Vegas Free-for-All - Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

FrankKneeland

Oct 30, 2011
9:04am

Quote

Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA

Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland Nothing happens in your head when you name one of the girls. Naming one of them changes everything, it just isn't obvious unless you do the work on paper. According to the book I read, this is an example of a ubiquitous cognitive distortion we all have, caused by a heuristic the brain uses to solve such problems.

Obviously, the author is full of shit. Nothing changes anywhere when I name something... except in my head, where a cognition is created. That cognition changes nothing, except itself. There is no change to the thing that was named.

It is through such specious reasoning that we can construct proofs that the sex of one child depends upon the sex of A DIFFERENT CHILD.

Yes well I suggest that if that's how you feel you should contact him. The book is called "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives". The author's name is Leonard Mlodinow: https://www.amazon.com/Leonard-Mlodinow/e/B001IGP3W0/ref=ntt_athr_dp_pel_1

He also talked in the book about how upset certain people get about this particular question, if they fall into the category of people who's brains apparently can't grasp it. A 10,000+ letter write in ensued after a columnist published such an answer in her column and it took years before they finally had to agree with her and retract their comments. You may have heard about it: The Monty Hall Problem? (It requires the same type of logic to solve).

Since this isn't my idea I certainly have no problem with you disagreeing. Thought you might like to know who you were disagreeing with.

FrankKneeland

Oct 30, 2011
9:07am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: snidely333

Naming the child does change the probability. It is the same as saying the first born twin is a girl. What is probability that the second twin is also a girl. That is 50%.

Saying that one of the twins is a girl, what is probability both are girls is 33%.

Well I'm at least glad somebody understood the answer and the reason for it.

FrankKneeland

Oct 30, 2011
9:10am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: snidely333

Once you figure out who has the tiger, horses, pig and cow you can deduce that the house/person without an animal has sheep. Or maybe you can't make that assumption and there is another animal kept by the undefined house/person.

You are on the right track!!!

No undefined house or person, just the five.

FrankKneeland

Oct 30, 2011
9:36am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA

Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland Nothing happens in your head when you name one of the girls... Naming one of them changes everything, it just isn't obvious unless you do the work on paper. According to the book I read, this is an example of a ubiquitous cognitive distortion we all have, caused by a heuristic the brain uses to solve such problems.

Obviously, the author is full of shit. Nothing changes anywhere when I name something... except in my head, where a cognition is created. That cognition changes nothing, except itself. There is no change to the thing that was named.

Naming a girl "Florida" doesn't create a girl named "Florida" (which "expands the sample space," according to the inane author). It is through such specious reasoning that we can construct proofs that the sex of one child depends upon the sex of A DIFFERENT CHILD.

I'm sorry I could have explained this better. I was just going over the answer with my roommate that also had been having trouble understanding the answer and he summed it up very well. I'll share what he said and perhaps that will help.

FK Roommate paraphrase:
"Ah now I get it! The reason the answer changes is because the question changes when you ask about specific things, such as a named girl. Without a name the girls are generic, and can come in any order. Once you name one they become specific and can have additional combinations. It's not the answer that changes, just because of adding a name. It's really the question that changes, and of course different questions can have different answers. What's so irritating about this question is that it really isn't obvious how the question changes by naming one of the girls."

You stated that, "Nothing changes anywhere when I name something... except in my head, where a cognition is created." This is correct. What you don't seem to understand is that this has nothing to do with the thing changing and everything to do with the question about the thing changing.

Hope that helps.

snidely333

Oct 30, 2011
10:22am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
New Puzzle 2: Who Keeps Sheep

The following puzzle is designed to rate someone on their reasoning skills and reveal how they solve problems. It is easy to solve if you think in a particular way and impossible to solve otherwise.

You should time yourself and show work. The answer is not as important as the method you use to solve it. Therefore, simply giving the answer without showing how you got it would be considered a fail. I did it just for fun and got the correct answer in about 30 min. Try to beat me.

• There are 5 adjacent residences each made of a different material.
• In each resides a man of a different race who owns them.
• Each owner has a preferred beverage. Each of the five also has a preferred weapon and keeps a single type of animal as pet or for food. No owner has the same animal, fights with the same weapon nor consumes the same beverage.
• The question is. “Who Keeps Sheep?”

