July 19-26 Trip Report
Warning: This trip report contains graphic math content; it is not for the numerically squeamish.
Prelude:
I am a random Midwesterner who visits Las Vegas 3-4 times a year. This trip was number 37 in the last 11 years. I now play one game exclusively; 10/7 Double Bonus video poker. I play at the 50 cent level. I play fast and I play a lot. This trip I played more than usual as my wife opted for Boston and I was solo. On most trips she comes with me and I spend fewer hours gambling and more time on the activities that she enjoys.
My last few trips I have kept detailed records of my play, this is part hobby, part tax recordkeeping and part anal obsession resulting from an accounting degree. I will sprinkle in some random comments along with the gambling results to make it seem like I might be a normal person. The records do help me to get an understanding of the results. Knowing how volatility impacts my bankroll keeps me going through the rough stretches and prevents me from getting over confident when winning seems easy.
Basic info on 10/7 double bonus:
It helps in reading this report to know some basics for those unfamiliar with the game. You can skip this if you know the game. It is video poker with a return of 100.17% and a variance of 28.25. The strategy takes some time and practice to master. The big hands are a royal flush which returns 4000 credits or at the 50 cent denomination $2,000, quad aces win $400, quad 2s 3s and 4s win $200, quad 5s through Kings along with straight flushes win $125. The return of over 100% with accurate play gives you a fighting chance to win, but the variance requires a healthy bankroll and ensures that you never forget that it is gambling.
Tuesday – July 19
I flew in on Frontier and arrived an hour late. I picked up rental car and drove to Red Rock. I checked in with no wait and was playing by about 7pm. They have nice Optimum Play machines at Red Rock, there are 26 machines with my game, they are all slant-tops with anti-glare screens. I played 4,224 hands the first night, finishing up around 11pm, which is way too late central time for a mid-fifties guy who is not a night owl. I lost $500 in that first session despite hitting the following quads: 6s 8s Js 7s Qs 9s As 2s Qs 2s in that order. That number of quads is very average for 4,224 hands; the bottom of the paytable contributed most of my loss for the night.
Random observation of the day:
While waiting in the Denver airport for my Las Vegas leg; the gate area was crowded and I found a place to stand along a wall behind a gate podium. There were five cardboard boxes stacked up behind the desk area. They each contained 5,000 ear-bud head phones and the boxes said: Made in China. The company name on these boxes was Global In-flight Products. They listed their website address on the boxes; it was GIPUSA.COM.
Wednesday-July 20
I woke up way too early with my internal alarm still on central time. I spent some time in the room getting organized, stalling until after the 6am opening of the Starbucks. Coffee is an early morning need for me, it is not an option. Coffee in hand I settled in for the pre-breakfast session. It was a lot like the prior evening. Three hours of play, 3,262 hands and another $500 loss. I hit 7 quads and was dealt a straight flush. Six of the quads were 5-K and the other was quad 3s. Seven hours of play, down $1,000, not a very good start, time for breakfast.
I ate at the Feast buffet, quick, cheap (paid with points) and nice crispy bacon. Buffet for breakfast is my normal routine in Las Vegas. I’m not much of a foodie so any comprehensive elaborate descriptions of the selections and salivation inspiring soliloquies of special selections will not be found in this trip report.
The after breakfast session was amazing. I have been playing this game for years and have seen some strange results, but this stood out. I played a long session even for me, it was 5,008 hands. I hit quad Aces three times during the session. That is rare, but what is even stranger was that I only won $100. The other decent hands were 5 quads all 5-K. My memory is shorter than my playing career, but I only recall two other three quad Ace sessions, the other two were big winners. In 10/7 Double Bonus you hit quad Aces every 5,030 hands on average. They often make the difference between a winning or a losing session. Looking at the numbers though, it is surprising that I won at all, because the lack of other quads more than offset the “extra” two quad aces.
After a break and some mid-afternoon iced coffee I played another three hours before diner. I didn’t hit quad aces, but I did hit quad 2s twice and quad 4s along with six 5-K quads and a straight flush. The net result was another loss; I dropped $300 and was now down $1,200 for the trip.
Dinner at Cabo refreshed my energy. The sopapillas for dessert dipped in honey were a big part of that formula. Despite the early poor results I headed back to the machines with a sugar buzz and a positive attitude. I had a feeling this next session would be a good one.
My positive outlook was challenged severely to start the last session of the day. I put $600 in the machine and had only hit quad queens. The bill acceptor was the only part of this machine that seemed to be functioning well. Then things turned around big time. I hit quad aces as my credits were once again dwindling, then not too many hands later; I held _ _ Q K A of diamonds and the Jack and Ten filled in. The hand ended up JTQKA, if they had filled in the other way it would have been a sequential.
Whew, I quickly went from looking at being down $1,800 for the trip to being ahead $200 with $400+ in credits on the machine. When you play fast like I do, you don’t hesitate at all when holding three to a royal flush. When you get dealt four to a royal, you stop and pause and think about what card you need and depending on how bad you need it, you may pray a little; or a lot. But holding three it is just bang, all of a sudden you have a royal. It is more of a shock than a relief or a celebration.
After the hand pay my credits did dwindle a little before I got another shock hand. I hit quad aces holding just one ace. The rest of the session was declining credits interrupted with dealt quad 4s, quad Jacks, Kings and Queens. I was hoping for another rush of luck, but I guess I used it all up. I cashed out with the meter down to $200. The session win was a $1,600 and I was now up $400 for the trip. It was a long day I played a total of 14,842 hands, which is a lot, even for a degenerate like me.
Trip Totals end of day Wednesday-July 20
Hands played: 19,066
Total wagered: $47,664
Hands Breakdown
Royal Flush: 1
Straight Flush: 2
Quad Aces: 6
Quad 2-3-4: 7
Quad 5-K: 28
Given the number of hands I played and the average appearance frequency, this is the average number of the high paying hands: (rounded to two decimals)
Royal Flush: 0.40
Straight Flush: 2.16
Quad Aces: 3.79
Quad 2-3-4: 9.99
Quad 5-K: 30.65
The difference between the expected and the realized is multiplied by the hand return to produce a dollar variance amount, positive variances are signified with a + sign, negative with a – sign.
Royal Flush: + $1,206
Straight Flush: - $20
Quad Aces: + $884
Quad 2-3-4: - $598
Quad 5-K: - $332
Total Variance of big hands: + $1,141
When you add up this variance amount and compare it to my actual results of + $400 you can see that there is a negative variance of - $741 not accounted for in the big hands. This variance is in the number of lesser hands, full houses, flushes, straights, three of a kinds, two pairs, high pairs and the number of non-paying hands. The lesser hands are more likely to balance out over time, but since the frequency of these hands is high even a minor percentage variance can add up to a significant dollar amount.
Random observation of the day:
During a morning session I took a machine at one end of a row of slant tops. There was one other player on the bank of five machines at the other end of the bank. After playing for a while the player at the far end started down the line of machines, playing a little while at each machine and finally parked next to me. I never have understood such activity. Here we are now in a casino on a weekday morning, there is only sparse play and two players are next to each other on an otherwise empty row. During the next session I played at a different bank, this same player comes along and sits at the far end of the row. He again makes his way to the machine next to me. Maybe I have a magnetic personality. Maybe the guy wanted to be my friend. Maybe he was just a superstitious weirdo player and I was a random victim of idiotic interloping
Thursday-July 21
It felt good to wake up the next day, with a fresh start and a lead instead of being behind. The morning started in the usual way, with a stop at Starbucks and parking at a machine. An early dealt straight flush made it seem that this might be another lucky session, but that was not to be. I went through $500 in the next hour plus with only quad 9s interrupting the losing. Knowing the small lead I had was gone already, I decided to quit and go up and pack my bags for my move before breakfast rather than put in another hundred.
After breakfast and getting ready for my next destination, I gave the Red Rock one more shot at my bankroll. I would end up leaving the Red Rock with fond memories of my stay. I hit quad 2s fairly early in the session and built a nice balance with quad tens and dealt quad 7s. Then I got another shocker royal flush. Holding A Q of spades, the T J K filled in. Wow, at this point I was feeling pretty good, two Royal Flushes only hours of play apart. Sweet! I have had two royals this close together four or five other times in my playing career, but the thrill was not diminished by past memories.
After the hand pay I finished the session off with quad 4s 2s and then quad 5s twice. They were spaced out enough so that it took a while, but I cashed out with a $2,500 win including the royal. I did the video checkout; I had booked on a mailed room offer for two free nights. The balance on the TV screen was zero. No hassles, I love it when things go according to plan. I left the keys in the room and trucked my bag to my rental car.
Main Street Station (MSS) was my next stop; I had three comped nights set up for Thursday through Sunday. The slot card system at MSS has a time delay and gives you your points balance only when you first insert your card. It is possible to track your hands played each session, but I didn’t bother. There are limits to my anal record keeping. I know my total hands played there but could not tell you how many hands each session were.
I arrived late morning and left my bags in the car, deciding to play until it was check-in time. My first session at MSS was not too good, I hit six quads; 6s, 5s, 8s, 2s, 7s and 2s again; but that is not enough for the four hours I sat there, and the result was a $400 loss. After checking in to the room and getting organized I played another session before diner. I hit three quads, 9s, 5s and 7s and two Straight Flushes, but broke even. During this session I had random VP oddity that I jotted down. I hit back to back to back full houses. I know that I have hit two in a row a few times, but three in a row is rare.
