"I've lost 10 of 14 sessions ... yet, I'm still ahead for the year."

You stay in business if you believe that your business model will generate a profit or even just break even and pay all your bills. The AP believes that.

Another analogy for you. You play poker. You're at a table with full of weak players. You're a favorite to win, right? There is no guarantee but you should be able to generate a profit at the table. Now, don't use the word "always". The proper thinking is that over time you will come out ahead at the poker table. Just like over time an AP will come out ahead at VP. Therefore it makes sense to stay in business and continue to play.

sorry snidely, I dont buy it. "over time" to me is a meaningless concept when you gamble.

...perhaps that's due to how you gamble.

I've seen you state that you've never had a winning year. I've had quite a few.

Remember Bob, when you have a winning year you have to pay your taxes.

Do they really say that?

I'm not sure of the variations in video poker, but I can say with certainty that the "long run" in some games is very very long and that some players will NEVER hit the theoretical long run.

Though its a -ev game, craps is a really really good example, due to the tremendous variance. Say you play perfect pass line + odds. On 10K bet, $25 at a time on pass line + odds, you should come out of it with ~$9500-9900 depending on what your odds bets are. However, due to the variance of craps, I'm guessing some people will lose thousands and other will win.

In short, I do think that advantage video poker players who don't put in the time(esp those with arbitrary stop win limits) will not truly see the "long run" and as such cannot possibly say they will always make a profit.

And btw, making a profit on an individual session, in the context of this discussion, is utterly meaningless.

Speck, when I said "the advantage players maintain they can always make a profit in video poker" it refers to their long term play and not to any individual session. And it was that claim that was the genesis of this thread: "I've lost 10 of 14 sessions... yet, I'm still ahead for the year." Of course the entire thrust of advantage play is that if you follow the principles of it you will be a long term, profitable player. But no one claims they can win every session.

And regarding craps: I think it is just about impossible to be a long term winner in craps because craps is a negative expectation game-- period.

At least in video poker you have a chance because IN THEORY there can be a positive expectation in video poker. Yes, even I concede that.

Good point. If an AP is always turning a profit as they claim, why is Dancer hocking his goods at every turn for $125.00. But wait, Theres more!
It's all about selling books and dvds. Don't think for one minute that Arc isn't in on it and getting a cut of sales for touting AP.
Chew on that for a while.

Nonsense. There is no always, anywhere. Bob Dancer wrote a column about his loss at the recent Land Rover promo. You've just cited a statement about losing 10 of 14 sessions.

Are you a heavy drinker, by any chance? Because you really do have serious trouble apprehending things. Do you understand that at any game, e.g. football, a team can be ahead, then be behind, then be ahead again, all during the same game? Do you understand that VP players are playing against the house, and the house wouldn't offer a game it couldn't win?

Are you possibly just averse to basic facts?

Which demonstrates my point about you not understanding VP play. The term "over time" is what smooths out the bumps of the individual sessions. Maybe an analogy ... a good baseball team. During a season they may have a some losing streaks but at the end of the year they are on top. They are on top because they have a skill advantage over the competition. A VP player has a mathematical advantage but it works out the same.

No one gets overly excited if the NYY lose a game or two because they are always winners "over time". A good VP player with a nice advantage doesn't worry about a few session losses either.

Let me see if I can explain some simple logic here. Let's say Dancer is making $100K/year playing VP. He figures out he can also make $100K/year doing classes, selling strategies, books, etc. Why would he not do it? Why does Tiger Woods and virtually all sports names do endorsements?

It's quite simple, there's MORE money to be made. Why not.

As for myself I have provided some non-standard strategies to various players over the years. Some just said thank you, others gave me some pointers to good plays, and some gave me a little money. I can count the number of ones that gave me money on 3 fingers. Chew on that for awhile.