CLUES

1. The Dane lives in the Grass Hut.
2. The Norman has a Tiger.
3. The Viking drinks Mead.
4. The Cloth Tent is to the left of the Brick House.
5. The owner of the Cloth Tent likes Ale.
6. The person that uses a Long Sword has a Cow.
7. The owner of the Tudor house uses a Long Bow.
8. The person in the middle residence drinks only Water.
9. The Brit lives in the first residence.
10. The person that fights with a Mace, lives next to the one that keeps Horses.
11. The person with the Pig lives next to the one that's an Archer.
12. The one that fights with a Rapier drinks Wine.
13. The Goth has a Battle Axe.
14. The Brit lives next to the guy with a Mud Hut.
15. The person that fights with a Mace, has a neighbor that drinks Guinness.

NOTE: It is original and not on-line, so it's not possible to look up the answer.

The Goth.

FrankKneeland

Oct 30, 2011
10:25am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: snidely333

Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
New Puzzle 2: Who Keeps Sheep

The following puzzle is designed to rate someone on their reasoning skills and reveal how they solve problems. It is easy to solve if you think in a particular way and impossible to solve otherwise.

You should time yourself and show work. The answer is not as important as the method you use to solve it. Therefore, simply giving the answer without showing how you got it would be considered a fail. I did it just for fun and got the correct answer in about 30 min. Try to beat me.

• There are 5 adjacent residences each made of a different material.
• In each resides a man of a different race who owns them.
• Each owner has a preferred beverage. Each of the five also has a preferred weapon and keeps a single type of animal as pet or for food. No owner has the same animal, fights with the same weapon nor consumes the same beverage.
• The question is. “Who Keeps Sheep?”

CLUES

1. The Dane lives in the Grass Hut.
2. The Norman has a Tiger.
3. The Viking drinks Mead.
4. The Cloth Tent is to the left of the Brick House.
5. The owner of the Cloth Tent likes Ale.
6. The person that uses a Long Sword has a Cow.
7. The owner of the Tudor house uses a Long Bow.
8. The person in the middle residence drinks only Water.
9. The Brit lives in the first residence.
10. The person that fights with a Mace, lives next to the one that keeps Horses.
11. The person with the Pig lives next to the one that's an Archer.
12. The one that fights with a Rapier drinks Wine.
13. The Goth has a Battle Axe.
14. The Brit lives next to the guy with a Mud Hut.
15. The person that fights with a Mace, has a neighbor that drinks Guinness.

NOTE: It is original and not on-line, so it's not possible to look up the answer.

The Goth.

And how before I tell you if you are right or not, how did you come to this conclusion?

~FK

snidely333

Oct 30, 2011
10:31am

Block User

Just starting to fill in the blanks. Brit is in house 1, mud house is house 2, water in house 3. Cloth has to be either house 3 or 4 and we know it can't be 3 because cloth likes ale. So, cloth is 4 and Brick is 5. etc.

BobOrme

Oct 30, 2011
10:35am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: FrankKneeland

Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333

Naming the child does change the probability. It is the same as saying the first born twin is a girl. What is probability that the second twin is also a girl. That is 50%.

Saying that one of the twins is a girl, what is probability both are girls is 33%.

Well I'm at least glad somebody understood the answer and the reason for it.

I thought the question didn't involve twins, but was about two separate births. The chances of the first birth being a girl would be 50%. That would not affect the chances of the second birth also being a girl. If the pill lands on a black number on a roulette wheel, that doesn't alter the chances of it landing on a black number on the next spin.

FrankKneeland

Oct 30, 2011
10:36am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: snidely333
Just starting to fill in the blanks. Brit is in house 1, mud house is house 2, water in house 3. Cloth has to be either house 3 or 4 and we know it can't be 3 because cloth likes ale. So, cloth is 4 and Brick is 5. etc.

Excellent. Yep that's how it's solved and you are of course correct, the Goth was the only one it could have been. Weird how some people get this easily while others insist it can't be solved. It's not even a function of pure IQ, but instead relates to how people reason.

Good job!

snidely333

Oct 30, 2011
10:41am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: BobOrme

Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333

Naming the child does change the probability. It is the same as saying the first born twin is a girl. What is probability that the second twin is also a girl. That is 50%.

Saying that one of the twins is a girl, what is probability both are girls is 33%.

Well I'm at least glad somebody understood the answer and the reason for it.

2 spins of roulette wheel.
One spin is red. What is probability both spins are red?
First spin is red. What is probability both spins are red?

«‹12 ›»

Already a LVA subscriber?
To continue reading, choose an option below:

Diamond Membership

$3 per month

Unlimited access to LVA website

Exclusive subscriber-only content

Limited Member Rewards Online

Join Now

Platinum Membership

$50 per year

Unlimited access to LVA website

Exclusive subscriber-only content

Exclusive Member Rewards Book

Join Now