Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

Sorry Money, but I've explained this to you many times. You simply refuse or are unable to understand. That is your problem and your continued attempts to assert things about Singer's system which are patently false is just plain silly. Do yourself a favor ... keep quiet ... all you are doing is removing all doubt.

As for the special plays, I only bring them up because they don't do what Singer claims. They are evidence that Singer has never really done an assessment of his system. Since he claims he has, it is proof he is lying. Just one of many proofs but one nevertheless. You can't accept you've been lied to and fell for it so easily. Suck it up, it's a fact.

Arcimedes: you don't like the way Singer plays. So say that.

But do not make false statements that Singer disputes the math. He has said it in text and on video that he does not dispute the math.

To everyone else: it's a free for all forum. If you don't like to read this--- don't.

Arc we are waiting for you to respond to Frank on "the other" forum.

What is "the other" forum?

What does he claim they do?

Not me. I already know the math, I know Singer's special plays don't do what he claims, I know he has lied about his own results, I know he has lied about never posting under an alias, I know he constantly lies about pretty much anything and everything. Why would anyone care about the system of a proven liar? Why do you?

I have no why idea why i'm chiming in here, but i have to ask you arc,why do you really give a shit about this? It has absolutely no bearing on you,does it? You've stated the math point ad nauseum,why do you persist?

J

It's something to do on a cold day. And, while it has nothing to do with my play, it can be entertaining at times.

Still on vacation. Here's the solution to the Girl Named Florida Question as per the Math Nerds Website. If you are still contesting it, I suggest you get a membership there and make your case. They are more used to such discussion and will likely be better suited to explain things.

MATH NERDS
Bayes theorem states that if we have two events A and B, then the conditional probability of A given B, P(A|B) = P(A and B)/P(B).

In this situation A is the event that both the offspring of a mother are girls and B is the event that one of the offsprings is a girl named Florida.


Let's say mothers name their female offspring Florida with probability p (where p is quite small).

The event B occurs if one of the following mutually exclusive events occurs:

E_1: First child is a girl, named Florida, Second child is a boy
E_2: First child is a boy, second child is a girls named Florida
E_3: First child is a girl named Florida, Second child is a girl not named Florida
E_4: First child is a girl not named Florida, Second child is a girl named Florida
E_5: First child is a girls named Florida, Second child is girl named Florida

P(B) can be found by summing the probabilities of the five events described above.
E_1 occurs with probability 0.5*p*0.5
E_2 occurs with probability 0.5*0.5*p
E_3 occurs with probability 0.5*p*0.5*(1-p)
E_4 occurs with probability 0.5*(1-p)*0.5*p
E_5 occurs with probability 0.5*p*0.5*p

So P(B) = 0.25p + 0.25p + 0.25p*(1-p) + 0.25*p*(1-p) + 0.25*p^2 = 0.5p + 0.5p - 0.5p^2 + 0.25p^2
Since p is small, we can ignore the p^2 term and we have P(B) = p

Now the event (A and B) can both occur only if events E_3, E_4, and E_5 occurs.
So P(A and B) is 0.25p(1-p) + 0.25p(1-p) + 0.25p^2
Again since p is small, we can ignore p^2 and assume 1- p is almost p
So P(A and B) = 0.5p

So by Bayes theorem, the answer is 0.5p/p = 1/2.

Depends on how fast you drink your beer

Does their answer change when they say "Abracadabra," instead?