Longest Streak Without A Royal Flush?

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Originally posted by: melbedewy
Yeah but there aren't any positive 10-play machines so that is a moot point. Unless there's a casino error in some backwater like Montana or Idaho that hasn't yet been discovered.
Promotions may turn a game positive for a day or a week or a month but they will dissolve like ice in the desert. Just ask the suckers (ooops, I mean pro's) who were banging away on the 100-play NSUD at Southpoint convinced they had an "edge" with their welfare checks...until the welfare checks got yanked out of their hands and left them with big losses and a coupon for a free buffet...


SouthPoint was always positive without welfare checks when I played there, so your statement makes no sense. I suppose I should get used to that.

But, I'll let you do the math. 5-play SDB at 99.7% + .3 CB on 2x and 3x days is what?

There were positive 10 play opportunities when I was there. They come and go. But, there is also other multi-play. Even 3-play cuts the number of hands down to around 700K. That is not a lot for a full time gambler.
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Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote

Originally posted by: melbedewy
Yeah but there aren't any positive 10-play machines so that is a moot point. Unless there's a casino error in some backwater like Montana or Idaho that hasn't yet been discovered.
Promotions may turn a game positive for a day or a week or a month but they will dissolve like ice in the desert. Just ask the suckers (ooops, I mean pro's) who were banging away on the 100-play NSUD at Southpoint convinced they had an "edge" with their welfare checks...until the welfare checks got yanked out of their hands and left them with big losses and a coupon for a free buffet...




There were positive 10 play opportunities when I was there.


The past tense "were" being the operative word.
Casino managers in Nevada have gotten much sharper over the last decade. Other jurisdictions, run by less bright bulbs, may still have such loopholes but in Nevada the days of making of making at living from VP are definitely in the "were" category. Unless you have a fake name and sell trinkets to suckers telling them that they can still do it....


Quote

Originally posted by: melbedewy
Quote

Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote

Originally posted by: melbedewy
Yeah but there aren't any positive 10-play machines so that is a moot point. Unless there's a casino error in some backwater like Montana or Idaho that hasn't yet been discovered.
Promotions may turn a game positive for a day or a week or a month but they will dissolve like ice in the desert. Just ask the suckers (ooops, I mean pro's) who were banging away on the 100-play NSUD at Southpoint convinced they had an "edge" with their welfare checks...until the welfare checks got yanked out of their hands and left them with big losses and a coupon for a free buffet...




There were positive 10 play opportunities when I was there.


The past tense "were" being the operative word.
Casino managers in Nevada have gotten much sharper over the last decade. Other jurisdictions, run by less bright bulbs, may still have such loopholes but in Nevada the days of making of making at living from VP are definitely in the "were" category. Unless you have a fake name and sell trinkets to suckers telling them that they can still do it....





I guess it would piss you off if I told you that I bought Dancer's VPW software for entertainment and practice. I like the realistic graphics.

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Originally posted by: melbedewy
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...Try going 300,000 hands with no royal and fewer than expected "bonus" hands and see how much "profit" you will make....
One of my friends dropped almost $100,000 on the dollar FPDW (a game so "good" it doesn't even exist anymore) at the Frontier.


If you take a game like Jacks where the RF cycle is just over 40K hands, the likelihood that you will go 300K hands without a RF is .06%. Suffice to say that this isn't a likely outcome and could only be attributable to poor play skills.

Your friend either lacked skill or is BS'ing you on the loss. With a bankroll of half of that, your chance of going bust is less than .2% and I'm not even taking into consideration cash back which from memory Frontier offered. To be clear, it's virtually impossible to lose $100K on a $1 single line FPDW game unless you're incompetent.

I have a friend who is currently playing a game in LV with a theo return of $375/hr. In fact, he's actually ahead of the theo curve. I realize he could be the other way as well but he's getting so much daily free play that he virtually cannot lose overall. Sure, he's the first to say that he can lose $7K in a day but he has the skills and bankroll to play this correctly and there's little doubt that he will succeed over the life of the promo.

