Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

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Originally posted by: loydthelover

I think the same applies to MoneyLa. I mean I know that he enjoys being the personal mouth piece of Rob Singer and he is the president of his butt kissing club but damn enough is enough.

Besides that didnt he say at one time he was thru with this board?


yes, but he has proven himself to be a liar quite a few times so whats one more?

Just for the hell of it I dropped by Alan's board this morning. All it has become is Singer sprouting his normal BS with Alan prompting him. I'm beginning to believe Alan is getting a cut in Singer's con. It's about the only thing that makes sense. No one could be that dense, could they?

It's also interesting that Singer has called Frank a liar ("Making any amount of money using advantage play is a myth propagated by those who sell that particular video poker system for a profit "). Since Frank has a book he fits the description perfectly. Should be interesting to see how that fits into Frank's analysis.

Singer mentioned he's now living in Las Vegas. Could it be that his wife tossed him out? He claimed he was going to be touring the country back in August. He also claimed he was giving up VP altogether not long ago. Lies after lies after lies.
Back from vacation. The girl I had visiting, left last night for home and I think it would be helpful to my psyche to get back to work as quickly as possible. If anyone would like a pic you'll need to explain photo uploading. I read the forum help and it wasn't very helpful. I saw nothing on image uploading.

As I remember it, I left this thread around page 8 on. I'll catch up now. and reply en'mass.
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Originally posted by: mrmarcus12LVA
Frank's evaluation is Frank's evaluation. I think it will be credible to Frank. I am not aware of any sound basis for choosing a hold that is inferior to some other hold, using long term expecation as the only measure.

I do agree with RS to the extent that many, many VP players do get ground down that way. The house does its best to be sure its wins outweigh its losses.


Thank you for withholding judgment. This post seems to show you at least understand that it is possible for people to be right about some things and wrong about others, and that normally no one is all right or all wrong all the time.

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Originally posted by: arcimedes
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
MrMarcus: how, in your opinion, does this affect the credibility of Frank's evaluation of the RS system? If it has no effect please say so.


Since Frank has stated his evaluation goes beyond the pure mathematics, then by definition it will be biased. So would any evaluation by anyone. For example, it will be interesting to see if Frank covers Singer's claims which are provably false. If he doesn't, then his evaluation will be lacking in at least one way and you can decide how that affects the credibility.

The problem you have is you're looking for something that doesn't exist. You want Frank to tell you that Singer's system has some kind of mathematical validity. It doesn't. Any positive things that Frank will say will be about what I call side-effects. Those kinds of effects are generally debatable. Some will value them and others will not.


Looking only at math and not factoring in the human element in my opinion would be just as biased as eliminating the math completely. People play video poker, computers do not, and this evaluation is for people. You and others like you have done some really good math work on the RS system, I have found no errors in your assessments. I also see no point in reinventing the wheel. I have really tried to do that which had not been done before and leave the well trodden paths untouched.

I would also like to stress at this point that I only did the evaluation because I was asked to do it.

Six months hence you'll not find me posting anything about it, or Rob Singer, as I will consider the matter closed, in so far as my little part in the great drama.

I have found the endeavor enlightening, but it's ability to teach me new things is vanishing as the Law of Diminishing Returns now holds sway.

I would strongly recommend that the same holds true for all of you. For me this is a first and last time venture. This doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results is troubling. It reminds me of Russian fish eagles in mating combat, talons locked, with the rocky ground spiraling up and neither combatant willing to release their grip.

There are so many troubling things in the world it seems ashame to be spending so much time on debating a video poker system. I'll finish what I started, but then I'm out.
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Originally posted by: arcimedes
Just for the hell of it I dropped by Alan's board this morning. All it has become is Singer sprouting his normal BS with Alan prompting him. I'm beginning to believe Alan is getting a cut in Singer's con. It's about the only thing that makes sense. No one could be that dense, could they?

It's also interesting that Singer has called Frank a liar ("Making any amount of money using advantage play is a myth propagated by those who sell that particular video poker system for a profit "). Since Frank has a book he fits the description perfectly. Should be interesting to see how that fits into Frank's analysis.

Singer mentioned he's now living in Las Vegas. Could it be that his wife tossed him out? He claimed he was going to be touring the country back in August. He also claimed he was giving up VP altogether not long ago. Lies after lies after lies.


Humorous that you'd be worried enough to do just what Singer said you would on Alans forum by reading every word he writes. But why tell more of your lies about him when people can go there and read the same thing you do? He doesn't say he lives in Vegas and the only thing he says about his wife is that they are fulltime RVers staying in Parump for the winter. Yes I know you'd love for them to have problems after what he says did to your wife.