I had dinner at the Triple 7 Brew Pub. My offer included the Aloha food coupon book and so, being a tightwad, I stick to menu items that are free. I had a mushroom Swiss burger and a root beer, it was good comfort food. The after dinner play started out really bad, I stuck in $600 before hitting a quad. I ended up the night session with five 5-K quads and quad 4s and 2s; again just not enough given the time on the machine and I walked away down another $400.
MSS has an ongoing promotion called “Score with Four”. It awards scratch cards for every quad and for straight flushes and royal flushes. These cards are mostly worth $2 with some $3 sprinkled in, these days any card worth more is pretty rare. I collected 18 for the day; 17 were $2 and one was $3. These do add up and are a nice bonus. I don’t count them in my gambling stats, but they are part of the value of playing at MSS. On 10/7 double bonus you will get a scratch card on average every 407 hands. When playing at 50 cents, this adds about 0.2% to your edge even using $2.00 as the scratch card average. For quarter players it would be double. This addition of the scratch cards is minor, but it even effects one close play in 10/7 double bonus strategy. When dealt AA along with another pair, you dump the second pair. This does add additional variance to the game and on this trip, this strategy tweak did not pay off for me, because I did not catch quad Aces as a result. In fact, with a lot of play at MSS, I can only remember one time when it did hit, but I guess that “paid for” the cost of a lot of misses.
End of the day totals: lost $500 Tuesday; won $900 Wednesday and won $1,200 today. I went to bed up $1,600 for the trip, thankful for the two lucky royals, but thinking it wasn’t a big lead considering the amount of play I had yet in front of me.
Random observation of the day:
On my drive from Red Rock to MSS I decided to just take Charleston all the way to Main Street. I know it is faster to jump on the highway, but I was in no rush and I like to see the sites a little. Along Charleston for that stretch there is a lot of retail space. Small strip malls and store of every sort line the way. I noted at least four individuals along the route holding sign boards attempting to make customers out of the people driving by in their cars. That has to be a pretty low success rate. All four did so in an enthusiastic manner, waving the big signs so much that they were hard to read. This was on a day when it was in the low 100s. With so many people out of work in Las Vegas, I’m sure these people were glad to have the job and at least it is better than being a porn slapper, but that can’t be an easy way to make a buck. Seeing such things prompt me to count my blessings.
Friday-July 22
I got off to a good start Friday morning. A quick walk across the skyway to Lappert's Ice Cream and Coffee at the California for my morning coffee started things off right. I had my choice of the 12 slant top VP machines at MSS, with no other players up early. MSS has these 12 machines and 9 uprights with my game, so there are plenty of spots to choose from. I prefer the slant tops and if I can get on the end of a row I usually choose those so that I can stretch my legs out to the side. I’m a tall guy at 6’4” and staying comfortable for a long session can be a challenge. The slant tops at MSS all have a bit of a glare problem; the lighting along with the smooth glass screens can make it tough to see the cards well. Some machines in the bank are better than others depending on the positions of the overhead lights.
I hit quad queens on my first $100 in the machine and quad jacks followed. Not long after that I hit quad Aces and my credit balance on the machine was looking good. Then I hit quad threes followed by quad aces again. That last hit put the machine credits over the $1,000 mark. Seeing your credits over the 1K on a machine is still a thrill for me. This was the lone time it happened this trip, some past trips I have seen it multiple times. What is even better is to put a machine into “spit ticket mode” The machines at MSS spit out tickets when you have a win that puts the credit total over $1,200. I was hoping to get this machine into that mode, but it was not to be. That was the end of the “hot cycle”. 10/7 Double Bonus is a streaky game. I played the credits down to the $700 mark and cashed out a $600 win without hitting another quad. A win is a win though and it was a fine way to start the day, especially compared to the two previous early morning sessions, which were both $500 losses.
Breakfast at the MSS Garden Court Buffett was the same as it every was. Manuel’s shtick and friendly banter never gets old. Manuel, for those not familiar is “the omelet guy” at MSS and he provides the morning buffet entertainment. “Good morning” “How are you today young man” “Welcome Back” He always tells me welcome back, I have no idea whether he really recognizes me from past trips or whether he just says that to most customers. He can easily juggle half a dozen omelets on his stove while chatting it up with those in line. “You want jalapenos?” “You have to be 21 to have jalapenos” “you want chicken eggs?” Maybe I’m just easily amused, but he always puts a smile on my face.
After breakfast I touch base with a friend from the Las Vegas Advisor forum. He and his wife are at the Palms and he is in town working on the camera crew for ShowTime Sports. They are filming the MMA Strikeforce fight card in the Pearl Theater at the Palms later tonight. We agree to meet up at the Palms for lunch to catch up. We had met up on a couple of previous trips and he is quite the character.
Prior to my lunch excursion I played another session, it was back to the other end of the bell curve from the pre-breakfast session. I hit quad Js, Ts, 7s, Ks and 4s. Where were those Red Rock sessions with 10 quads? I lost back $500, I just couldn’t seem to put together back to back winning sessions. Oh, well at least I was still up $100 on the day.
A quick run down I-15 in the rental car had me to the Palms within minutes and I met up with my friend. We will call him Tom, because his name is Tom. He had another friend and Las Vegas Advisor member named Scott. Tom’s wife was at the pool, so I didn’t get to see her. We had a light lunch at Blue Agave and talked all things Las Vegas. After lunch Tom took us on a tour of the StrikeForce cage set-up in the Pearl Theater. Tom gave me a nice ball cap and T-Shirt with ShowTime Sports logos as a memento. I’m not really into MMA, my spectator sport of choice is football, but Tom seemed to know a lot about the sport and I was happy to see that he was enjoying his work. Thanks to Tommywishbone for a nice break during my marathon gambling week.
I drove back to MSS through stop and go traffic on I-15 after this nice break from gambling and played three more sessions before calling it a night. The first of the three was a $400 loser with quad Ks, quad Js dealt, quad Tens dealt, quad Js and quad Qs. If face cards quads were bonus hands it would have been a good session.
The next session was a real groaner. I got dealt quad aces early in the session, but no quads at all after that. I played away the $400 in credits from the dealt aces and followed up with a double Benjamin chaser for a $300 loss.
The last session of the day after the MSS Seafood Buffet was finally a winner, but only $200. I hit quad 5s, 2s, 3s, 3s again, 6s and 4s. Fortunately all but two of the six quads were of the 2-3-4 $200 variety and this made the session a winner. The total for the day was a $400 loss, which is not bad, but after the first session’s $600 win it seemed a little worse than that. Kay Sarah Sarah. (Yes, I know that is incorrect nomenclature) (No, I’m not sure that nomenclature is the proper term for such a faux pas)
I went to bed early for a Friday night in Las Vegas still up $1,200 for the trip. The casino was hopping; there was a very good crowd. I cashed in 22 scratch cards for the day; there was a lone $3 one in the group, so I added another $45 to my wallet.
Random observation of the day:
The line for the MSS Seafood buffet was long; it took just over an hour to move through. I had too much time to think while in line. As I mentioned I’m 6’4”, which is tall, but hopefully, not freakishly so. In the MSS buffet line however, with a large percentage of Hawaiian clientele, I felt a bit out of place. I was taller than anyone else in line and a full head taller than the vast majority. Humans really do come in all shapes and sizes. What if the 1.3 billion people in China were all above average in size instead of below average? Assuming that it takes more calories to maintain a large body, how much more food would it take to keep all those people fed? The world is probably lucky that China is not filled with the big wide beef eaters that are common in the Midwest of the USA. Sorry, as I said, I was in line too long.
Saturday-July 23
I started Saturday morning with two good things, a cup of coffee and quad aces. Eventually though, my coffee was gone along with the credits. I hit quad Js, 7s, 2s and Qs to follow, but they were space out too far and only interrupted the gradual decline in credits. I broke even for the session. The after breakfast session was similar in result and in inverse order. I lost a few hundred before hitting quad 9s, Qs, 5s and Js to slow the losing, but finished with quad aces to get back to square one. In both sessions I got dealt four to a royal several times. I had a few four to a royal chances smattered in with in other sessions this trip, but in these two sessions I think I had seven chances needing just that one elusive card. An ace of spades teased me instead of the ace of clubs, but when it comes to these hands, a miss is a miss.
I took a break at lunch time, using one of my Aloha coupons for some wings at the Triple Seven. It seemed the trip to this point was either plunging down or spiking up, breaking even for the first half of the day seemed strange.
I would have gladly broken even for the rest of the day if I knew what the next session would be like. I went through $700+ without a single quad. It didn’t even take that long to lose that much. It didn’t get much better after that. I did hit quad 7s twice then quad Qs, Ks, and Js, but when I ended my play for dinner time I had lost $1,200 for the session and was back to even for the trip. Even for a guy used to the game and its wicked variance it is tough suffering through such a session. I quit the session early partly in disgust and took a walk down to Fremont Street before dinner. I wanted to scope out any new things and to do some souvenir shopping. It was a little toasty outside, so it turned out to be a fairly short trip.
