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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
No, I haven't confirmed your answer because there were two DIFFERENT QUESTIONS. Anyone can prove ANYTHING by altering the question to include the answer. Frank ASKED THE WRONG QUESTION to get the 1/3 answer. Then he said the answer was 1/3. Then he said that the question he asked included a bunch of stuff it didn't include, and because he had included the stuff he didn't include, the only correct answer is 1/3. (He also cited an authority that no one is likely to actually consult).
Likewise the question "Who keeps sheep?" There are no sheep posited, therefore the correct answer is NONE OF THEM. But, no, suddenly sheep are posited when they weren't, and the correct answer is Goth.
These are the methods of the con artists of the world. Politicians, ponzi schemers, gambling system hawkers, etc. They claim to be IMPLIEDLY correct, and then claim that what was implied has been PROVED.
Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
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Originally posted by: snidely333Quote
Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Posit 4 women, each with two children.
Posit the chance that any child is female is 50%.
Posit we select one of the four and she does NOT have two male children.
1. What is our best estimate of the chance she has two female children?
NOW, NOW, NOW our answer is 1/3.
Saying no male children is the same thing as saying at least one female. You've confirmed my answer.
No, I haven't confirmed your answer because there were two DIFFERENT QUESTIONS. Anyone can prove ANYTHING by altering the question to include the answer. Frank ASKED THE WRONG QUESTION to get the 1/3 answer. Then he said the answer was 1/3. Then he said that the question he asked included a bunch of stuff it didn't include, and because he had included the stuff he didn't include, the only correct answer is 1/3. (He also cited an authority that no one is likely to actually consult).
Likewise the question "Who keeps sheep?" There are no sheep posited, therefore the correct answer is NONE OF THEM. But, no, suddenly sheep are posited when they weren't, and the correct answer is Goth.
These are the methods of the con artists of the world. Politicians, ponzi schemers, gambling system hawkers, etc. They claim to be IMPLIEDLY correct, and then claim that what was implied has been PROVED.
MrMarcus: how, in your opinion, does this affect the credibility of Frank's evaluation of the RS system? If it has no effect please say so.