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Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

mrmarcus12LVA
mrmarcus12LVA
Oct 30, 2011
4:57am
Block User
Posit half of all the cattle are female and half are male.
Posit the cattle are corraled and then moved into pens, by twos.

1. What % of the pens contain two females?

Posit an animal is removed from one of the pens, and determined to be female.

2. What is the chance the remaining animal in that pen is female?
2a. Why did your answer change after the cattle were placed in pens?

Posit the female animal removed already has a brand.

3. Why do your answers to BOTH 2 AND 2a change?
mrmarcus12LVA
mrmarcus12LVA
Oct 30, 2011
5:09am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Need more time + radio programming + ropes + girls + sheep + Rob Singer = this is going to be quite an analysis.
Damned if that isn't the most humorous thing you've posted. A change in medication, possibly?

FrankKneeland
FrankKneeland
Oct 30, 2011
6:05am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Why would the SEX of the other child matter? NOTHING happens when someone names something, except in the mind of the person doing the naming. Likewise when someone sees someone else's crotch.


The reason you are having trouble with this is because you are trying to use common sense to solve a problem that can only be solved with combinational mathematics and application of the process of elimination. Nothing happens in your head when you name one of the girls. Quite a lot changes if you are using combinational math to solve the problem. It is in fact an example of a problem that cannot be solved in your head.

First we define your sample space:

1. In the first problem we have only: B-B, G-G, G-B, and B-G. That's four combinations.

2. Once you name one of the girls the sample space expands to include girls who are named Florida and those that are not. We will call the Girl Named Florida "GNF". : BB, GNF-G, G-GNF, GNF-B, G-B, B-GNF, B-G. That's seven combinations. See something did change.

If we then eliminate those combinations that do not contain a Girl Named Florida we get:

GNF--G
G-GNF
GNF-B
B-GNF

You will notice that half of these are combinations that include two girls. Hence the increase to 50%.

Naming one of them changes everything, it just isn't obvious unless you do the work on paper. According to the book I read, this is an example of a ubiquitous cognitive distortion we all have, caused by a heuristic the brain uses to solve such problems.

Remember my article the Unclimbable Mountain? This would be one of those can't be done in your head things.
FrankKneeland
FrankKneeland
Oct 30, 2011
6:09am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
New Puzzle 2: Who Keeps Sheep

The following puzzle is designed to rate someone on their reasoning skills and reveal how they solve problems. It is easy to solve if you think in a particular way and impossible to solve otherwise.

You should time yourself and show work. The answer is not as important as the method you use to solve it. Therefore, simply giving the answer without showing how you got it would be considered a fail. I did it just for fun and got the correct answer in about 30 min. Try to beat me.

• There are 5 adjacent residences each made of a different material.
• In each resides a man of a different race who owns them.
• Each owner has a preferred beverage. Each of the five also has a preferred weapon and keeps a single type of animal as pet or for food. No owner has the same animal, fights with the same weapon nor consumes the same beverage.
• The question is. “Who Keeps Sheep?”

CLUES

1. The Dane lives in the Grass Hut.
2. The Norman has a Tiger.
3. The Viking drinks Mead.
4. The Cloth Tent is to the left of the Brick House.
5. The owner of the Cloth Tent likes Ale.
6. The person that uses a Long Sword has a Cow.
7. The owner of the Tudor house uses a Long Bow.
8. The person in the middle residence drinks only Water.
9. The Brit lives in the first residence.
10. The person that fights with a Mace, lives next to the one that keeps Horses.
11. The person with the Pig lives next to the one that's an Archer.
12. The one that fights with a Rapier drinks Wine.
13. The Goth has a Battle Axe.
14. The Brit lives next to the guy with a Mud Hut.
15. The person that fights with a Mace, has a neighbor that drinks Guinness.

NOTE: It is original and not on-line, so it's not possible to look up the answer.


Shepherds


No, though funny, that is not the answer. It is one of the people mentioned in the clues. Remember even if you get the right answer by chance, it is a fail unless you show work and how you got the answer.

a2a3dseddie
a2a3dseddie
Oct 30, 2011
6:28am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
Quote
Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
New Puzzle 2: Who Keeps Sheep

The following puzzle is designed to rate someone on their reasoning skills and reveal how they solve problems. It is easy to solve if you think in a particular way and impossible to solve otherwise.

You should time yourself and show work. The answer is not as important as the method you use to solve it. Therefore, simply giving the answer without showing how you got it would be considered a fail. I did it just for fun and got the correct answer in about 30 min. Try to beat me.

• There are 5 adjacent residences each made of a different material.
• In each resides a man of a different race who owns them.
• Each owner has a preferred beverage. Each of the five also has a preferred weapon and keeps a single type of animal as pet or for food. No owner has the same animal, fights with the same weapon nor consumes the same beverage.
• The question is. “Who Keeps Sheep?”

CLUES

1. The Dane lives in the Grass Hut.
2. The Norman has a Tiger.
3. The Viking drinks Mead.
4. The Cloth Tent is to the left of the Brick House.
5. The owner of the Cloth Tent likes Ale.
6. The person that uses a Long Sword has a Cow.
7. The owner of the Tudor house uses a Long Bow.
8. The person in the middle residence drinks only Water.
9. The Brit lives in the first residence.
10. The person that fights with a Mace, lives next to the one that keeps Horses.
11. The person with the Pig lives next to the one that's an Archer.
12. The one that fights with a Rapier drinks Wine.
13. The Goth has a Battle Axe.
14. The Brit lives next to the guy with a Mud Hut.
15. The person that fights with a Mace, has a neighbor that drinks Guinness.

NOTE: It is original and not on-line, so it's not possible to look up the answer.