Dinner at the Triple 7 was another burger, this time the BBQ bacon cheeseburger. As I said earlier, I’m not a foodie, but I do think I know burgers. IMHO Triple 7 does a pretty good job on pub fare. Maybe it is just that food always tastes better when it is free.
Saturday Night. Las Vegas. Even for the trip. Which way are we going from here, up or down? Neither. Just like the two morning sessions I broke even for the night session. I hit quad Qs twice and fortunately hit 2s twice and 3s. The session lasted pretty late, so the bottom of the paytable must have provided a lot of support. Sometimes in 10/7 Double Bonus you can play for a half hour and vacillate your credit balance in the same $50 range. It goes low and a couple flushes or a full house bump you back, then you rinse and repeat. Other times you can go through a hundred in ten minutes. The mellow sessions with very little roller coaster action are a lot easier on the psyche.
By the end of my play Saturday night MSS was pretty packed. Most of the machines in the place were occupied and there was a cacophony from the craps pit. While there is a good vibe that goes with playing in a packed house, I prefer a quiet morning with the only voice being the occasional call of the wild cocktail. With high hopes that tomorrow would be a better day, I called it quits earlier than most of my fellow gamblers. I had only 20 scratch cards for the day, which may sound like a lot, but in a typical full day of play at MSS 30 is closer to an average number. Just to add a little salt to the day’s wounds they were all $2, not a $3 one in the bunch.
Random observation of the day:
On my walk to Fremont Street I took the indoor route. I went across the sky-bridge to the Cal and through Vegas Club. What a contrast. Vegas Club used to be on a par with MSS and the Cal, they had some good games and good crowds. I stayed there a couple of trips several years ago when I was playing a lot of quarter FP KBJW. They had a good slot club, some decent food choices and some nice employees. I can still picture some of the cocktail waitress in their cheerleader outfits and tennis shoes spritely moving about the floor, with their cheery smiles and their … Um, I better stop there. Anyway my point is boy has this place ever been run into the ground. MSS and Cal are still going strong, but ever since Jackie Gaughan sold the Las Vegas Club it has been going downhill. Walking through there this past Saturday, the place was dead. The back area has seen several different schemes, but nothing they try back there attracts players. The central mall/dining area looks nice enough, but was empty. The main casino only had a few players, especially compared to the Cal and MSS. They had signs plastered everywhere announcing 40% looser machines, but as far as I know the VP inventory has not improved. 40% looser than way too tight is still too tight. Back when I was staying there they had a lot of full pay VP at the quarter level and good steady repeat customers. It sure is a lot easier to drive away players than it is to attract them. (In the edit process I see that the grumpy old man in me came out in this rant. Hrumph, it’s not like it was in the good old days. Hrumph. #@$$# where’s my bunion pills.)
Sunday-July 24
When you first wake up the day after a big loss or big win, in the early seconds of foggy groggy brain, you run through in your head, did I really win/lose that much? If it was a big loss, realization that it was not a dream comes on like a hangover, if the prior day was a big win; you get another shot of thrill to start the day. This morning fell into the first bucket. I woke up saying to myself; “Damn, do I really have to start over from scratch?” But, but, but I have had two royals and quad aces 11 times, can I really be back to even? Like a cold slap on the face, reality has a way of defying all preconceptions. I decided to look at the glass as half full, I could easily be at this point of the trip with a devastated bankroll and the gripping fear of busting out for the trip. I’ve been there and done that, it isn’t pretty. Instead I have two days yet to play and a fully stocked bankroll.
Bring it on, coffee and video poker. I started out with a quick hour long session. I hit 5 quads in the hour, well above pace, but they were all in the 5-K range. I cashed out a $100 win. I had an early breakfast and then walked to St. Joan of Arc for Sunday service. Hey, I may not get to Heaven, but at least if I don’t, it won’t be because I skipped church to gamble. The next session was a longer one; I hit quad 4s to get off to a good start and hit Ks, 7s and 4s again, but just could not get the credit balance up very high. Near the near the end of the session I held one ace and ended up with AQQQQ. I seem to catch one of those a trip, if I can catch four perfect cards holding one, why not a royal? I cashed out another $100 win and took a break to pack up my belongings for a move to the Palms.
I checked out and took my bags to the car and then came back into MSS to play some more. My past experience at the Palms has been that they often do not have rooms available before check-in time, so I decided to play at MSS until around 4pm before changing venues. I played another couple hours before taking a lunch break, I hit quad Aces again holding just one ace and also hit quad 8s, Qs and 2s. My win for the session was $100. It was like baby steps. $100….$100….$100….. at least it was going in the right direction.
I went to lunch up $300 for the trip. I ordered the Nachos Grande at the Triple 7 with the last of my Aloha coupons; it was way too much food for me. I’m not a big eater and I really didn’t make much of a dent in this platter full of gastrointestinal goodies.
After lunch I played my last session of the trip at MSS. It was a wash; I got 8 more scratch cards, hitting quad 9s three times, two straight flushes, 7s and Tens. No bonus quads hurt the effort, but I was happy to walk out of Main Street Station still up $300 for the trip. I cashed out my Score With Four cards for the day, I had 21 of them and 4 were $3 cards. That was one more card than “Black Saturday” in fewer hours of play. I also got my cash back and recorded my final point balance. The cash back was $66.00 and I learned that during my stay I bumped up to the emerald tier from sapphire. It took some big city ciphering to figure my hands played from the points, because at the emerald level you earn 3x point and at sapphire you earn at 2x points. The machines I play on are $3 to earn a point. Fortunately from my current tier level points I could calculate how many points were earned at each level, figure my total coin in and come up with the hands played. The total at MSS was 34,537 hands.
This break point provides a good place to insert my big hand variance stats:
Including my play at both MSS and Red Rock, trip total to date:
Hands played: 56,179
Total wagered: $140,447.50
Big Hands Breakdown
Royal Flush: 2
Straight Flush: 9
Quad Aces: 12
Quad 2-3-4: 27
Quad 5-K: 87
Given the number of hands I played and the average appearance frequency this is the average number of the high paying hands: (rounded to two decimals)
Royal Flush: 1.17
Straight Flush: 6.35
Quad Aces: 11.17
Quad 2-3-4: 29.44
Quad 5-K: 90.32
The difference between the expected and the realized is multiplied by the hand return to produce a dollar variance amount, positive variances are signified with a + sign, negative with a – sign.
Royal Flush: + $1,662
Straight Flush: + $331
Quad Aces: + $333
Quad 2-3-4: - $488
Quad 5-K: - $415
Total Variance of big hands: - $1,122
When you add up this variance amount and compare it to my actual results of + $300 there is a negative variance of - $1,122 not accounted for in the big hands. This variance is in the number of lesser hands, full houses, flushes, straights, three of a kinds, two pairs, high pairs and the number of non-paying hands. The bulk of the low hand variance $995 happened at Red Rock and the balance of $167 was at Main Street Station.
A common myth about VP in general is that whether you win or lose is tied directly to whether or not you get “your share” of royal flushes. They do have a big impact, but in this real life example you can see that even the low hands have a significant impact on results. Of the 56,179 hands I played the average number of non-paying hands would be 31,861. The very bottom of the paytable is subject to the same random variance as the rest of the paytable. Say you deviate by 1% from that average, that difference is 319 hands. Making that many hands into paying hands playing at $2.50 a hand is $797.50 even if they only return even money. This illustrates my statement after my first math summary: The lower hands are more likely to balance out over more hands played, but since the frequency of these hands is high, even a minor percentage variance can add up to a significant dollar amount.
Here is another little math exercise for those VP players who wonder why some of us are so particular about what paytables they will play. In the 56,179 hands I played to this point, the average number of full houses is 629 and the average number of flushes is 840. On a 9/6 Double Bonus machine that would be a difference of $1,572.50 and $2,100, next time you pick a machine, think about how lucky you have to be to overcome that level of a disadvantage. I will add the disclaimer that the frequency of both full houses and flushes is slightly different with optimal strategy on each of the respective paytables.
I’m off to the Palms for the last leg of my trip………
I made the quick trip down to the Palms from MSS in record time as the Sunday traffic was very light. Palms check-in went fine; they put me in the Fantasy tower; the room was in good order. It is quite a contrast going from Red Rock to MSS and then to Palms. MSS is fine for my needs, but the room quality at Red Rock and Palms is almost excessive for someone who spends as little time in the room as I do. I must mention that in my room at MSS, they had done an upgrade to the shower/tub. In the past the shower head was so low that it took some effort to stoop low enough to wash my hair. The room I stayed in had an upgraded water control handle and a higher shower head.
Back to gambling, after check in, I headed down to the casino to start my play. There are only four machines at the Palms that have my game (10/7 Double Bonus) at the 50 cent level. They are all at the bars, two are found at the Island Bar one each at the far East ends; one is at the Lounge bar, the machine closest to the Lounge entrance and one is at the East end of the Sports Book Bar on the North side of the bar. In the evenings it can be difficult to get a seat at these machines as the bars become packed with mostly young partiers lubricating their erotogenic engines. On my first venture to the casino, the Island bar machines were occupied as was the Lounge Bar machine, fortunately the Sports Book Bar machine was open and that bar was not crowded at all. I got started with a session not unlike my morning ones; I won $100 with quad Qs, 8s, Tens and Kings.
