Vegas Free-for-All - "I've lost 10 of 14 sessions ... yet, I'm still ahead for the year."

MoneyLA

Apr 5, 2011
10:45am

the title for this thread comes from an "advantage player" in video poker. I have several questions related to and about this claim-- "I've lost 10 of 14 sessions ... yet, I'm still ahead for the year."

First question: How does an advantage player know when to quit so that he can lose ten of 14 sessions and still come out ahead?

Second question: Is there a stop loss amount, or does the advantage player go bust with a fixed amount each session hoping to hit it big on a few sessions to score a yearly profit?

Third question: How many losing sessions could an advantage player have before he loses so much money that he can't turn a profit?

Fourth question: Is there no win goal, perhaps a small win goal? Even Singer with his $17-thousand or so bankroll says he will quit when he reaches a relatively small win goal of something like $2500. Shouldn't an AP be ready to cash out and quit as soon as some smaller win goal is reached? Why risk losing at all?

tomdoug

Apr 5, 2011
11:17am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
the title for this thread comes from an "advantage player" in video poker. I have several questions related to and about this claim-- "I've lost 10 of 14 sessions ... yet, I'm still ahead for the year."

First question: How does an advantage player know when to quit so that he can lose ten of 14 sessions and still come out ahead?

Second question: Is there a stop loss amount, or does the advantage player go bust with a fixed amount each session hoping to hit it big on a few sessions to score a yearly profit?

Third question: How many losing sessions could an advantage player have before he loses so much money that he can't turn a profit?

Fourth question: Is there no win goal, perhaps a small win goal? Even Singer with his $17-thousand or so bankroll says he will quit when he reaches a relatively small win goal of something like $2500. Shouldn't an AP be ready to cash out and quit as soon as some smaller win goal is reached? Why risk losing at all?

Don't you understand simple math?

MaddyHLVA

Apr 5, 2011
1:57pm

Block User

I have lost 99 out of 100 sessions for a total loss of 100k, yet the one session I won; I hit the jackpot for

200,000- So Im now up 100k yet have lost 99% of my session!!! I dont get how I can be up MoneyLA please

help

MoneyLA

Apr 5, 2011
2:51pm

Block User

Maddy, good for you. Now do you attribute your profit to luck or to advantage play?

KayPea

Apr 5, 2011
8:22pm

Block User

I have several questions related to running a business -- "I've lost money 10 of 14 weeks ... yet, I'm still ahead for the year."

First question: How does a businessman know when to quit so that he can lose ten of 14 weeks and still come out ahead?

Second question: Is there a stop loss amount, or does the businessman go bust with a fixed amount each week hoping to hit it big on a few weeks to score a yearly profit?

Third question: How many losing weeks could a businessman have before he loses so much money that he can't turn a profit?

Fourth question: Is there no sales goal, perhaps a small sales goal? Even Donald Trump with his $17-thousand or so bankroll says he will quit when he reaches a relatively small sales goal of something like $2500. Shouldn't a businessman be ready to cash out and quit as soon as some smaller sales goal is reached? Why risk losing at all?

arcimedes

Apr 5, 2011
9:43pm

Block User

Quote

There is no time to quit. Advantage players realize that every hand is an independent event and it matters not whether I play one more hand today or wait until another time. Hence, I play about the same amount of hands every time I play independent of my results that day.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Second question: Is there a stop loss amount, or does the advantage player go bust with a fixed amount each session hoping to hit it big on a few sessions to score a yearly profit?

There is no stop loss although once in a great while I lose all the money I bring with me before I would normally leave. I think this has happened twice in the last 3 years for example.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Third question: How many losing sessions could an advantage player have before he loses so much money that he can't turn a profit?

A year is basically one long session. The entire concept of sessions is fairly meaningless to an advantage player. I only quoted these numbers to show VP is generally a lot of losing with a few big wins or hot streaks inbetween. Any player can have a long losing streak, that is why bankroll is important.

Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Fourth question: Is there no win goal, perhaps a small win goal? Even Singer with his $17-thousand or so bankroll says he will quit when he reaches a relatively small win goal of something like $2500. Shouldn't an AP be ready to cash out and quit as soon as some smaller win goal is reached? Why risk losing at all?

There is no win goal. Every hand I play on a positive return game I have an advantage. Some times if I win early in a session I will lose it all, sometimes I will win more. Over time, however, I will win more simply because I have the advantage. The situation is no different after a big win than it is on the first hand of the day. How difficult is that to understand.

PS. I loved Kaypea's response. It shows how silly these questions really are. If one is in business to make money do they quit in the middle of the day? Sounds silly when you look at it from that perspective.

Janis Meyer

Apr 6, 2011
1:07am

Block User

Money

I know one motivation for this thread is a question in you mind about arci. Figure it out. He plays in a state that has a low that no vp can pay over 98% but he has an advantage. He has found 2 machines that were grandfathered in at +ev and those machines are being used every time he goes but he has an advantage. No matter what you ask him he is going to have an advantage. You know why? Because he is full of shit.

CANADIANEH

Apr 6, 2011
1:20am

Block User

PS. I loved Kaypea's response. It shows how silly these questions really are. If one is in business to make money do they quit in the middle of the day? Sounds silly when you look at it from that perspective.

RIGHT ON - I completely agree. Silly questions - IMO - waste of time answering them.... move on...

MoneyLA

Apr 6, 2011
3:14am

Block User

Kaypea, nice argumentative approach. Except there is a big difference between business and gambling.

Arc, thanks for the responses.

snidely333

Apr 6, 2011
3:24am

Block User

Money, advantage play follows a business model. You have risk and expected return on your investment just like a business.

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