The Inevitable Math of Pensions, . . .

. . . especially public pensions.

"Some American disasters come as bolts from the blue -- the stock market crash of October 1929, Pearl Harbor, the designated hitter, 9/11. Others are predictable because they arise from arithmetic that is neither hidden nor arcane. Now comes the tsunami of pension problems that will wash over many cities and states."
Ref:
America's Pension Problems

Rosy economic projections [politics], folks living longer [predictable], sluggish economies [predictable], historically low interest rates [unwise politics], and especially politicians promising more than can be delivered [normal behavior] pretty much insure that pension promises cannot be met.

As Mr. Will concludes: "The problems of state and local pensions are cumulatively huge. The problems of Social Security and Medicare are each huge, but in 2016 neither candidate addressed them, and today's White House chief of staff vows that the administration will not 'meddle' with either program. Demography, however, is destiny for entitlements, so arithmetic will do the meddling."
[boldface added - DD]

That which cannot happen will not happen.

DonDiego supposes there'll be significant unpleasantness within the United States over the next 20 years.

Why does Don Diego hate our country so?
No doubt pensions are a problem and I believe the crisis California is facing right now might provide the quintessential learning example of "what not to do". Although it not always an attribute of politicians promising something they know they cant deliver. Michigan's government had no way of knowing the automobile industry would leave the state in droves and also be subject to massive automization....or predict an economic recession on the scale we had in 2008. All three of which lie at the heart of their pension problems.

But in any case I would agree the pension system is antiquated and much too vulnerable to unforeseen variables in the future. This is an issue I largely agree with conservatives on. Don't tell anyone.
Right now as California roads crumble and we have no dams for water collection, our great governor[/sarcasm] is heavily influenced by unions to do everything to preserve state pensions and to create a bullet train that is an absolute farce. California can only raise taxes so much. Bankruptcy is inevitable and you can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Oh, to add to that. Our great governor has not wanted to build new prisons and has been heavily behind two propositions that let criminals out early. We now have 40% higher crime. Las Vegas is attributing their spike in crime to the early release of criminals in California. A policeman was just shot to death the other day by a gang member who got released early and three other police deaths are attributable to this early release program. This state is so screwed up.

Quote

Originally posted by: billryan
Why does Don Diego hate our country so?

DonDiego suggests billryan has erred in confusing a simple mathematical explanation of the inevitable consequences of politicians, and others, making financial promises, . . . which cannot, in fact, be met,, . . . to citizens who are unaware of the mathematical impossibility of fulfillment of the promises. . . with an expression of hatred of one's Country.

DonDiego trusts the error was unintentional.

DonDiego enjoys his life in the United States and the protections offered him under the Constitution. He bears the Country no ill will.

He does, however, hate the flimflammery of those who make impossible promises which deceive the citizenry in exchange for personal power. The results of such broken promises can be devastating.
Somehow these pension schemes remind me of Bernie Madoff. Take a lesson from Fresno....my town.

“Fresno is in great shape when compared nationally. Hopefully they will be a model for California sinkholes like Los Angeles and San Francisco."


Fresno Ranked second for best pension related financial health among 50 largest cities.
Look on the bright side. The USC cheerleaders and quite attractive.


Quote

Originally posted by: Roulette Man
Right now as California roads crumble and we have no dams for water collection, our great governor[/sarcasm] is heavily influenced by unions to do everything to preserve state pensions and to create a bullet train that is an absolute farce. California can only raise taxes so much. Bankruptcy is inevitable and you can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Oh, to add to that. Our great governor has not wanted to build new prisons and has been heavily behind two propositions that let criminals out early. We now have 40% higher crime. Las Vegas is attributing their spike in crime to the early release of criminals in California. A policeman was just shot to death the other day by a gang member who got released early and three other police deaths are attributable to this early release program. This state is so screwed up.


Quote

Originally posted by: Roulette Man
Right now as California roads crumble and we have no dams for water collection, our great governor[/sarcasm] is heavily influenced by unions to do everything to preserve state pensions and to create a bullet train that is an absolute farce. California can only raise taxes so much. Bankruptcy is inevitable and you can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Oh, to add to that. Our great governor has not wanted to build new prisons and has been heavily behind two propositions that let criminals out early. We now have 40% higher crime. Las Vegas is attributing their spike in crime to the early release of criminals in California. A policeman was just shot to death the other day by a gang member who got released early and three other police deaths are attributable to this early release program. This state is so screwed up.


California AG gives very different crime statistics. He says while violent crime went up ten percent, overall crime went down and both categories are well down from twenty years ago.
Does RM have a source to back his 40% spike in crime?
One of the two is very wrong.

Unfortunately, there is only one crime stat that can be trusted, and that's for murder. All other stats can be fiddled with.


Quote

Originally posted by: billryan
Quote

Originally posted by: Roulette Man
Right now as California roads crumble and we have no dams for water collection, our great governor[/sarcasm] is heavily influenced by unions to do everything to preserve state pensions and to create a bullet train that is an absolute farce. California can only raise taxes so much. Bankruptcy is inevitable and you can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Oh, to add to that. Our great governor has not wanted to build new prisons and has been heavily behind two propositions that let criminals out early. We now have 40% higher crime. Las Vegas is attributing their spike in crime to the early release of criminals in California. A policeman was just shot to death the other day by a gang member who got released early and three other police deaths are attributable to this early release program. This state is so screwed up.


California AG gives very different crime statistics. He says while violent crime went up ten percent, overall crime went down and both categories are well down from twenty years ago.
Does RM have a source to back his 40% spike in crime?
One of the two is very wrong.


Quote

Originally posted by: billryan
Quote

Originally posted by: Roulette Man
Right now as California roads crumble and we have no dams for water collection, our great governor[/sarcasm] is heavily influenced by unions to do everything to preserve state pensions and to create a bullet train that is an absolute farce. California can only raise taxes so much. Bankruptcy is inevitable and you can only kick the can down the road so many times.

Oh, to add to that. Our great governor has not wanted to build new prisons and has been heavily behind two propositions that let criminals out early. We now have 40% higher crime. Las Vegas is attributing their spike in crime to the early release of criminals in California. A policeman was just shot to death the other day by a gang member who got released early and three other police deaths are attributable to this early release program. This state is so screwed up.


California AG gives very different crime statistics. He says while violent crime went up ten percent, overall crime went down and both categories are well down from twenty years ago.
Does RM have a source to back his 40% spike in crime?
One of the two is very wrong.



IT's THE IRISH! I'm sure of it.
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