The after dinner sitting started out very well, I hit quad Aces again and had an almost moment holding three high suited cards ending up with a king high straight flush as the suited 9 filled in instead of the suited ace. A long drought followed and my $500+ in credits that I had built up were gone after a couple of hours. I only hit quad 7s and quad Qs the rest of the night and called it a night with a $100 loss for the evening. It was at least a $300 win for the day without any huge swings, days like that are not the norm with this roller coaster game.
Random observation of the day:
Dinner Sunday night was carryout from the McDonalds in the food court at the Palms. I wanted to make some phone calls to back home to my wife and one of my adult kids and do that while eating in my room. I ordered some chow and an iced coffee; randomly the total came to $7.00 even. I handed the McCrewmember a ten and he gave me back 2 singles. I paused, re-checked the register total and said “I think you shorted me a buck” holding out the 2 singles as my evidence. He didn’t blink or hesitate much and he handed me a dollar bill that he had in front of him on the counter without opening the till. Hmmmm. Really? You were going to short me a buck in change and stuff it in your pocket? While I can’t prove that was what was going on, the fact that he didn’t open the till to get the dollar is more than suspicious. It made me wonder if he was short changing customers on a regular basis, what his success rate was. How much could one generate on a shift using this scheme? What were the odds that he would get caught and fired over a measly buck? So many math questions, so little time.
Monday-July 25
The last full day was here, I’m up $300 for the trip and ready for a long hard day of play to finish off the trip. I started out with a session at the Lounge Bar machine; it is on a lower level than all but one other machine at the bar. It is a little more ergonomically comfortable than the other bar machines, but my comfort level did not translate into better results as I went through $400 without a single quad. I did tread water for a while and played a couple hours, but couldn’t hit anything big. I had my early morning coffee from the bar, I don’t recommend bar coffee in general, Palms isn’t bad, but I’ve become a bit of a coffee snob.
I had breakfast at the buffet. The cashier there told me that my slot card needed an upgrade, but she called the slot booth and verified whatever and I was able to pay with my points. I stopped at the slot club after breakfast to get a new one. Upon check-in I had been instructed to stop by the slot club and have them put the $40 in free play that was part of my offer on my card anyway, so I had two reasons to do so. The booth person seemed helpful enough, but told me his computer said that the $40 was to be promotional chips not free play and said I would need to go to the cage to get them. I didn’t protest, but it turns out that I should have. My mailed offer states: “$40 in Free Slot Play or Promotional Gaming Chips”. Harrumph, I should have taken the mailing to the booth, but it was up in my room. I never followed up by checking it and I didn’t get any promotional chips from the cage. In retrospect, two bad moves, I need assertiveness training.
The after breakfast session started with another $400 burned through without a quad. That was $800 in a row including the early morning session. Yikes, now I’m looking just to get back to even for the trip with some luck. Quad 8s on my fifth Benjamin provided a spark and then holding AKQ of diamonds I got lucky with another royal flush. This was the same three card hold as my first royal of the trip; the positions were different but, what a sweet site. Just as I was dropping into negative numbers and things were looking bleak it all turned around with one hand. After the hand pay, I played my credits back down to zero without another quad. It was a much needed $1,500 winning session and I was now up $1,400 for the trip.
After a nature break and a trip to the Coffee Bean for some higher quality coffee I switched to the Island bar for another session. Over the years I have gotten to know some of the bartenders at this bar and they are always very personable. I started giving back my winnings at an alarming rate, I hit quad 8s, but that only provided a minor delay in the loss of $500. With $600 invested in the machine, things finally turned around and I started hitting quads at an above average rate. I hit quad 3s a straight flush, (king high again), quad Jacks, ANOTHER king high straight flush, (though this one holding a 9); then quad Aces and I finished with dealt quad 8s. This flourish put my credit total above $800. I played that down to $700 and cashed out a $100 win. I was just relieved to be at least temporarily out of the quad drought that I had been in most of the morning. Today had been a return to the wild swings compared to the day before. I took a break, did a little shopping in the gift shop, relaxed in the room a while and prepared my belongings for the trip home.
The before dinner session was back at the Sports Book Bar, it was another one with a slow start, but a good result in the end. I hit my share of quads, with quad 5s twice, quad Qs twice, quad 7s twice, not in that order and quad aces again. I cashed out a $300 win and was now up to +$1,800 for the trip.
I had dinner at the 24/7 café, winner winner chicken dinner. The food was good, I was pretty hungry in part because I had gotten used to free lunch at MSS and skipped lunch today. I ate at the “bar” where they put the single diners; the service was prompt and friendly.
After diner I started out at the Island Bar machine on the entrance side of the bar. This machine had a sticky draw button, which required an occasional multiple pounding and so after a $100 loss and only quad tens I decided to relocate. It was back to the Sports Book Bar as it was now getting crowded in the casino, I was happy to see it was open. I played a long last session of the day there and hit quad 2s quad 9s, quad 5s, quad 9s and quad 8s. Not nearly enough for the time spent. I shuffled back up to my room down $600 from that sitting, a bit bleary eyed. I was still up $1,100 for the trip and it had been a good day, but the last session tends to dominate your psyche as it is the most recent experience. At diner I had thoughts of getting my win total back above the $2,000 level, where it was early in the trip. I knew that with only a little over an hour of play time the next morning, that goal was not a likely outcome. The glass is half full attitude finally took hold before I fell asleep; it was also a virtual lock that I wasn’t going to go home in the red.
Tuesday-July 26
I slept well the final night, too well. I woke up and it was close to 7:00am. I had awakened without aid of an alarm before 6:00am every day until now. I had decided that in order to have plenty of time to make my flight that I needed to hit the road by 9:00am, so I went into hustle mode to get down to the casino to get in an hour of play. After getting showered and dressed I headed back to the Sports Book Bar for my final play of the trip. This machine had not been kind the night before, but I knew that all the buttons worked well and the service would be good. The Island bar still had some characters finishing up from the previous night of revelry and I knew I would be able to play faster without any drunken distractions.
The final session was the opposite of the night before. I hit quad 8s on my first $100 in, a straight flush saved me from having to invest another hundred, then I hit quad sevens. I had now played about a half hour and decided that if I lost the credits on the machine, I would just walk away with a $1,000 even win for the trip.
I doubt that I’m unique in this respect but, towards the end of a trip my view of money changes. When I’m in gambling mode, money is nothing other than a system for keeping score. I take a bankroll that provides me a risk of ruin under 5%; in this case that was $6,000. My family budget is planned for busting out, so any money that makes the trip home with me puts me in better shape than I have planned for. When I get close to going home, each hundred starts to get psychologically converted back to real life money from gambling mode units. I start thinking about $100 in terms of how many tanks of gas and rounds of golf that it would buy. Anyway, this thinking had me willing to quit with a little time left on the clock, but my luck continued in my final session and I hit quad aces one final time and followed it with quad 4s. I now had $800+ in credits and set my walk away total at $700 on the machine. I hoped for just one more quad, but waked with a $600 win and a happy memory of my last session. A $1,700 win was nice and plenty satisfying, but I knew that with three royals, that I must have fell well short of average in some other areas; I was more interested than usual in doing my post-trip math analysis.
My final totals for the trip:
Hands played: 70,379
Total wagered: $175,947.50
Average win with perfect play: $303.50
Big Hands Breakdown
Royal Flush: 3
Straight Flush: 11
Quad Aces: 16
Quad 2-3-4: 30
Quad 5-K: 111
Given the number of hands I played and the average appearance frequency this is the average number of the high paying hands: (rounded to two decimals)
Royal Flush: 1.46
Straight Flush: 7.96
Quad Aces: 13.99
Quad 2-3-4: 36.88
Quad 5-K: 113.15
The difference between the expected and the realized is multiplied by the hand return to produce a dollar variance amount, positive variances are signified with a + sign, negative with a – sign.
Royal Flush: + $3,070
Straight Flush: + $380
Quad Aces: + $804
Quad 2-3-4: - $1,376
Quad 5-K: - $269
Total Variance of big hands: - $909
When you add up the big hand variance amounts and compare it to my actual results of + $1,700 there is a negative variance of - $909 not accounted for in the big hands. The low hand variance started the trip bad, but started to move back in the right direction late in the trip. The big positives from the three royals and the two “extra” quad aces were offset by a fairly big negative variance in the quad 2-3-4 range. During my March trip, with about the same number of hands played, I hit 41 in the 2-3-4 bucket, which was above average. None of these results is far off average by big picture standards.
Subsequent events comment:
Since returning news has broken that the Palms has removed their bank of FPDW progressives and there are unconfirmed reports that other full pay machines may also be MIA. This is not good news for me as the Palms play and stay has been part of my standard trip itinerary. If the “Caesars Borg” influence has indeed overpowered George Maloof’s management strategy when it comes to machine inventory it will be my last play and stay there. George said during a recent radio show interview that the FPDW bank was safe despite rumors that they might not be around for long. I am hoping that any downgrades miss out on the bar machines I play, but don’t have high hopes. This may be another case of it was good while it lasted, Palms was the last place I could play my game without a reduced comp rate. While the “good old days” for my style are I fear in the past forever, I am hoping that the few remaining opportunities will at least keep me traveling to Las Vegas for a few more years.