I'm also not seeing where Frank K is selling a particular system for a profit. Isn't that the guy who's been scolding you for acting like a child over there?

Do yourself aecimedes, get him outta your head!



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Originally posted by: arcimedes
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Frank explained the problem on my forum when he said "what we have here is a major failure to communicate ... The main issue here is use of language ... "

Frank made an interesting comment about paytables. He said
"I certainly don't expect to get 103% return from a 103% game.".
Do you Arc? Because that is exactly what the entire debate comes down to.


No, once again you demonstrate a complete lack of comprehension. No math person expects any game to return exactly the expected return. What we expect is we will get closer to that number over time. What we should see is that we are closer to that value based on the number of hands played.

So, if I expect to be within +- 1% after a million hands that means I should be between 102% and 104% minus a small amount for errors. I will probably not be exactly 103%. At 2 millions hands it might be +- .5%.

Money, you will never understand "what the debate comes down to". You don't want to know. I've explained this very aspect of ER to you in the past, yet here you are once again showing you didn't pay attention.

I realize you are hoping that Frank will show that I have been wrong in my statements about the math. You are in for a big disappointment.


More than anything else I find miscommunication unsettling. It's bad enough when people legitimately disagree, when they argue pointlessly over things they might actually agree on, given perfect communication, it is simply sad.

I can confirm at this point that many of the things Rob takes issue with, that he thinks AP's are saying, they are not in fact saying. Visa versa is also true. I'll cover this in detail in the eval.

One such example is what is meant by return and expectation.
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Originally posted by: arcimedes
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Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
I have passed the question on to The Math Nerds Website run by Texas State university, where they answer math questions. When I get their answer back I will post it. You may all want to reserve judgment until the math nerds have had their say.



Maybe you should think about your answer on the infinite rope. That one is seriously wrong.


I never said it was right. If you read my post I believe I said the puzzle was impossible to answer for sure, and offered several possible explanations, had the question been worded better.

The original poster of the puzzle claimed that one of my answers was correct.

I would not have agreed, since I used a shotgun to pepper the target.
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Arc for the umpteeth time Singer does not dispute the math. His plays are nothing more than taking a shot at getting something better than what the math calls for.

This is why this whole debate about Singer is nonsense.

There is nothing to debate. There is nothing to discuss. As I said before he is like the craps bettor who bets the horn. He says he got lucky betting his way.

He also says he quits playing when he reaches a win goal.

He also says he follows the math 95 percent of the time.

You know what's amazing? People have been making a big stink over NOTHING.

Tell me Arc would you make a similar stink over a craps player who bets the horn and gets lucky?

Singer wins because he is a good money manager AND he knows when to leave. The special plys that you make a fuss over are really insignificant in the overall picture.


Money we covered this on your forum already. Have you forgotten?

We discussed that the mathematical approach to AP allows for no personal choice whatsoever, and that the mathematical approach also implicitly states that nothing beyond the math is required, or should ever be employed under any circumstances. You don't seem to get this at all.

If one deviates from the mathematically optimal play, they are disputing the math, even if they go on to say, "I'm not disputing the math, I just want to hold these other cards."

It would be like saying, "I don't dispute anything the Bible says and follow it flawlessly, I just prefer to worship Baal and have the occasional orgy." One could actually say this and not be disputing the Bible if the Bile didn't say, "Put no other gods before me and stop having orgies!" (or at least invite me)

If you don't dispute the math you follow the math every single hand, all the time without question.

Doing otherwise is "dispute", so far as the mathematical people are concerned. It may not be by your definition, but if you want to communicate with other people, you need to start thinking about what they mean as well as what they say.

This will all be covered in the eval in more depth.
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Originally posted by: jatki99
I have no why idea why i'm chiming in here, but i have to ask you arc,why do you really give a shit about this? It has absolutely no bearing on you,does it? You've stated the math point ad nauseum,why do you persist?

J


Arci persists because the only thing more annoying than having somebody disagree with you, is having them say that they agree and then prove otherwise. It's the VP equivalent of beating your child while telling them it's because you love them, and if you didn't care you wouldn't beat them. I would be surprised if this sort of thing didn't bug Arci to high heaven.

I don't agree with how serious he seems to take it, but I certainly sympathize. I can feel his pain, though for me it's more of a dull ache and easily treated. I just posted a comment on this "don't dispute the math issue". I cover it in the RS eval. I will make no attempts to continue fielding fly balls into the 107 inning.
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