Kentucky Derby - 2015

A few hours before the Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao SuperFight in Las Vegas, the 141st Kentucky Derby will be run in Louisville.

Here are the contenders:

PP / horse / (weight) / jockey / trainer / odds

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (126) Trujillo/Cassidy 50-1
2. Carpe Diem (126) Velazquez/Pletcher 8-1
3. Materiality (126) Castellano/Pletcher 12-1
4. Tencendur (126) Franco/Weaver 30-1
5. Danzig Moon (126) Leparoux/Casse 30-1
6. Mubtaahij (126) Soumillon/de Kock 20-1
7. El Kabeir (126) Borel/Terranova 30-1
8. Dortmund (126) Garcia/Baffert 3-1
9. Bolo (126) Bejarano/Gaines 30-1
10. Firing Line (126) Stevens/Callaghan 12-1
11. Stanford (126) Geroux/Pletcher 30-1
12. International Star (126) Mena/Maker 20-1
13. Itsaknockout (126) Saez/Pletcher 30-1
14. Keen Ice (126) Desormeaux/Romans 50-1
15. Frosted (126) Rosario/McLaughlin 15-1
16. War Story (126) Talamo/Amoss 50-1
17. Mr. Z (126) Vazquez/Lukas 50-1
18. American Pharoah (126) Espinoza/Baffert 5-2
19. Upstart (126) Ortiz/Violette 15-1
20. Far Right (126) Smith/Moquett 30-1
21. (AE) Frammento (126) Nakatani/Zito 50-1
22. (AE) Tale of Verve (126) Hernandez Jr./Stewart 50-1

DonDiego suggests the class of the race is represented by the favorite, American Pharaoh @ 5-2, Dortmund @ 3-1 (based upon his performance in the Santa Anita Derby), and Materiality @ 12-1 (based upon the Florida Derby win, although he hasn't raced much).

Beyond that DonDiego likes the longer odds offered on Frosted @ 15-1 (based on his speed at the Wood Memorial win, and that he is grey), and long-shot Tencendur @ 30-1 (based upon the second-place in the Wood Memorial; also in PP #4 he might not have to run as wide as in his previous races).

So, that's it: combine 3, 4, 8, 15, and 18 on all one's parlays and exactas, and enjoy the profits.
DonDiego'd combine 8 and 15 for thrills.
DonDiego'd pr'bly combine 4 and 15 for really big payoffs.

"Mr Z" is not a good name for a race horse. Sounds like he's taking a nap.

AlanLeroy likes Firing Line.

Don Diego many on here will find it hard to believe that you don't like the #20 Horse(I am not one of them). I bet the derby every year and after much futility over 30 years with the racing form, past performances and expert's analysis, I am picking numbers, names, grandkids b'day, etc. Actually with all the love for the 2 favorites it might be a good time to pick up some nice odds on the others. Crowded racing field, dirt in the face, bad jockey rides, etc. The unknowns exceed the number of possible equations, means underdetermined. I'm going to box 10 horses in a $1 exacta for $90 at my local OTB.

El Kabier a potential nice longshot play with Calvin Borel now up. Save ground on the rail - let the pace play out - then close.

The chalk in recent history has a bad record of winning this race. I will take the Santa Anita Derby winner, Dortmund, with Bob Baffert the trainer. At 3 to 1 he could easily become the favorite at post time.

Thanks DD for the listing. Since the racino is only just up the road, I'm putting down a 20 spot on an exacta and maybe a few more bets.

8,9,10 and 15 - on the superfecta

American Pharoah is tough to bet against. But he won't pay.

Wheel International Star on top (#12 over everybody), and see what happens.

If Frammento draws in, put a wager across the board. He closes from way back.

I like Mr. Z, sounds like a Vegas high roller. Box him in something, a tri or superfecta.

8 over 2, 6, 15 and 16.

Then again, I have never cashed a ticket on the derby in 36 years

Oh, . . . here's an online source for handicapping. When one clicks on one of the entrants, one is sent to a page detailing that entrant. And on each page there is a link to the Daily Racing Form "Past Performances" history.

Kentucky Derby - 2015

DonDiego says "Good Luck".

Poor old DonDiego'd have to go down off'n the ridge and a few towns o'er to get to an off-track wagering establishment. But, iff'n the weather were good tomorrow, he might go make a wager or two including #8 Dortmund and #15 Frosted, . . . maybe combining' 'em with #18 American Pharaoh - although he don't much cotton to ever bettin' the favorite, . . . or not.