Nearing Completion of Evaluation of RS system (not)

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Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
You must introduce the concept of "loss carry forward" or else the Tabula Rasa Fairy will bias the results.


There is no loss to carry forward. You either walk away with your 5% or use up your entire bankroll trying and don't come back until you can put together a new bankroll. Of course, at the end of the year you'll want to add up all of your winnings to brag about how much you won this year. You really should subtract out your lost bankrolls, but people rarely talk about their "net results" as that is boring accounting stuff compared to "winnings".
Kaypea I think what you are suggesting is not only a reasonable plan but an excellent plan. I have a bankroll of $2500 to play $5 Bonus poker and a 5 percent win is $125. The real challenge is do I have the discipline to "walk" after hitting something as simple as one flush or one full house in a game that gives me a $25 profit just for two pair?
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
The real challenge is do I have the discipline to "walk" after hitting something as simple as one flush or one full house in a game that gives me a $25 profit just for two pair?


If it was easy, then everyone would be doing it and the casinos would all shut down. Try it on your first few trips next year and see how it goes. One way to look at it is that you get to go home after a few small hits rather than have to stay in the loud smokey casino all night.
You are 100 percent spot on with this but the casino "machine" makes it hard for you to leave:

There is the countdown meter on your slot card, the comps for additional play, the tier scores and benefits for those who gamble more, the environment with lights and sounds, the signs flashing jackpot amounts, the lack of clocks and windows and its hard to find the exit, the seats are getting more ergonomic, the gaming areas are becoming compartments that make you walk thru a maze. And then you have to fight your own emotions: your own greed and lust for the big win.

Mr Singer figured this all out. Give him that much credit.

Singer didn't figure it out. Anyone with half a brain knows the casinos' devious methods.
Snidely I stand corrected. Singer didn't figure it out he merely applied it to video poker play. Thank you.
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Originally posted by: snidely333
Anyone with half a brain knows the casinos' devious methods.


Which is why Money is happy to have Singer around to clue him in on these things.
I'm sure you realize, and I'm sure you don't need me to remind you, all hocus-pocus aside, the more money you get in with an edge the more money you win, the less money you get in giving up an edge the less you lose. I've never met Tabula the Fairy.
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Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
I'm sure you realize, and I'm sure you don't need me to remind you, all hocus-pocus aside, the more money you get in with an edge the more money you win, the less money you get in giving up an edge the less you lose.


There are no guarantees you will win even with an edge. Admit it, dammit!

Quote

Originally posted by: oobiedoobie
I'm sure you realize, and I'm sure you don't need me to remind you, all hocus-pocus aside, the more money you get in with an edge the more money you win, the less money you get in giving up an edge the less you lose. I've never met Tabula the Fairy.


Of course you are correct oobiedoobie, but you might want to include the word "should" before comments about winning and losing. There are no guarantees in events involving randomness.

The "Tabula Rasa Fairy" was a reference to my recent article in the BJI about the magical fairy that visits you at night and wipes the slate clean so you can claim your results during your next trip to be a "win" regardless of what has happened in the past. That's her job, not her name. Her name is, "Cogtrickery". (Sister of Mnemosyne & Terpsichore)

I have yet to hear a convincing augment as to why a 1 second pause between hands is any different than a 1 year pause between trips. And notice I still used the word, "pause". Since every hand one plays in video poker is an independent random event, they are no more or less connected to each other because you walk out of the casino and sleep in your own bed between hands. To the machine a pause of any duration is still a pause. 1 seond, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 year, makes no difference to the machine. The difference is only in people's perception.

I certainly understand the cashing out, going home, recording your results (win/loss), sleeping the night, etc...or merely pausing 1 second before hitting the max-credits again FEELS different. Now try, (really hard) to understand that it isn't!

I have dubbed this phenomenon of wiping the slate clean by "quitting", so subsequent loss reductions can be heralded as "wins", "The Tabula Rasa Fairy" feel free to quote me...

ta·bu·la ra·sa
Noun:
1. An absence of preconceived ideas or predetermined goals; a clean slate.
2. The human mind, esp. at birth, viewed as having no innate ideas.

~FK

P.S. I'll be interested to see if this post ends up having been inspired by Thalia or Melpomene. From what I've learned from Clio I'd be inclined to suspect it was the latter.
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