Warning: This trip report contains graphic math content; it is not for the numerically squeamish.
Prelude:
I am a random Midwesterner who visits Las Vegas 3-4 times a year. This trip was number 37 in the last 11 years. I now play one game exclusively; 10/7 Double Bonus video poker. I play at the 50 cent level. I play fast and I play a lot. This trip I played more than usual as my wife opted for Boston and I was solo. On most trips she comes with me and I spend fewer hours gambling and more time on the activities that she enjoys.
My last few trips I have kept detailed records of my play, this is part hobby, part tax recordkeeping and part anal obsession resulting from an accounting degree. I will sprinkle in some random comments along with the gambling results to make it seem like I might be a normal person. The records do help me to get an understanding of the results. Knowing how volatility impacts my bankroll keeps me going through the rough stretches and prevents me from getting over confident when winning seems easy.
Basic info on 10/7 double bonus:
It helps in reading this report to know some basics for those unfamiliar with the game. You can skip this if you know the game. It is video poker with a return of 100.17% and a variance of 28.25. The strategy takes some time and practice to master. The big hands are a royal flush which returns 4000 credits or at the 50 cent denomination $2,000, quad aces win $400, quad 2s 3s and 4s win $200, quad 5s through Kings along with straight flushes win $125. The return of over 100% with accurate play gives you a fighting chance to win, but the variance requires a healthy bankroll and ensures that you never forget that it is gambling.
Tuesday – July 19
I flew in on Frontier and arrived an hour late. I picked up rental car and drove to Red Rock. I checked in with no wait and was playing by about 7pm. They have nice Optimum Play machines at Red Rock, there are 26 machines with my game, they are all slant-tops with anti-glare screens. I played 4,224 hands the first night, finishing up around 11pm, which is way too late central time for a mid-fifties guy who is not a night owl. I lost $500 in that first session despite hitting the following quads: 6s 8s Js 7s Qs 9s As 2s Qs 2s in that order. That number of quads is very average for 4,224 hands; the bottom of the paytable contributed most of my loss for the night.
Random observation of the day:
While waiting in the Denver airport for my Las Vegas leg; the gate area was crowded and I found a place to stand along a wall behind a gate podium. There were five cardboard boxes stacked up behind the desk area. They each contained 5,000 ear-bud head phones and the boxes said: Made in China. The company name on these boxes was Global In-flight Products. They listed their website address on the boxes; it was GIPUSA.COM.
Wednesday-July 20
I woke up way too early with my internal alarm still on central time. I spent some time in the room getting organized, stalling until after the 6am opening of the Starbucks. Coffee is an early morning need for me, it is not an option. Coffee in hand I settled in for the pre-breakfast session. It was a lot like the prior evening. Three hours of play, 3,262 hands and another $500 loss. I hit 7 quads and was dealt a straight flush. Six of the quads were 5-K and the other was quad 3s. Seven hours of play, down $1,000, not a very good start, time for breakfast.
I ate at the Feast buffet, quick, cheap (paid with points) and nice crispy bacon. Buffet for breakfast is my normal routine in Las Vegas. I’m not much of a foodie so any comprehensive elaborate descriptions of the selections and salivation inspiring soliloquies of special selections will not be found in this trip report.
The after breakfast session was amazing. I have been playing this game for years and have seen some strange results, but this stood out. I played a long session even for me, it was 5,008 hands. I hit quad Aces three times during the session. That is rare, but what is even stranger was that I only won $100. The other decent hands were 5 quads all 5-K. My memory is shorter than my playing career, but I only recall two other three quad Ace sessions, the other two were big winners. In 10/7 Double Bonus you hit quad Aces every 5,030 hands on average. They often make the difference between a winning or a losing session. Looking at the numbers though, it is surprising that I won at all, because the lack of other quads more than offset the “extra” two quad aces.
After a break and some mid-afternoon iced coffee I played another three hours before diner. I didn’t hit quad aces, but I did hit quad 2s twice and quad 4s along with six 5-K quads and a straight flush. The net result was another loss; I dropped $300 and was now down $1,200 for the trip.
Dinner at Cabo refreshed my energy. The sopapillas for dessert dipped in honey were a big part of that formula. Despite the early poor results I headed back to the machines with a sugar buzz and a positive attitude. I had a feeling this next session would be a good one.
My positive outlook was challenged severely to start the last session of the day. I put $600 in the machine and had only hit quad queens. The bill acceptor was the only part of this machine that seemed to be functioning well. Then things turned around big time. I hit quad aces as my credits were once again dwindling, then not too many hands later; I held _ _ Q K A of diamonds and the Jack and Ten filled in. The hand ended up JTQKA, if they had filled in the other way it would have been a sequential.
Whew, I quickly went from looking at being down $1,800 for the trip to being ahead $200 with $400+ in credits on the machine. When you play fast like I do, you don’t hesitate at all when holding three to a royal flush. When you get dealt four to a royal, you stop and pause and think about what card you need and depending on how bad you need it, you may pray a little; or a lot. But holding three it is just bang, all of a sudden you have a royal. It is more of a shock than a relief or a celebration.
After the hand pay my credits did dwindle a little before I got another shock hand. I hit quad aces holding just one ace. The rest of the session was declining credits interrupted with dealt quad 4s, quad Jacks, Kings and Queens. I was hoping for another rush of luck, but I guess I used it all up. I cashed out with the meter down to $200. The session win was a $1,600 and I was now up $400 for the trip. It was a long day I played a total of 14,842 hands, which is a lot, even for a degenerate like me.
Trip Totals end of day Wednesday-July 20
Hands played: 19,066
Total wagered: $47,664
Hands Breakdown
Royal Flush: 1
Straight Flush: 2
Quad Aces: 6
Quad 2-3-4: 7
Quad 5-K: 28
Given the number of hands I played and the average appearance frequency, this is the average number of the high paying hands: (rounded to two decimals)
Royal Flush: 0.40
Straight Flush: 2.16
Quad Aces: 3.79
Quad 2-3-4: 9.99
Quad 5-K: 30.65
The difference between the expected and the realized is multiplied by the hand return to produce a dollar variance amount, positive variances are signified with a + sign, negative with a – sign.
Royal Flush: + $1,206
Straight Flush: - $20
Quad Aces: + $884
Quad 2-3-4: - $598
Quad 5-K: - $332
Total Variance of big hands: + $1,141
When you add up this variance amount and compare it to my actual results of + $400 you can see that there is a negative variance of - $741 not accounted for in the big hands. This variance is in the number of lesser hands, full houses, flushes, straights, three of a kinds, two pairs, high pairs and the number of non-paying hands. The lesser hands are more likely to balance out over time, but since the frequency of these hands is high even a minor percentage variance can add up to a significant dollar amount.
Random observation of the day:
During a morning session I took a machine at one end of a row of slant tops. There was one other player on the bank of five machines at the other end of the bank. After playing for a while the player at the far end started down the line of machines, playing a little while at each machine and finally parked next to me. I never have understood such activity. Here we are now in a casino on a weekday morning, there is only sparse play and two players are next to each other on an otherwise empty row. During the next session I played at a different bank, this same player comes along and sits at the far end of the row. He again makes his way to the machine next to me. Maybe I have a magnetic personality. Maybe the guy wanted to be my friend. Maybe he was just a superstitious weirdo player and I was a random victim of idiotic interloping
Thursday-July 21
It felt good to wake up the next day, with a fresh start and a lead instead of being behind. The morning started in the usual way, with a stop at Starbucks and parking at a machine. An early dealt straight flush made it seem that this might be another lucky session, but that was not to be. I went through $500 in the next hour plus with only quad 9s interrupting the losing. Knowing the small lead I had was gone already, I decided to quit and go up and pack my bags for my move before breakfast rather than put in another hundred.
After breakfast and getting ready for my next destination, I gave the Red Rock one more shot at my bankroll. I would end up leaving the Red Rock with fond memories of my stay. I hit quad 2s fairly early in the session and built a nice balance with quad tens and dealt quad 7s. Then I got another shocker royal flush. Holding A Q of spades, the T J K filled in. Wow, at this point I was feeling pretty good, two Royal Flushes only hours of play apart. Sweet! I have had two royals this close together four or five other times in my playing career, but the thrill was not diminished by past memories.
After the hand pay I finished the session off with quad 4s 2s and then quad 5s twice. They were spaced out enough so that it took a while, but I cashed out with a $2,500 win including the royal. I did the video checkout; I had booked on a mailed room offer for two free nights. The balance on the TV screen was zero. No hassles, I love it when things go according to plan. I left the keys in the room and trucked my bag to my rental car.
Main Street Station (MSS) was my next stop; I had three comped nights set up for Thursday through Sunday. The slot card system at MSS has a time delay and gives you your points balance only when you first insert your card. It is possible to track your hands played each session, but I didn’t bother. There are limits to my anal record keeping. I know my total hands played there but could not tell you how many hands each session were.
I arrived late morning and left my bags in the car, deciding to play until it was check-in time. My first session at MSS was not too good, I hit six quads; 6s, 5s, 8s, 2s, 7s and 2s again; but that is not enough for the four hours I sat there, and the result was a $400 loss. After checking in to the room and getting organized I played another session before diner. I hit three quads, 9s, 5s and 7s and two Straight Flushes, but broke even. During this session I had random VP oddity that I jotted down. I hit back to back to back full houses. I know that I have hit two in a row a few times, but three in a row is rare.
