Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

Wasn't this the plot for the movie "The Matrix"?

The real truth is that the casinos can never win. It will take an infinite number of trials before the house edge is ever realized, and even being open all night they will never reach infinity. The players continue to win year after year and all the casinos can do is hope that by building bigger and bigger casions that they will eventually reach infinity. They never will. This is why the Vegas economy is crumbling.

This is me. My day job is to find patterns in chaos. I sit and play VP and try and guess what domination will hit for the next quads based on which is hitting for repeated pairs and trips. But I forget if I get a lot of the same domination for trips if that means they are due to hit soon for quads or if they used up and won't hit soon for quads. Yes, this is total nonsense, but these are the thoughts that go through my head as I play. I reject my thoughts as just the wind and never waver from basic strategy.

Now if I were taking the two button test, and told the results were random, then I'd just arbitrarily pick one of the buttons and stubbornly keep pressing the right button knowing that eventually I'd be right about 50% of the time. I would reject that left keeps winning as just the wind and short term fluctuations of chance.

I guess you just ignored Frank's comment and reposted the same nonsense. It takes an infinite number of hands to be within 0.0% of the expected return with a 100% probability. That all that means, Money. It has nothing to do with real life gambling. In real life you can be both above or below the expected return. And, over time it's likely that someone might go above for awhile, fall below, go back above, etc. The more hands you play the closer you get. Eventually you will be so close to the ER that it is indistinguishable from being the exact ER.

Think of a pendulum. When it starts out it swings wildly from one extreme to the other. But, over time it settles down until the swings are very short and it is very close to its resting point. The resting point is similar to the ER in gambling.

I know, I should apologize to the casino for taking the extra $800.

You forgot the sarcasm flag. Money will believe it's true.

Since neither the casino or player can reach infinity the money must disappear somewhere else. Another dimension? ... A black hole? ... Or, maybe into a systhew?

Very good Arc, I ACCEPT your pendulum analogy. Now will you accept that Singer's win goal strategy is when the pendulum swings positive for the player?

Oh, I ignored Kaypea's silliness. Nice guy but he's bored and just likes to pick fights.

You can just return it next week.

Which reminds me of a story. Earlier in the week I was lamenting about losing two $100 bills in a dollar VP machine at MSS and that being one of my biggest losses. Later I was looking back to see my biggest wins. It turns out that back in the spring of this year I won $200 in a dollar VP machine at MSS. I guess the old win goal theory goes out the window when it just turns out to be a temporary loan. The only way to truly have a win goal is to take the money and never return.

What about when the pendulum swings back, or does Singer defy gravity like he defies math and the pendulum, along with Singer, eventually floats off into space?

Ignore my silliness, for within it is more logic and truth than you can handle, and you can't handle the truth.

You see Kaypea this is where math doesn't help to prove Singer right or wrong because it is only about a personal preference.

Like Singer I have recognized that nearly every time I play VP I am ahead at some point . The "trick" is recognizing that point in time and before I give it all back.

Singer who has a bigger bankroll than I have has decided that a win goal of $2500. If I chose a win goal of $100 or even $50 I probably could also claim to being close to a forever winner. Perhaps at the $1 level you have to satisfied with a $5 win goal.

As an experiment the next five times you play keep track of the number of hands it took you to:

1. Have a profit
2. To have your maximum profit for your session

Then average the results of your five sessions. For the purposes of this discussion consider a session to be 100 hands. This will allow you to complete the experiment in about an hour.

I have a win goal of $200. I hit this last spring on a dollar machine at MSS and went home a winner. However I made the mistake of coming back this week and lost that same $200 in another dollar machine. How did the win goal help? I still lost it all. Sure it sat in my underwear drawer over the summer and gave my unmentionables the smell of money, but that's quickly erased by a little testicular perspiration.

Heading downstairs to see my BFF. Goodnight all.