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Originally posted by: melbedewyQuote
...Try going 300,000 hands with no royal and fewer than expected "bonus" hands and see how much "profit" you will make....
One of my friends dropped almost $100,000 on the dollar FPDW (a game so "good" it doesn't even exist anymore) at the Frontier.
If you take a game like Jacks where the RF cycle is just over 40K hands, the likelihood that you will go 300K hands without a RF is .06%. Suffice to say that this isn't a likely outcome and could only be attributable to poor play skills.
Your friend either lacked skill or is BS'ing you on the loss. With a bankroll of half of that, your chance of going bust is less than .2% and I'm not even taking into consideration cash back which from memory Frontier offered. To be clear, it's virtually impossible to lose $100K on a $1 single line FPDW game unless you're incompetent.
I have a friend who is currently playing a game in LV with a theo return of $375/hr. In fact, he's actually ahead of the theo curve. I realize he could be the other way as well but he's getting so much daily free play that he virtually cannot lose overall. Sure, he's the first to say that he can lose $7K in a day but he has the skills and bankroll to play this correctly and there's little doubt that he will succeed over the life of the promo.
Even Dancer will concede that one needs to look at the total package to include cash back, bounce back, promo's, tournaments, drawings, etc. to get to a positive bottom line. They are not mutually exclusive...the vp play gets the checks, invites, etc. and that's where you make your money.
In the case of South Point where the masses were bemoaning the end of the welfare checks, I know three people who's offers went up to $75/wk. instead of the previously A mailer high of $50/wk. In addition, it included a meal for two at Michael's which we happened to breach the magical $700 mark. I don't count food or hotels in my figures to determine if this is a financially successful endeavor but I do nonetheless consider it a nice perk.
Money, I already stated that it might not be a "living" by everyone's definition but there are quite a few people that I know personally who are making $40-50K/yr. In many cases, couples play together but on separate accounts and both achieve these results. Contrary to what melbedewy believes, the casino marketing departments aren't all as sharp as many people give them credit for. Think about how many promo's come out only to be cancelled after a few days while sharpies take advantage of the casino's stupidity.
I have one Vegas casino that's giving me $2,400/mth. in free play on less than a quarter million coin in on a jacks game with cash back. I can assure you that I'm making money on that promo. The same casino has a full pay machine on a bank of three that's paying 5X points every day. You don't read about these things on LVA or vpfree....it requires people who have interest, brains and tenacity to get off their ass and find them.
VP isn't my full time gig as I would agree that my personal definition of making a living couldn't be met by what I earn doing this. However, I have lots of friends who are relatively young and retired who are supplementing their income in a very nice way by playing. For them, it's something they like to do and they consider it a hobby that pays. In addition, any player with any steam at all would never HAVE TO pay for a meal in Vegas. This is a real savings given that one needs to eat.
I never contended that hitting a high number of RF's equalled making a living at VP. It was melbedewy who twisted that statement and said that this thread supported his believe that due to a lack of RF's by some posters it proved it was impossible to make a living playing vp.
Games, plays and promo's come and go. A pro or intelligent recreational player doesn't stay married to a particular casino. If the combined return doesn't support a positive theo outcome, they simply move on and find the next play. I don't care what people believe....I know it for fact and from doing this on a part time basis....there are more good plays out there than I have time to get to in a given month.
I'm not trying to convince anyone as what Arci has said before on a few occassions is true....if everyone was a sharp, there would be no good games. I'm happy to have people misplay hands, go with their "gut feel", follow Singer and his like.....this allows whatever good games that are out there to survive and still makes vp a money maker for the house.
Dan