I just read Bob Dancer's Jan 25th column

Actually it wasn't a huge loss at all. For a $125 a pop player to drop $30,000 - over two weeks - is the equivalent of a quarter player dropping $300. So alanleroy, just because you can't play with the big boys, that's no reason to pout.

Can't play and don't want to play are two different things.

forkush, youre probably right about his loss in relation to his bankroll and earnings and VP action. you wrote:

"Actually it wasn't a huge loss at all. For a $125 a pop player to drop $30,000 - over two weeks - is the equivalent of a quarter player dropping $300. So alanleroy, just because you can't play with the big boys, that's no reason to pout."

But consider who his audience is? who is buying his books and software and reading his column? If he wants to do stuff like this (and that doesn't "work" well) then let him and best of luck to him.

Again Im just surprised he went public with this. We all take shots once in a while, but he took his shot in a very public way and then wrote about how his "shot" cost him what most of his customers never could risk losing in a year -- and he lost it in a couple of days.

As I posted earlier, I can't wait to see if he has a follow up column to this one.

never mind again.


:::biting my tongue and leaving::::

Here's some more questions. What was the value of Dancer's column? What utility did it serve? And who is its audience? Are we to take it as an example of what we, as video poker players, should aspire to? Is this a column that video poker players will benefit from? Who will, in reality and the "long term," benefit more from thousands reading the column --- vp players or M? Dancer or casinos in general?

Please chime in everyone.

Good questions, redietz.

As a VP player I learned how much you could lose when all of your ducks are in order -- you play the right games, have the right cash back, have the right promotion, and you still lose a bundle. And the #1 VP expert spells out exactly (we think) what he lost (though he might have lost more).

Will the M or casinos benefit? heck no. We just saw how the #1 VP expert playing the best games with the best promotions lost a bundle. So, if Dancer took such a beating, what chance do the rest of us have???? It almost makes you swear youll stop playing VP forever.

No, issue is not the results of a single play. That is just nuts.

What part of "advantage" don't you understand? If a player KNEW they were going to lose then of course they wouldn't play. Duh. The fact is all one can do is determine whether the odds are in their favor. Once that is determined then a smart gambler goes ahead and makes the gamble. They KNOW they might lose this time but they also know that over time with the odds are in their favor they will win. What is so hard to understand about that simple fact.

The fact you can cherry pick one situation and claim that has any meaning is just about as short sighted as it gets. There's no nice way to say it. In fact, I'll bet Dancer is having a good laugh at all the losers claiming a one time event has any meaning whatsoever. All you are doing is making a complete fool out of yourself.

Now, let's apply your logic to my results so far this year. I am playing with an advantage. I have played 5 times so far. I lost the first 3 times and won the last two. Did the fact I lost those first 3 trips have any meaning at all? What if I didn't tell you about the last two winning trips, does that change anything as to whether I was making a good bet?

What utter nonsense. What Dancer does in two days of playing has nothing to do with what "the rest of us" do. I've lost 8 sessions in a row during winning years. Losing two sessions in a row is not the least bit unusual. As I mentioned above I lost my first 3 sessions this year.

In addition, while it's likely the M won during this promotion, we really don't know. Other players could have been lucky. One dealt RF on the 50-play machine Dancer was playing would yield $100K and make up for everything Dancer lost and more.

Once again I see the same type of illogical thinking going on. Dancer is not special in any way once he sits down at a machine. He is hitting the buttons just like the rest of us and using the very same expert strategy as any other good player. Making any assumptions based on his results is beyond silly.

There's always a shade of ego in most of Dancer's columns. Telling everyone that he gambles at high stakes shows up constantly. However, he is also instructing people that everyone loses now and then. There are actually people that have read his columns and believed they were assured a win every time, even with a very small edge. So, hopefully this column helps quell that type of thinking.

In fact, given the response this column has received at various websites it may be one of his better columns. Unfortunately, there appears to be several people who simply can't understand simple logic and have no problem posting their ignorance.

I'll preface this by stating that I wasn't in town while this promo was running nor received an invite so I can't give you the particulars.

Bob claims to have "strategized" that it would take $2.5M coin in at the start of the contest to perhaps dissuade others from trying to win. He also hoped that it wasn't necessary to run through up to $10M but he indicated he was willing to do so.

I continue to struggle with his "feeling" versus what he knew for "fact". In hindsight, the $2.5M of coin in would have stuck and there was no need for addition risk but this is an easy game when looking in the rear view mirror.

If, based on either inside information or a posted "leader board", he had an extremely high degree of certainty that some figure between $2.5-10M of coin in would lock up the car, then it was a risk worth taking. The math shows that even if he ran $10M coin in, the overall theo was north of $200/hr. Therefore, he wasn't "taking a shot" but rather employed a well calculated strategy.

It should be noted that the actual results don't matter....we're discussing whether or not this was a prudent endeavor and I contend that if he knew with absolute certainty that $10M or less of coin in would win the car, then yes, it was prudent.

A few comments in response to other posts:

1. Who said other than Singer that he is partnering with someone else on this? Jeffrey Compton is his business partner but I doubt his gambling partner. In fact, I heard recently that Jeffrey has since retired. While I don't claim to have any intimate knowledge on Dancer, I would certainly suggest that the last person who knows anything about him is Singer.

2. I don't know the specific laws in NV but in FL you can't assign a MSO (Manufacturer's Statement of Origin) without being a licensed motor vehicle dealer. If this applies to NV, than Mr. Bob will have to take title, pay the sales tax, register and insure it before he could sell it. At that point it would not be titled as a new car but that's just a play on words....the car would essentially be new and the warranty would remain in effect.

3. Once again, unless something changed at the 11th hour, Dancer was "forced" to take the car and there was no negotiation for a cash or free play settlement.

4. There just isn't pleasing some people. Dancer admits to a $80K loss before the net value of the car and the conspiracy theories fall out of the closet. "Did he admit to all his losses?" WTF folks? People want to see "stars" fall and yet when it happens, people are questioning it. I can't help wonder where this thread would have gone if Dancer said he was a $80K winner plus the car.

5. I don't believe there was any deep thinking here. I think it's Dancer once again trying to make a few points...today's score doesn't matter....how to evaluate a promotion.....the relentless persuit of a goal. This gambling for a living is hard work folks....it sounds glamourous to some but just consider this aspect: how would you feel if you went to work on a given day and actually paid for having to do it?

6. As pointed out by some and likely experienced by most (other than the clown in AZ who locks up his wins but retired because it was too easy a way to make money), you're going to have more losing sessions than winning ones. If Dancer just wrote about the winners, how credible would he be? In gambling, losing sessions are likely a bigger story than winning ones.

The real issue here is what would you do if you had the financial resources to compete in this promo? Given the right size bankroll, the play itself was pretty strong. A $25 RF make his loss all better and then some.

Dan