Shepherds


No, though funny, that is not the answer. It is one of the people mentioned in the clues. Remember even if you get the right answer by chance, it is a fail unless you show work and how you got the answer.


What about none of the above since you don't list a sheep in your clues.
snidely333
snidely333
Oct 30, 2011
6:41am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
Quote
Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
New Puzzle 2: Who Keeps Sheep

The following puzzle is designed to rate someone on their reasoning skills and reveal how they solve problems. It is easy to solve if you think in a particular way and impossible to solve otherwise.

You should time yourself and show work. The answer is not as important as the method you use to solve it. Therefore, simply giving the answer without showing how you got it would be considered a fail. I did it just for fun and got the correct answer in about 30 min. Try to beat me.

• There are 5 adjacent residences each made of a different material.
• In each resides a man of a different race who owns them.
• Each owner has a preferred beverage. Each of the five also has a preferred weapon and keeps a single type of animal as pet or for food. No owner has the same animal, fights with the same weapon nor consumes the same beverage.
• The question is. “Who Keeps Sheep?”

CLUES

1. The Dane lives in the Grass Hut.
2. The Norman has a Tiger.
3. The Viking drinks Mead.
4. The Cloth Tent is to the left of the Brick House.
5. The owner of the Cloth Tent likes Ale.
6. The person that uses a Long Sword has a Cow.
7. The owner of the Tudor house uses a Long Bow.
8. The person in the middle residence drinks only Water.
9. The Brit lives in the first residence.
10. The person that fights with a Mace, lives next to the one that keeps Horses.
11. The person with the Pig lives next to the one that's an Archer.
12. The one that fights with a Rapier drinks Wine.
13. The Goth has a Battle Axe.
14. The Brit lives next to the guy with a Mud Hut.
15. The person that fights with a Mace, has a neighbor that drinks Guinness.

NOTE: It is original and not on-line, so it's not possible to look up the answer.


Shepherds


No, though funny, that is not the answer. It is one of the people mentioned in the clues. Remember even if you get the right answer by chance, it is a fail unless you show work and how you got the answer.


What about none of the above since you don't list a sheep in your clues.


Once you figure out who has the tiger, horses, pig and cow you can deduce that the house/person without an animal has sheep. Or maybe you can't make that assumption and there is another animal kept by the undefined house/person.
snidely333
snidely333
Oct 30, 2011
6:49am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
Quote
Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Why would the SEX of the other child matter? NOTHING happens when someone names something, except in the mind of the person doing the naming. Likewise when someone sees someone else's crotch.


The reason you are having trouble with this is because you are trying to use common sense to solve a problem that can only be solved with combinational mathematics and application of the process of elimination. Nothing happens in your head when you name one of the girls. Quite a lot changes if you are using combinational math to solve the problem. It is in fact an example of a problem that cannot be solved in your head.

First we define your sample space:

1. In the first problem we have only: B-B, G-G, G-B, and B-G. That's four combinations.

2. Once you name one of the girls the sample space expands to include girls who are named Florida and those that are not. We will call the Girl Named Florida "GNF". : BB, GNF-G, G-GNF, GNF-B, G-B, B-GNF, B-G. That's seven combinations. See something did change.

If we then eliminate those combinations that do not contain a Girl Named Florida we get:

GNF--G
G-GNF
GNF-B
B-GNF

You will notice that half of these are combinations that include two girls. Hence the increase to 50%.

Naming one of them changes everything, it just isn't obvious unless you do the work on paper. According to the book I read, this is an example of a ubiquitous cognitive distortion we all have, caused by a heuristic the brain uses to solve such problems.

Remember my article the Unclimbable Mountain? This would be one of those can't be done in your head things.


I see now. MrMarcus' reasoning on question 2 works on question 3.
mrmarcus12LVA
mrmarcus12LVA
Oct 30, 2011
8:32am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland Nothing happens in your head when you name one of the girls... Naming one of them changes everything, it just isn't obvious unless you do the work on paper. According to the book I read, this is an example of a ubiquitous cognitive distortion we all have, caused by a heuristic the brain uses to solve such problems.
Obviously, the author is full of shit. Nothing changes anywhere when I name something... except in my head, where a cognition is created. That cognition changes nothing, except itself. There is no change to the thing that was named.

Naming a girl "Florida" doesn't create a girl named "Florida" (which "expands the sample space," according to the inane author). It is through such specious reasoning that we can construct proofs that the sex of one child depends upon the sex of A DIFFERENT CHILD.

FrankKneeland
FrankKneeland
Oct 30, 2011
8:48am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: a2a3dseddie

What about none of the above since you don't list a sheep in your clues.


The omission of that information is part of the puzzle. It is not required to answer it.

Please note: I have sent this to other people and even did it myself in another form. It's totally solvable and so far only one of my friends has been unable to do so.
snidely333
snidely333
Oct 30, 2011
9:01am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland Nothing happens in your head when you name one of the girls... Naming one of them changes everything, it just isn't obvious unless you do the work on paper. According to the book I read, this is an example of a ubiquitous cognitive distortion we all have, caused by a heuristic the brain uses to solve such problems.
Obviously, the author is full of shit. Nothing changes anywhere when I name something... except in my head, where a cognition is created. That cognition changes nothing, except itself. There is no change to the thing that was named.

Naming a girl "Florida" doesn't create a girl named "Florida" (which "expands the sample space," according to the inane author). It is through such specious reasoning that we can construct proofs that the sex of one child depends upon the sex of A DIFFERENT CHILD.


Naming the child does change the probability. It is the same as saying the first born twin is a girl. What is probability that the second twin is also a girl. That is 50%.

Saying that one of the twins is a girl, what is probability both are girls is 33%.
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