I had dinner at the Triple 7 Brew Pub. My offer included the Aloha food coupon book and so, being a tightwad, I stick to menu items that are free. I had a mushroom Swiss burger and a root beer, it was good comfort food. The after dinner play started out really bad, I stuck in $600 before hitting a quad. I ended up the night session with five 5-K quads and quad 4s and 2s; again just not enough given the time on the machine and I walked away down another $400.
MSS has an ongoing promotion called “Score with Four”. It awards scratch cards for every quad and for straight flushes and royal flushes. These cards are mostly worth $2 with some $3 sprinkled in, these days any card worth more is pretty rare. I collected 18 for the day; 17 were $2 and one was $3. These do add up and are a nice bonus. I don’t count them in my gambling stats, but they are part of the value of playing at MSS. On 10/7 double bonus you will get a scratch card on average every 407 hands. When playing at 50 cents, this adds about 0.2% to your edge even using $2.00 as the scratch card average. For quarter players it would be double. This addition of the scratch cards is minor, but it even effects one close play in 10/7 double bonus strategy. When dealt AA along with another pair, you dump the second pair. This does add additional variance to the game and on this trip, this strategy tweak did not pay off for me, because I did not catch quad Aces as a result. In fact, with a lot of play at MSS, I can only remember one time when it did hit, but I guess that “paid for” the cost of a lot of misses.
End of the day totals: lost $500 Tuesday; won $900 Wednesday and won $1,200 today. I went to bed up $1,600 for the trip, thankful for the two lucky royals, but thinking it wasn’t a big lead considering the amount of play I had yet in front of me.
Random observation of the day:
On my drive from Red Rock to MSS I decided to just take Charleston all the way to Main Street. I know it is faster to jump on the highway, but I was in no rush and I like to see the sites a little. Along Charleston for that stretch there is a lot of retail space. Small strip malls and store of every sort line the way. I noted at least four individuals along the route holding sign boards attempting to make customers out of the people driving by in their cars. That has to be a pretty low success rate. All four did so in an enthusiastic manner, waving the big signs so much that they were hard to read. This was on a day when it was in the low 100s. With so many people out of work in Las Vegas, I’m sure these people were glad to have the job and at least it is better than being a porn slapper, but that can’t be an easy way to make a buck. Seeing such things prompt me to count my blessings.
Friday-July 22
I got off to a good start Friday morning. A quick walk across the skyway to Lappert's Ice Cream and Coffee at the California for my morning coffee started things off right. I had my choice of the 12 slant top VP machines at MSS, with no other players up early. MSS has these 12 machines and 9 uprights with my game, so there are plenty of spots to choose from. I prefer the slant tops and if I can get on the end of a row I usually choose those so that I can stretch my legs out to the side. I’m a tall guy at 6’4” and staying comfortable for a long session can be a challenge. The slant tops at MSS all have a bit of a glare problem; the lighting along with the smooth glass screens can make it tough to see the cards well. Some machines in the bank are better than others depending on the positions of the overhead lights.
I hit quad queens on my first $100 in the machine and quad jacks followed. Not long after that I hit quad Aces and my credit balance on the machine was looking good. Then I hit quad threes followed by quad aces again. That last hit put the machine credits over the $1,000 mark. Seeing your credits over the 1K on a machine is still a thrill for me. This was the lone time it happened this trip, some past trips I have seen it multiple times. What is even better is to put a machine into “spit ticket mode” The machines at MSS spit out tickets when you have a win that puts the credit total over $1,200. I was hoping to get this machine into that mode, but it was not to be. That was the end of the “hot cycle”. 10/7 Double Bonus is a streaky game. I played the credits down to the $700 mark and cashed out a $600 win without hitting another quad. A win is a win though and it was a fine way to start the day, especially compared to the two previous early morning sessions, which were both $500 losses.
Breakfast at the MSS Garden Court Buffett was the same as it every was. Manuel’s shtick and friendly banter never gets old. Manuel, for those not familiar is “the omelet guy” at MSS and he provides the morning buffet entertainment. “Good morning” “How are you today young man” “Welcome Back” He always tells me welcome back, I have no idea whether he really recognizes me from past trips or whether he just says that to most customers. He can easily juggle half a dozen omelets on his stove while chatting it up with those in line. “You want jalapenos?” “You have to be 21 to have jalapenos” “you want chicken eggs?” Maybe I’m just easily amused, but he always puts a smile on my face.
After breakfast I touch base with a friend from the Las Vegas Advisor forum. He and his wife are at the Palms and he is in town working on the camera crew for ShowTime Sports. They are filming the MMA Strikeforce fight card in the Pearl Theater at the Palms later tonight. We agree to meet up at the Palms for lunch to catch up. We had met up on a couple of previous trips and he is quite the character.
Prior to my lunch excursion I played another session, it was back to the other end of the bell curve from the pre-breakfast session. I hit quad Js, Ts, 7s, Ks and 4s. Where were those Red Rock sessions with 10 quads? I lost back $500, I just couldn’t seem to put together back to back winning sessions. Oh, well at least I was still up $100 on the day.
A quick run down I-15 in the rental car had me to the Palms within minutes and I met up with my friend. We will call him Tom, because his name is Tom. He had another friend and Las Vegas Advisor member named Scott. Tom’s wife was at the pool, so I didn’t get to see her. We had a light lunch at Blue Agave and talked all things Las Vegas. After lunch Tom took us on a tour of the StrikeForce cage set-up in the Pearl Theater. Tom gave me a nice ball cap and T-Shirt with ShowTime Sports logos as a memento. I’m not really into MMA, my spectator sport of choice is football, but Tom seemed to know a lot about the sport and I was happy to see that he was enjoying his work. Thanks to Tommywishbone for a nice break during my marathon gambling week.
I drove back to MSS through stop and go traffic on I-15 after this nice break from gambling and played three more sessions before calling it a night. The first of the three was a $400 loser with quad Ks, quad Js dealt, quad Tens dealt, quad Js and quad Qs. If face cards quads were bonus hands it would have been a good session.
The next session was a real groaner. I got dealt quad aces early in the session, but no quads at all after that. I played away the $400 in credits from the dealt aces and followed up with a double Benjamin chaser for a $300 loss.
The last session of the day after the MSS Seafood Buffet was finally a winner, but only $200. I hit quad 5s, 2s, 3s, 3s again, 6s and 4s. Fortunately all but two of the six quads were of the 2-3-4 $200 variety and this made the session a winner. The total for the day was a $400 loss, which is not bad, but after the first session’s $600 win it seemed a little worse than that. Kay Sarah Sarah. (Yes, I know that is incorrect nomenclature) (No, I’m not sure that nomenclature is the proper term for such a faux pas)
I went to bed early for a Friday night in Las Vegas still up $1,200 for the trip. The casino was hopping; there was a very good crowd. I cashed in 22 scratch cards for the day; there was a lone $3 one in the group, so I added another $45 to my wallet.
Random observation of the day:
The line for the MSS Seafood buffet was long; it took just over an hour to move through. I had too much time to think while in line. As I mentioned I’m 6’4”, which is tall, but hopefully, not freakishly so. In the MSS buffet line however, with a large percentage of Hawaiian clientele, I felt a bit out of place. I was taller than anyone else in line and a full head taller than the vast majority. Humans really do come in all shapes and sizes. What if the 1.3 billion people in China were all above average in size instead of below average? Assuming that it takes more calories to maintain a large body, how much more food would it take to keep all those people fed? The world is probably lucky that China is not filled with the big wide beef eaters that are common in the Midwest of the USA. Sorry, as I said, I was in line too long.
Saturday-July 23
I started Saturday morning with two good things, a cup of coffee and quad aces. Eventually though, my coffee was gone along with the credits. I hit quad Js, 7s, 2s and Qs to follow, but they were space out too far and only interrupted the gradual decline in credits. I broke even for the session. The after breakfast session was similar in result and in inverse order. I lost a few hundred before hitting quad 9s, Qs, 5s and Js to slow the losing, but finished with quad aces to get back to square one. In both sessions I got dealt four to a royal several times. I had a few four to a royal chances smattered in with in other sessions this trip, but in these two sessions I think I had seven chances needing just that one elusive card. An ace of spades teased me instead of the ace of clubs, but when it comes to these hands, a miss is a miss.
I took a break at lunch time, using one of my Aloha coupons for some wings at the Triple Seven. It seemed the trip to this point was either plunging down or spiking up, breaking even for the first half of the day seemed strange.
I would have gladly broken even for the rest of the day if I knew what the next session would be like. I went through $700+ without a single quad. It didn’t even take that long to lose that much. It didn’t get much better after that. I did hit quad 7s twice then quad Qs, Ks, and Js, but when I ended my play for dinner time I had lost $1,200 for the session and was back to even for the trip. Even for a guy used to the game and its wicked variance it is tough suffering through such a session. I quit the session early partly in disgust and took a walk down to Fremont Street before dinner. I wanted to scope out any new things and to do some souvenir shopping. It was a little toasty outside, so it turned out to be a fairly short trip.