Even Dancer will concede that one needs to look at the total package to include cash back, bounce back, promo's, tournaments, drawings, etc. to get to a positive bottom line. They are not mutually exclusive...the vp play gets the checks, invites, etc. and that's where you make your money.

In the case of South Point where the masses were bemoaning the end of the welfare checks, I know three people who's offers went up to $75/wk. instead of the previously A mailer high of $50/wk. In addition, it included a meal for two at Michael's which we happened to breach the magical $700 mark. I don't count food or hotels in my figures to determine if this is a financially successful endeavor but I do nonetheless consider it a nice perk.

Money, I already stated that it might not be a "living" by everyone's definition but there are quite a few people that I know personally who are making $40-50K/yr. In many cases, couples play together but on separate accounts and both achieve these results. Contrary to what melbedewy believes, the casino marketing departments aren't all as sharp as many people give them credit for. Think about how many promo's come out only to be cancelled after a few days while sharpies take advantage of the casino's stupidity.

I have one Vegas casino that's giving me $2,400/mth. in free play on less than a quarter million coin in on a jacks game with cash back. I can assure you that I'm making money on that promo. The same casino has a full pay machine on a bank of three that's paying 5X points every day. You don't read about these things on LVA or vpfree....it requires people who have interest, brains and tenacity to get off their ass and find them.

VP isn't my full time gig as I would agree that my personal definition of making a living couldn't be met by what I earn doing this. However, I have lots of friends who are relatively young and retired who are supplementing their income in a very nice way by playing. For them, it's something they like to do and they consider it a hobby that pays. In addition, any player with any steam at all would never HAVE TO pay for a meal in Vegas. This is a real savings given that one needs to eat.

I never contended that hitting a high number of RF's equalled making a living at VP. It was melbedewy who twisted that statement and said that this thread supported his believe that due to a lack of RF's by some posters it proved it was impossible to make a living playing vp.

Games, plays and promo's come and go. A pro or intelligent recreational player doesn't stay married to a particular casino. If the combined return doesn't support a positive theo outcome, they simply move on and find the next play. I don't care what people believe....I know it for fact and from doing this on a part time basis....there are more good plays out there than I have time to get to in a given month.

I'm not trying to convince anyone as what Arci has said before on a few occassions is true....if everyone was a sharp, there would be no good games. I'm happy to have people misplay hands, go with their "gut feel", follow Singer and his like.....this allows whatever good games that are out there to survive and still makes vp a money maker for the house.

Dan

Dan, just curious about this statement: "but there are quite a few people that I know personally who are making $40-50K/yr." Is this before or after income taxes. ALL profits from gaming must be reported as income, not just those on a W2G. thanks.
Money, I honestly don't know their personal situation as to how they handle their gambling wins from a tax perspective. What one should do and what one does can likely be two very different scenarios. The people I'm referrring to are speaking of gross income which is just the same as in the conventional workforce. When someone says "I make $72K/hr.", I always take this to mean gross pay and I'm thinking that this is the case here as well.

Let me preface this by saying that I don't claim to be a tax professional so these are rather opinions than statement of fact.

Cash back and "welfare checks" are generally considered to be "non taxable"....in the same vein as comped hotel rooms and meals.

If a person has few W2-G's due in part to playing low denom but large number of multi-line machines, they may opt to simply report the W2-G's as reportable income and "forget" about the rest of their wins.

I've never claimed that $40-50K as gross income is a lot of money. However, it is a living and there are a number of people who like the lifestyle and independence that gambling offers and given a 15% unemployment rate in the Las Vegas area, I would suggest that there are more riskier ways to (not) make a living. You may not be able to live on this but take a look at the median income figures for many folks and this amout of money would be construed as getting a raise. You can generally decide what hours you want to work and conversely, when you want to take off. You're not tied to a desk. You don't have a boss (unless you're married). You likely get a number of perks such as free food, shows, concerts, cruises, etc.

In my personal situation, we report all wins and use both a gambling log and casino win/loss statements to support our return. I have enough other problems than to add the IRS to my list of headaches. My only bone of contention is that although on a shared bankroll, by not being married, we can't offset each other's wins and losses but I guess that's a conversation and argument for a separate post.

