Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

You can't quit until you've hit your $200 win goal or lost $5,000. You didn't lose enough to win.

No problem. The problem is the pendulum swings both ways and the resting point is the ER of the strategy/games being played. The pendulum of a negative progression like SPS is a little skewed but it's really not much different than a typical AP.

Your comment about being ahead during most sessions is pure nonsense. In most of those 9 sessions where I lost I was never ahead. You've either got a real bad case of selective memory or you're just fooling yourself.

Really Arc? 9 out of 10 times I play I'm ahead at some point even if its by $25 playing $5 bonus.

Kaypea if your bankroll is $200 then you're not being fair to me or yourself.

Humor me and try my experiment. Record five sessions of 100 plays in each and tell me if you're not ahead at least once in your sessions. Please no crazy high variance games.

9 of 10 times is 90%. You've been ahead in 90% of your sessions? REALLY?

Go ahead and humor us, and "record your next 5 sessions of 100 plays in each and tell us if you're not ahead at least once in your sessions."

Although, I am confused, because that would be 20% + , rather than the 90% you state.

My opinion, you have a bad case of selective memory and wishful thinking, because surely you would not intentionally try to deceive us.

And what games do you regularly play that you almost always are ahead at some point in that "session" since obviously they are not high variance? And how many plays are a session by your definition? What parameters do you set when you play?

Roadtrip please read it again:

9 out of 10 times I play I'm ahead AT SOME POINT even if its by $25 playing $5 bonus.

That's no great trick roadtrip. My point is that it is easy to be ahead. Most resist quitting when they are ahead.

But I also disagree with the concept of win goals in certain cases. I asked RS what he would do when dealt a flush with four to the royal on a $100 machine. Rob had an interesting response considering that a flush on a $100 could easily meet his $2500 win goal.

I mis-wrote. I should have inserted "at some point" into my first sentence. Everything else would remain the same, and my second sentence does say, "Go ahead and humor us, and "record your next 5 sessions of 100 plays in each and tell us if you're not ahead at least once in your sessions.."

And your last sentence..... Well, that is rather contradictory. The "SPS" at the $100 level would indicate that he is most likely losing for the session. $400 @1.00, $800 @ $2.00, $2,000 @ $5.00, & $10,000 @ $25.00 for a total of $13,200, minus his "soft profits". A flush @ $100.00 would pay what, um... errrr....
Oh, never mind. It does not matter because he just might have $13,200 in "soft profits" in his pocket.

So, are you going to respond to the rest of my message you've nit picked although you could and should have surmised the intent and meaning? Or are you going to pull your usual pretend to not read it routine?

Because you certainly don't follow logic or math. Or I don't understand how 90% can equal 20%.

You seem to be exagerating more and more when you get into these types of discussions.

Roadtrip I'm sorry but I don't follow the point you are making about 90 percent vs 20 percent. So let me refer you to an interview I did about a year ago with gaming author Vic Royer which you can find on ny site and on YouTube. Royer quoted stats that 86 percent of casino gamblers at some point are ahead during their trip to Vegas yet fewer than one percent leave Vegas with a profit. He has some other interesting stats and I copied the video on my forum page titled "So much talk about winning but how much?".

If your 20 percent figures refers to my comment that I believe the results of my "test" would be that you were up at least one out of five times then yes your 20 percent number would be correct.

But I like Royer's stat better: 86 percent are ahead at some point. And only fewer than 1 percent leave with a profit.

By the way tonight I practiced a little self discipline. I played in the midnight poker tourney at the Bicycle Casino. $100 entry. Lost and went to a $100 cash game. On my first hand I had to post $3 and since no one raised I got to see the flop. I was dealt K3 of spades and the flop came KK3 with three other players in the hand. They turned out to be aggressive players each betting and raising and I just kept calling. Yes I won as my boat held up and after the blinds came around I decided to just play my $3 and $2 blinds.

When I was the bb I was dealt AQ diamonds. No raise and the small blind calls. There were two diamonds on the flop. I checked and the SB went all in with $78. I called with my nut flush draw. No more diamonds. He turned over JK of diamonds with no pair and my AQ diamonds held up. I played the sb for $2 and left.

I covered the cost of the tourney plus left with a small profit. Ya know it's easier to do that playing live poker than it is playing video poker.

Let's see if I got this right. Money is trying to claim a person is ahead if they hit two pair on the first hand playing JOB or BP. Yup, a quarter player would be $1.25 ahead. Oh, except for the gas and/or airfare, etc. depending on where they are playing. So, oops, I guess they really aren't ahead after all. Even Singer would not be leaving after hit two pair on the first hand so I'm at a loss as to what this entire discussion is about.

Now, to be equivalent to Singer's $2500 win goal a quarter player would have to be $125 ahead. To get there they would generally need a pretty good quad right away or a run of good hands. How often does this happen? Well, I'll go out on a limb and say it's not even close to 90% (or even 86%). And, I didn't even add in transportation costs.

One of the interesting facets of this discussion is that it brings out the point about converging on the expected return. In one sense money is right. For most people playing negative games the most likely point in time for them to be ahead is very early in their play. The more they play the closer to their expected return they will tend to be. It doesn't take an infinite number of hands.

Knock Knock for Frank

Knock Knock
Who’s there?
Systhew
Systhew Who?
Systhew started this epic thread you should fix the friggin' spelling in the topic title.

Arc two questions:

1. How did you determine the correlation of $2500 for "Singer" and $125 for a 25 cent player? Where does that come from?

2. Why would a 25 cent player need to pursue a $125 win? If the quarter player started only $50 why wouldn't a $10 win goal (20 percent) be okay? How about $5 which is 10 percent?