Dinner at the Triple 7 was another burger, this time the BBQ bacon cheeseburger. As I said earlier, I’m not a foodie, but I do think I know burgers. IMHO Triple 7 does a pretty good job on pub fare. Maybe it is just that food always tastes better when it is free.
Saturday Night. Las Vegas. Even for the trip. Which way are we going from here, up or down? Neither. Just like the two morning sessions I broke even for the night session. I hit quad Qs twice and fortunately hit 2s twice and 3s. The session lasted pretty late, so the bottom of the paytable must have provided a lot of support. Sometimes in 10/7 Double Bonus you can play for a half hour and vacillate your credit balance in the same $50 range. It goes low and a couple flushes or a full house bump you back, then you rinse and repeat. Other times you can go through a hundred in ten minutes. The mellow sessions with very little roller coaster action are a lot easier on the psyche.
By the end of my play Saturday night MSS was pretty packed. Most of the machines in the place were occupied and there was a cacophony from the craps pit. While there is a good vibe that goes with playing in a packed house, I prefer a quiet morning with the only voice being the occasional call of the wild cocktail. With high hopes that tomorrow would be a better day, I called it quits earlier than most of my fellow gamblers. I had only 20 scratch cards for the day, which may sound like a lot, but in a typical full day of play at MSS 30 is closer to an average number. Just to add a little salt to the day’s wounds they were all $2, not a $3 one in the bunch.
Random observation of the day:
On my walk to Fremont Street I took the indoor route. I went across the sky-bridge to the Cal and through Vegas Club. What a contrast. Vegas Club used to be on a par with MSS and the Cal, they had some good games and good crowds. I stayed there a couple of trips several years ago when I was playing a lot of quarter FP KBJW. They had a good slot club, some decent food choices and some nice employees. I can still picture some of the cocktail waitress in their cheerleader outfits and tennis shoes spritely moving about the floor, with their cheery smiles and their … Um, I better stop there. Anyway my point is boy has this place ever been run into the ground. MSS and Cal are still going strong, but ever since Jackie Gaughan sold the Las Vegas Club it has been going downhill. Walking through there this past Saturday, the place was dead. The back area has seen several different schemes, but nothing they try back there attracts players. The central mall/dining area looks nice enough, but was empty. The main casino only had a few players, especially compared to the Cal and MSS. They had signs plastered everywhere announcing 40% looser machines, but as far as I know the VP inventory has not improved. 40% looser than way too tight is still too tight. Back when I was staying there they had a lot of full pay VP at the quarter level and good steady repeat customers. It sure is a lot easier to drive away players than it is to attract them. (In the edit process I see that the grumpy old man in me came out in this rant. Hrumph, it’s not like it was in the good old days. Hrumph. #@$$# where’s my bunion pills.)
Sunday-July 24
When you first wake up the day after a big loss or big win, in the early seconds of foggy groggy brain, you run through in your head, did I really win/lose that much? If it was a big loss, realization that it was not a dream comes on like a hangover, if the prior day was a big win; you get another shot of thrill to start the day. This morning fell into the first bucket. I woke up saying to myself; “Damn, do I really have to start over from scratch?” But, but, but I have had two royals and quad aces 11 times, can I really be back to even? Like a cold slap on the face, reality has a way of defying all preconceptions. I decided to look at the glass as half full, I could easily be at this point of the trip with a devastated bankroll and the gripping fear of busting out for the trip. I’ve been there and done that, it isn’t pretty. Instead I have two days yet to play and a fully stocked bankroll.
Bring it on, coffee and video poker. I started out with a quick hour long session. I hit 5 quads in the hour, well above pace, but they were all in the 5-K range. I cashed out a $100 win. I had an early breakfast and then walked to St. Joan of Arc for Sunday service. Hey, I may not get to Heaven, but at least if I don’t, it won’t be because I skipped church to gamble. The next session was a longer one; I hit quad 4s to get off to a good start and hit Ks, 7s and 4s again, but just could not get the credit balance up very high. Near the near the end of the session I held one ace and ended up with AQQQQ. I seem to catch one of those a trip, if I can catch four perfect cards holding one, why not a royal? I cashed out another $100 win and took a break to pack up my belongings for a move to the Palms.
I checked out and took my bags to the car and then came back into MSS to play some more. My past experience at the Palms has been that they often do not have rooms available before check-in time, so I decided to play at MSS until around 4pm before changing venues. I played another couple hours before taking a lunch break, I hit quad Aces again holding just one ace and also hit quad 8s, Qs and 2s. My win for the session was $100. It was like baby steps. $100….$100….$100….. at least it was going in the right direction.
I went to lunch up $300 for the trip. I ordered the Nachos Grande at the Triple 7 with the last of my Aloha coupons; it was way too much food for me. I’m not a big eater and I really didn’t make much of a dent in this platter full of gastrointestinal goodies.
After lunch I played my last session of the trip at MSS. It was a wash; I got 8 more scratch cards, hitting quad 9s three times, two straight flushes, 7s and Tens. No bonus quads hurt the effort, but I was happy to walk out of Main Street Station still up $300 for the trip. I cashed out my Score With Four cards for the day, I had 21 of them and 4 were $3 cards. That was one more card than “Black Saturday” in fewer hours of play. I also got my cash back and recorded my final point balance. The cash back was $66.00 and I learned that during my stay I bumped up to the emerald tier from sapphire. It took some big city ciphering to figure my hands played from the points, because at the emerald level you earn 3x point and at sapphire you earn at 2x points. The machines I play on are $3 to earn a point. Fortunately from my current tier level points I could calculate how many points were earned at each level, figure my total coin in and come up with the hands played. The total at MSS was 34,537 hands.
This break point provides a good place to insert my big hand variance stats:
Including my play at both MSS and Red Rock, trip total to date:
Hands played: 56,179
Total wagered: $140,447.50
Big Hands Breakdown
Royal Flush: 2
Straight Flush: 9
Quad Aces: 12
Quad 2-3-4: 27
Quad 5-K: 87
Given the number of hands I played and the average appearance frequency this is the average number of the high paying hands: (rounded to two decimals)
Royal Flush: 1.17
Straight Flush: 6.35
Quad Aces: 11.17
Quad 2-3-4: 29.44
Quad 5-K: 90.32
The difference between the expected and the realized is multiplied by the hand return to produce a dollar variance amount, positive variances are signified with a + sign, negative with a – sign.
Royal Flush: + $1,662
Straight Flush: + $331
Quad Aces: + $333
Quad 2-3-4: - $488
Quad 5-K: - $415
Total Variance of big hands: - $1,122
When you add up this variance amount and compare it to my actual results of + $300 there is a negative variance of - $1,122 not accounted for in the big hands. This variance is in the number of lesser hands, full houses, flushes, straights, three of a kinds, two pairs, high pairs and the number of non-paying hands. The bulk of the low hand variance $995 happened at Red Rock and the balance of $167 was at Main Street Station.
A common myth about VP in general is that whether you win or lose is tied directly to whether or not you get “your share” of royal flushes. They do have a big impact, but in this real life example you can see that even the low hands have a significant impact on results. Of the 56,179 hands I played the average number of non-paying hands would be 31,861. The very bottom of the paytable is subject to the same random variance as the rest of the paytable. Say you deviate by 1% from that average, that difference is 319 hands. Making that many hands into paying hands playing at $2.50 a hand is $797.50 even if they only return even money. This illustrates my statement after my first math summary: The lower hands are more likely to balance out over more hands played, but since the frequency of these hands is high, even a minor percentage variance can add up to a significant dollar amount.
Here is another little math exercise for those VP players who wonder why some of us are so particular about what paytables they will play. In the 56,179 hands I played to this point, the average number of full houses is 629 and the average number of flushes is 840. On a 9/6 Double Bonus machine that would be a difference of $1,572.50 and $2,100, next time you pick a machine, think about how lucky you have to be to overcome that level of a disadvantage. I will add the disclaimer that the frequency of both full houses and flushes is slightly different with optimal strategy on each of the respective paytables.
I’m off to the Palms for the last leg of my trip………
I made the quick trip down to the Palms from MSS in record time as the Sunday traffic was very light. Palms check-in went fine; they put me in the Fantasy tower; the room was in good order. It is quite a contrast going from Red Rock to MSS and then to Palms. MSS is fine for my needs, but the room quality at Red Rock and Palms is almost excessive for someone who spends as little time in the room as I do. I must mention that in my room at MSS, they had done an upgrade to the shower/tub. In the past the shower head was so low that it took some effort to stoop low enough to wash my hair. The room I stayed in had an upgraded water control handle and a higher shower head.
Back to gambling, after check in, I headed down to the casino to start my play. There are only four machines at the Palms that have my game (10/7 Double Bonus) at the 50 cent level. They are all at the bars, two are found at the Island Bar one each at the far East ends; one is at the Lounge bar, the machine closest to the Lounge entrance and one is at the East end of the Sports Book Bar on the North side of the bar. In the evenings it can be difficult to get a seat at these machines as the bars become packed with mostly young partiers lubricating their erotogenic engines. On my first venture to the casino, the Island bar machines were occupied as was the Lounge Bar machine, fortunately the Sports Book Bar machine was open and that bar was not crowded at all. I got started with a session not unlike my morning ones; I won $100 with quad Qs, 8s, Tens and Kings.
