Vegas Free-for-All - Longest Streak Without A Royal Flush?

Longest Streak Without A Royal Flush?

alexlifeson

Jan 2, 2011
2:35pm

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes
I estimated my longest streak at around 200K hands. That was 13 years ago and I did not keep good records so it's pretty much an educated guess. I have gone 225K hands without a RF at SouthPoint (BobOrme must have got mine). However, I have gotten pretty close the right number of RFs over the years.

As for Mike's "conclusive evidence to the novice that one CAN NOT make a living off VP in 2011", what a bunch of nonsense. Even with my bad streaks I have made a profit for the last 9 years and 12 of 13 since I started playing proper strategies. You don't have to buy anything from folks that provide VP products but that doesn't make the products scams or the people "crooks".

There will always be some people that don't play as well as they think they do and need to blame others for their own problems.

Agreed. No conclusions can be made from such a small sample size.

arcimedes

Jan 2, 2011
8:49pm

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Quote

Originally posted by: FedOMalley

Quote
Originally posted by: BAGIANT
The only way I can see anyone making a living from VP, is for that person to hit and run, and even then I doubt that they could really make a living doing it.

I think it depends on how you define "making a living". There are plenty of people here who are making $40-50K/yr. with the majority of it tax free and not paying for food. I'm not suggesting that this is living high on the hog but at the same time, there's 15% unemployment in the conventional job sector so given the alternative, it isn't bad.

There are at least six days a week where a person with tenacity and skill can make $25/hr. playing vp here in Vegas. It's not a lifestyle fit for everyone but I can assure you that it exists and is reality for a fair number of people. I find it funny when people say "no one can make a living playing vp". Perhaps it's their perception but that doesn't mean it's reality.

Dan

Maybe we should go tell those people that it can't be done. Obviously, the money they are winning is fake money because some posters on LVA said it can't be done.

BTW, I know some people making even more than that, but they are few and far between.

I think if one stated no one will get rich playing VP they'd be right, but making a decent living is possible.

melbedewy

Jan 3, 2011
3:55am

Block User

Quote

"A profit" is very different from "making a living". I have made a profit over a lifetime by playing mostly FPDW and 10/7 DB. You could "make a living" at VP until a few years ago. No longer, at least in Nevada. I can't speak to obscure jurisdictions like Montana, etc. where casino managers may still be wielding duller edges.

melbedewy

Jan 3, 2011
4:02am

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Quote

Originally posted by: FedOMalley

Quote
Originally posted by: BAGIANT
The only way I can see anyone making a living from VP, is for that person to hit and run, and even then I doubt that they could really make a living doing it.

There is no machine out there that can guarantee anyone $25 an hour or even a penny an hour. Try going 300,000 hands with no royal and fewer than expected "bonus" hands and see how much "profit" you will make.
One of my friends dropped almost $100,000 on the dollar FPDW (a game so "good" it doesn't even exist anymore) at the Frontier. Now these self-declared "pro's" are making a living on Bonus Poker with welfare checks?
They must be the same people who bought into "if you give me my trillion dollar stimulus I will keep unemployment under 8%".

arcimedes

Jan 3, 2011
5:34am

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Anyone who loses $100K playing dollar FPDW is either the unluckiest player in the world or is not a very good player. I'd bet on the latter.

Anyone who only plays 300K hands is not serious about winning. Look at Dan's RF for the year. Assuming he's about average his almost 50 RFs means he's playing close to 2 million hands. That's how you reduce the variance of the game and start getting close to mathematical expectations.

This is what I would expect from pros. Now assume the game is quarters and you have $2.5 million dollars. With a 1% edge that is $25K a year. Up the denom a little and you have the $40-50K mentioned. Up the denom a little more ...

melbedewy

Jan 3, 2011
9:10am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes
Anyone who loses $100K playing dollar FPDW is either the unluckiest player in the world or is not a very good player. I'd bet on the latter.

Anyone who only plays 300K hands is not serious about winning. Look at Dan's RF for the year. Assuming he's about average his almost 50 RFs means he's playing close to 2 million hands. That's how you reduce the variance of the game and start getting close to mathematical expectations.

This is what I would expect from pros. Now assume the game is quarters and you have $2.5 million dollars. With a 1% edge that is $25K a year. Up the denom a little and you have the $40-50K mentioned. Up the denom a little more ...

2 MILLION hands of VP a year, every year?
I think a high dive off the Stratosphere is more appealing.

arcimedes

Jan 3, 2011
9:41am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: melbedewy

Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
Anyone who loses $100K playing dollar FPDW is either the unluckiest player in the world or is not a very good player. I'd bet on the latter.

Anyone who only plays 300K hands is not serious about winning. Look at Dan's RF for the year. Assuming he's about average his almost 50 RFs means he's playing close to 2 million hands. That's how you reduce the variance of the game and start getting close to mathematical expectations.

This is what I would expect from pros. Now assume the game is quarters and you have $2.5 million dollars. With a 1% edge that is $25K a year. Up the denom a little and you have the $40-50K mentioned. Up the denom a little more ...

2 MILLION hands of VP a year, every year?
I think a high dive off the Stratosphere is more appealing.

Ever heard of multi-play machines? That's only 200K hands of 10-play.

RiverRat

Jan 3, 2011
2:37pm

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I haven't hit a royal flush since the previous decade.

MoneyLA

Jan 3, 2011
3:42pm

Block User

I do not deny that some people can make a "living" playing video poker. I just have to ask HOW much income do you consider a living? And does that income also pay for vacation time off, insurance, pension, sick time? These are the true measures of "making a living."

Honestly, if you told me you simply break even at VP I would call you a hero.

As far as royals go -- your optimum play on optimum pay table machines has nothing to do with how many royals you get. In fact, playing optimum hands could actually restrict your number of royals.

Getting royals is a matter of luck. Winning is more skill.

My wife is a case in point. She plays Bonus only and while the proper strategy says to hold multiple high cards such as As Kd she will only hold the ace going for the royal. One night on a SINGLE LINE $1 machine she hit FOUR ROYALS playing this way. Absolute amazing luck.

I'll say it again, if your goal is to hit royals, then play for the royals and don't play to win.

melbedewy

Jan 4, 2011
1:08am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes

Quote
Originally posted by: melbedewy
Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
Anyone who loses $100K playing dollar FPDW is either the unluckiest player in the world or is not a very good player. I'd bet on the latter.

Anyone who only plays 300K hands is not serious about winning. Look at Dan's RF for the year. Assuming he's about average his almost 50 RFs means he's playing close to 2 million hands. That's how you reduce the variance of the game and start getting close to mathematical expectations.

This is what I would expect from pros. Now assume the game is quarters and you have $2.5 million dollars. With a 1% edge that is $25K a year. Up the denom a little and you have the $40-50K mentioned. Up the denom a little more ...

2 MILLION hands of VP a year, every year?
I think a high dive off the Stratosphere is more appealing.

Ever heard of multi-play machines? That's only 200K hands of 10-play.

Yeah but there aren't any positive 10-play machines so that is a moot point. Unless there's a casino error in some backwater like Montana or Idaho that hasn't yet been discovered.
Promotions may turn a game positive for a day or a week or a month but they will dissolve like ice in the desert. Just ask the suckers (ooops, I mean pro's) who were banging away on the 100-play NSUD at Southpoint convinced they had an "edge" with their welfare checks...until the welfare checks got yanked out of their hands and left them with big losses and a coupon for a free buffet...

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