Dan
Well said, Dan. Now, can you tell me where I can make that "$72K/hr" ?
Dan

Question on your IRS reporting. Do you show net winnings on your return or do you show W2 G amounts + other winnings. Example of gambling visit below:


Machine A = W2 G $ 4000 money input - $ 600 Net Win = $3,400

Machine B = money input - $ 1,000 - No Cash Out Net Loss = $1,000

Machine C = money input - $ 400 - Cash out - $ 1,100 Net Win = $ 700

First, I presume that you aren't filing as a professional gambler and that you report gambling winnings as other income and itemize gambling losses on Schedule A. In the above example, would you report $ 4,700 (4,000 + 700) as other income and $ 1,600 (1,000 + 600) as gambling losses on schedule A. The second alternative would be to report $ 4,100 ( 3,400 + 700 ) as other income and $ 1,000 as gambling losses on schedule A. The net result under either alternative is the same.

The above example doesn't have much impact in ones taxes if this person only had one visit per year. However, when one has $ 500,000 in W2 G's it does have an impact on ones taxes as AGI comes into play when calculating exemptions and itemized deductions. The AGI amount also comes into play when calculating taxpayer medicare cost under social security.

If you or Arc would indicate how you you report wins and losses it would certainly be appreciated. I have written the IRS and attempting to get a ruling on how to report gambling wins and losses rather than showing W2 G's + other winnings as other income. If I am able to find out anything I will definitely let everyone know.

Thanks

The Gambler



Pretty much...you'd need a job that pays 72K per hour and a shit load of "other" money to be able to grind out 40K/50K per year as a professional gambler.

Casinos love folks who come in willing to lose 10k to 20K in one session, and then make plans on where to get more money, which they're gonna need to keep playing and eventually (more like hopefully) make back "some" of their losses.

All for the sake of grinding out $40K (pre tax) per year.

What these AP's aren't telling you is that you can make a living playing VP... ONLY if you have a SHIT LOAD of money to start off with. Just read some of the comments on this thread....and how they say that losing 7K to 10K in one session is NOT unheard of, and actually pretty common..... Who the fuck has that kind of money to piss away?

Your regular working stiff, which the "majority" of us are, wouldn't make it as pro players.

Personally I never put more then $100 bucks in any one machine at a time...I am usually a 40 dollar player per machine session, and I move on if I hit 100+ bucks or if I lose the whole 40.

If I had large sums of fuckin money..., fooling myself into thinking I can grind away a couple of bucks at a casino by dumping mass quantities of cash into poker slots, is NOT how I would want to spend my time nor my cash.

I'd still gamble, but it would be for fun only! Just like the old brochure at the casino cage says "When the fun stops..."

Example: I showed up to the casino, this past Monday, with 40 bucks, plus some FSP on my players card, and plenty of time to kill. I decided to go out and have some "FUN"

I hit a $1000 buck royal on my last 20 bucks, and I had a BLAST!! I didn't have to say..."Well that $1000 bucks gets me closer to being even for this session"

Even if I had lost that $40 and all of the FSP...I could have said...well thats the price of entertainment...I lost 40 bucks cash, and I had a fun time doing it.

You see those other types in the casino all the time...they win huge amounts and they look like their cat just died. Yeah they may have just won 20K but they had already pissed away 140K previous to that hit. Now the player only has to win 7 more of those 20K hits to "break even" Whoopeee!

Yeah grinding away....those are really Great times...sign me up for that shit! Sheeesh

--Rizzo
Quote

Originally posted by: The Gambler
If you or Arc would indicate how you you report wins and losses it would certainly be appreciated. I have written the IRS and attempting to get a ruling on how to report gambling wins and losses rather than showing W2 G's + other winnings as other income. If I am able to find out anything I will definitely let everyone know.

Thanks

The Gambler


I used to go with the w2g total on the 1040 for wins and then put the losses on Sch. A that brought my total win to the proper amount. That was based on the way my tax program worked. However, I got tired of the AGI issues (lots of medical expenses went down the drain) and last year filed as a pro for the first time. However, that also has some negatives in that you now have to pay self-employment tax.

They get you one way or the other.
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