The after dinner sitting started out very well, I hit quad Aces again and had an almost moment holding three high suited cards ending up with a king high straight flush as the suited 9 filled in instead of the suited ace. A long drought followed and my $500+ in credits that I had built up were gone after a couple of hours. I only hit quad 7s and quad Qs the rest of the night and called it a night with a $100 loss for the evening. It was at least a $300 win for the day without any huge swings, days like that are not the norm with this roller coaster game.
Random observation of the day:
Dinner Sunday night was carryout from the McDonalds in the food court at the Palms. I wanted to make some phone calls to back home to my wife and one of my adult kids and do that while eating in my room. I ordered some chow and an iced coffee; randomly the total came to $7.00 even. I handed the McCrewmember a ten and he gave me back 2 singles. I paused, re-checked the register total and said “I think you shorted me a buck” holding out the 2 singles as my evidence. He didn’t blink or hesitate much and he handed me a dollar bill that he had in front of him on the counter without opening the till. Hmmmm. Really? You were going to short me a buck in change and stuff it in your pocket? While I can’t prove that was what was going on, the fact that he didn’t open the till to get the dollar is more than suspicious. It made me wonder if he was short changing customers on a regular basis, what his success rate was. How much could one generate on a shift using this scheme? What were the odds that he would get caught and fired over a measly buck? So many math questions, so little time.
Monday-July 25
The last full day was here, I’m up $300 for the trip and ready for a long hard day of play to finish off the trip. I started out with a session at the Lounge Bar machine; it is on a lower level than all but one other machine at the bar. It is a little more ergonomically comfortable than the other bar machines, but my comfort level did not translate into better results as I went through $400 without a single quad. I did tread water for a while and played a couple hours, but couldn’t hit anything big. I had my early morning coffee from the bar, I don’t recommend bar coffee in general, Palms isn’t bad, but I’ve become a bit of a coffee snob.
I had breakfast at the buffet. The cashier there told me that my slot card needed an upgrade, but she called the slot booth and verified whatever and I was able to pay with my points. I stopped at the slot club after breakfast to get a new one. Upon check-in I had been instructed to stop by the slot club and have them put the $40 in free play that was part of my offer on my card anyway, so I had two reasons to do so. The booth person seemed helpful enough, but told me his computer said that the $40 was to be promotional chips not free play and said I would need to go to the cage to get them. I didn’t protest, but it turns out that I should have. My mailed offer states: “$40 in Free Slot Play or Promotional Gaming Chips”. Harrumph, I should have taken the mailing to the booth, but it was up in my room. I never followed up by checking it and I didn’t get any promotional chips from the cage. In retrospect, two bad moves, I need assertiveness training.
The after breakfast session started with another $400 burned through without a quad. That was $800 in a row including the early morning session. Yikes, now I’m looking just to get back to even for the trip with some luck. Quad 8s on my fifth Benjamin provided a spark and then holding AKQ of diamonds I got lucky with another royal flush. This was the same three card hold as my first royal of the trip; the positions were different but, what a sweet site. Just as I was dropping into negative numbers and things were looking bleak it all turned around with one hand. After the hand pay, I played my credits back down to zero without another quad. It was a much needed $1,500 winning session and I was now up $1,400 for the trip.
After a nature break and a trip to the Coffee Bean for some higher quality coffee I switched to the Island bar for another session. Over the years I have gotten to know some of the bartenders at this bar and they are always very personable. I started giving back my winnings at an alarming rate, I hit quad 8s, but that only provided a minor delay in the loss of $500. With $600 invested in the machine, things finally turned around and I started hitting quads at an above average rate. I hit quad 3s a straight flush, (king high again), quad Jacks, ANOTHER king high straight flush, (though this one holding a 9); then quad Aces and I finished with dealt quad 8s. This flourish put my credit total above $800. I played that down to $700 and cashed out a $100 win. I was just relieved to be at least temporarily out of the quad drought that I had been in most of the morning. Today had been a return to the wild swings compared to the day before. I took a break, did a little shopping in the gift shop, relaxed in the room a while and prepared my belongings for the trip home.
The before dinner session was back at the Sports Book Bar, it was another one with a slow start, but a good result in the end. I hit my share of quads, with quad 5s twice, quad Qs twice, quad 7s twice, not in that order and quad aces again. I cashed out a $300 win and was now up to +$1,800 for the trip.
I had dinner at the 24/7 café, winner winner chicken dinner. The food was good, I was pretty hungry in part because I had gotten used to free lunch at MSS and skipped lunch today. I ate at the “bar” where they put the single diners; the service was prompt and friendly.
After diner I started out at the Island Bar machine on the entrance side of the bar. This machine had a sticky draw button, which required an occasional multiple pounding and so after a $100 loss and only quad tens I decided to relocate. It was back to the Sports Book Bar as it was now getting crowded in the casino, I was happy to see it was open. I played a long last session of the day there and hit quad 2s quad 9s, quad 5s, quad 9s and quad 8s. Not nearly enough for the time spent. I shuffled back up to my room down $600 from that sitting, a bit bleary eyed. I was still up $1,100 for the trip and it had been a good day, but the last session tends to dominate your psyche as it is the most recent experience. At diner I had thoughts of getting my win total back above the $2,000 level, where it was early in the trip. I knew that with only a little over an hour of play time the next morning, that goal was not a likely outcome. The glass is half full attitude finally took hold before I fell asleep; it was also a virtual lock that I wasn’t going to go home in the red.
Tuesday-July 26
I slept well the final night, too well. I woke up and it was close to 7:00am. I had awakened without aid of an alarm before 6:00am every day until now. I had decided that in order to have plenty of time to make my flight that I needed to hit the road by 9:00am, so I went into hustle mode to get down to the casino to get in an hour of play. After getting showered and dressed I headed back to the Sports Book Bar for my final play of the trip. This machine had not been kind the night before, but I knew that all the buttons worked well and the service would be good. The Island bar still had some characters finishing up from the previous night of revelry and I knew I would be able to play faster without any drunken distractions.
The final session was the opposite of the night before. I hit quad 8s on my first $100 in, a straight flush saved me from having to invest another hundred, then I hit quad sevens. I had now played about a half hour and decided that if I lost the credits on the machine, I would just walk away with a $1,000 even win for the trip.
I doubt that I’m unique in this respect but, towards the end of a trip my view of money changes. When I’m in gambling mode, money is nothing other than a system for keeping score. I take a bankroll that provides me a risk of ruin under 5%; in this case that was $6,000. My family budget is planned for busting out, so any money that makes the trip home with me puts me in better shape than I have planned for. When I get close to going home, each hundred starts to get psychologically converted back to real life money from gambling mode units. I start thinking about $100 in terms of how many tanks of gas and rounds of golf that it would buy. Anyway, this thinking had me willing to quit with a little time left on the clock, but my luck continued in my final session and I hit quad aces one final time and followed it with quad 4s. I now had $800+ in credits and set my walk away total at $700 on the machine. I hoped for just one more quad, but waked with a $600 win and a happy memory of my last session. A $1,700 win was nice and plenty satisfying, but I knew that with three royals, that I must have fell well short of average in some other areas; I was more interested than usual in doing my post-trip math analysis.
My final totals for the trip:
Hands played: 70,379
Total wagered: $175,947.50
Average win with perfect play: $303.50
Big Hands Breakdown
Royal Flush: 3
Straight Flush: 11
Quad Aces: 16
Quad 2-3-4: 30
Quad 5-K: 111
Given the number of hands I played and the average appearance frequency this is the average number of the high paying hands: (rounded to two decimals)
Royal Flush: 1.46
Straight Flush: 7.96
Quad Aces: 13.99
Quad 2-3-4: 36.88
Quad 5-K: 113.15
The difference between the expected and the realized is multiplied by the hand return to produce a dollar variance amount, positive variances are signified with a + sign, negative with a – sign.
Royal Flush: + $3,070
Straight Flush: + $380
Quad Aces: + $804
Quad 2-3-4: - $1,376
Quad 5-K: - $269
Total Variance of big hands: - $909
When you add up the big hand variance amounts and compare it to my actual results of + $1,700 there is a negative variance of - $909 not accounted for in the big hands. The low hand variance started the trip bad, but started to move back in the right direction late in the trip. The big positives from the three royals and the two “extra” quad aces were offset by a fairly big negative variance in the quad 2-3-4 range. During my March trip, with about the same number of hands played, I hit 41 in the 2-3-4 bucket, which was above average. None of these results is far off average by big picture standards.
Subsequent events comment:
Since returning news has broken that the Palms has removed their bank of FPDW progressives and there are unconfirmed reports that other full pay machines may also be MIA. This is not good news for me as the Palms play and stay has been part of my standard trip itinerary. If the “Caesars Borg” influence has indeed overpowered George Maloof’s management strategy when it comes to machine inventory it will be my last play and stay there. George said during a recent radio show interview that the FPDW bank was safe despite rumors that they might not be around for long. I am hoping that any downgrades miss out on the bar machines I play, but don’t have high hopes. This may be another case of it was good while it lasted, Palms was the last place I could play my game without a reduced comp rate. While the “good old days” for my style are I fear in the past forever, I am hoping that the few remaining opportunities will at least keep me traveling to Las Vegas for a few more years.
