Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

Nope, he does this silly thing where he pockets small wins as he goes along. These small wins are not placed back into the playing bankroll. So, when he loses his bankroll he has some money in this other pot to subtract from his total loss. This actually reduces his session win rate which completely goes against the claimed intentions of his system.

In all my simulations I never saw a value as low as Singer claims was his biggest loss. So, I think your observation is still valid.

I wonder what the odds are of collecting $25k in your pocket in tickets, but not once ever being $2500 ahead overall.

Good question and I think the answer is astronomically low odds.

Don't you think a good reporter might have asked this question to Singer?

Do you think he's ever been interviewed by a good reporter?

A good reporter reports, does not have his mind made up in advance, admits he doesn't know everything, recognizes that new issues develop as well as new questions, and quietly practices his craft while the critics keep trying to search for an advocate for their point of view.

Hi folks. I need some general consensus answers on these questions, since RS does indeed appear to use the words differently. Could a few folks chime in and answer these so I get more than just my opinion. Thanks!

Edge =
Odds =
Short Term =
Long Term =

~FK

Edge: The advantage attained or available to someone due to skill and abilities, rather than the luck of a draw, flip of a coin, etc. (ie: Tiger Woods has a big edge against me if we were to play golf. Yet, due to luck and short term variance, I may win. The "odds" of this happening are big. )

Odds: The likelihood of a thing occurring rather than not occurring.

Short term: A trial, or series of trials that are less than the long term, and which may rely on luck rather than skill for the results.

Long term: The expected number of trials required to allow all possible variations of a result to appear as the laws of probability and mathmatical expectations show those expected results. Enough trials to overcome "luck" and to result in close proximity to the expected value of those trials.


My definitions are subject to change depending on mood, situation, who I am speaking with, and specific circumstances at that moment in time.

Edge = Using the Dewey/KP/Snidely system this means the number of free cocktails divided by playing time. +EV if value of cocktails exceeds losses at machine. In other words, the overall benefit I receive relative to my expenditures. This would include freeplay and free room comps and the like.

Odds = Expressed as playing time and defined as how long my money will last playing a specific machine at a fixed denomination. Where the fixed denomination is the minimum the casino will provide complimentary cocktails. In other words, this is based solely on the machine or bets I'm making and does not include casino comps.

Short Term = New casino and me not knowing cocktail service experience. In other words, this is hit or miss and no pattern has been established.

Long Term = Established by several visits and anecdotal evidence as to which casinos provide good cocktail service and good cocktails. In other words, a pattern is established.

To illustrate this point: During last week's visit to Atlantic City, the 25cent VP JOB machines at The Borgata had a healthy 9/6 payout but the lovely Borgata Babes were not very attentive to my thirst quenching needs. The rare 5 cent JOB machines were hard to access. This casino had good odds but a poor edge.

Upon arrival at Harrah's, a mere hop, skip and jump away, the 5 cent VP 7/5 JOB machines were abundant. The cocktail server, while not as comely as the Borgata Babes was very attentive and provided copious complimentary cocktails. This casino had poor odds but a positive edge.

Short/Long term: After this experience, I now know that if my goal is cocktails and playing some low limit 5 cent at a poor paytable, I'm headlining Harrah's. If I want to try my luck at 25cent with a good paytable, I'm heading to Borgata.

Edge = ER+benefits-100%
Odds = Opposite of Evens
Short Term = Not definable precisely
Long Term = Not definable precisely

Well I'm getting a lot of humor material, but that's not really what I was going for. Here's the definitions I've always used and the ones used by the other pros I know.

Edge = The odds of a game calculated using combinational mathematics and expressed as a percentage. It is irrespective of play and calculated prior to play. For games such as roulette, craps and baccarat the edge is always in the houses favor (excluding things like malfunctioning wheels and dice manipulation). For progressives, Blackjack, and some non-progressive video poker, the edge can be in the players favor. Of course having the edge is no guarantee of winning as the edge is considered your expectation, results WILL vary, both to the positive and the negative. In this way the edge is like the center of the target, not every dart will hit the bullseye, they simple cluster around it. Depending on the size of the edge the equivalence assurance will vary as well as will the amount of variation. None of that matters to "the edge" as the equations used to calculate edge don't include number of trials in any way, nor do they include variance or standard deviation. Subsequently, your actual results after play do not and cannot influence the calculation of what edge you were playing at, since determining your edge is something one does before one plays. Results simply don't enter into it.

Odds = Often interchangeable with "edge" it is the payback of a bet, or game calculated using combinational mathematics. The primary difference is that the odds of a bet are usually expressed in whole numbers rather than percentages. (I.E. 3 for 2, or 2 to 1). A bet or game's odds are also irrespective of trials.

Short Term = A small number of trials that will not produce statistical significance. There is a precise mathematical formula for calculating this, which takes into account the number of trials and the variance of the game. In video poker the number is very close to 1 million hands. So the colloquial use would literally mean, "less than 1 million hands".

Long Term = The number of trials at a given game where you have a 99% chance of being within 1% + or - of expectancy. For most VP games it is right around 1,000,000 hands. So the colloquial use would literally mean, "more than 1 million hands".

Please note that these definitions are not close to what Rob uses, so if we can't agree on their use, I'm not going to be able to get consensus from Rob. My point with him is that for APs and mathematicians these terms have very specific meanings which are all related to mathematical equations, not layman use and that to converse intelligently we must use the specific not general definitions of the terms.

~FK

References: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance
vpFREE or Wizard of Odds also had a page on the technical use of the term "long-term". I can't find the liink right now but I didn't look to hard.