"I've lost 10 of 14 sessions ... yet, I'm still ahead for the year."

No. over time is a mathematical concept that is applied to situations where we can know or estimate the defining equation. Based on the game and pay table, we know the equation for the VP game played.

Over time, the observed results will approach the theoretical result.

Over time, we die.

(apologies to JM Keynes...Never mind...he's dead)

Not Money. He doesnt believe in the long run, therefore he will not die. Ot, at least can not be convinced that it will happen.

Bringing this back to the business analogy, a restaurant wil have loosing days during the week and then make enough on the weekend to get back in the black. Retailers wil struggle all year waiting until the holiday season to turn a profit. The AP will work through 39,999 hands before hitting the royal on the 40,000.

Money, you see the AP as a gambler, and that is holding you back from understanding the rest. I said before that the AP is less of a gambler than the restaurant owner. The restaurant owner is hoping that the weekend business will make up for a lousy week. A cold rainy weekend means more looses. A beautiful spring day wil pack your patio. A new place opening across the street with free beer will turn your parking lot into overflow parking for them. For the restaurant owner it is a gamble that the weather wil be good, the competition will be bad, and the people will come.

The AP knows that the royal will come eventually. It will show up once every 40K hands. Yes, there is a chance that it might not show up for 80K or even 120K hands. It might not show up for 400K hands. But a royal not showing up for 400K hands has the same probability as flipping a coin 10 times and getting heads every time. You can calculate that probability and see that it is not very likely. The universe will correct itself. If you go 120K hands without a royal then by the time you get to 400K hands you will be back close to your 10 royals. It is not gambling, it is just enduring the short term randomness waiting for the long term gain. Just like the retailer enduring losses all year while waiting for Christmas.

The difference is that the retailer is gambling that the holiday season will be profitable without a recession, competition, or fickle customers that jump from one hot trend to the next. The AP knows with mathematical certainty that his business will generate the projected revenue. The retailer is the gambler, not the AP.

Thank you all for your comments and yes I understand (really, I do) about your long term theory and how over the long term there will be even distributions of results, etc. but I still am not going to "invest my money" in this. In other words, I'm going to play VP as a sport, for recreation, but will never make it a business because the business model is just not reliable.

Yes, over the long term an AP VP player will have his ups and downs and playing a +EV machine with appropriate comps and cash back may give him a long term positive result. And if that's you, good for you. And may the Force be with you.

But I won't buy it.

MrMarcus, I think you like to jump on me whenver you get the chance. If you happened to read my next post you would see that I explained more clearly my comment and I was only referring to the long term play of AP VP guys.

Arc, thanks for your information about how you play and best of luck to you.
Snidely and Kaypea, yes I do follow the belief that over the long term the RNG will give you what it should and while I believe in the long run, I also now that amazing things can happen in the short run... you can hit multiple royals in a short time, or you can have a cold streak that will make you wish you never saw a VP machine in your life.

And Kaypea, in my business I know that I get most of my revenue in the second half of each month, but with an RNG I dont know when the big hands will come. Stop trying to put VP on the same level as running a business. In my business if a big sale is equivalent to a royal, I can't wait for a royal after 400,000 hands-- I need the royal in business to come when I expect it to come (if you understand the concept).

I dont knock or criticize the principles of AP. They make sense. But Im not quitting my day job and Im realistic enough to know that even when you make the correct play hand after hand and you play the right paytables and you get the right cashback and comps that the little RNG just might not cooperate with you enough to make you a winner. But on the other hand it just might surprise you and make you a big winner. And that, my friends, is gambling. It is not business. It's gambling.

That 400,000 hands may represent just a month of activity to the AP, and they may not get paid until the last part of the month, either. But with the AP there is only a 1 in 500 chance that they won't get paid this month. I've worked in small companies where if I didn't get the product out the door by the end of the month, there would be no money for payroll next month, so I understand the concept very well. I could have slept better knowing that an RNG had a 1 in 500 chance of letting me down than having to worry about employees that can't get along or call in sick.

I equate the AP with running a business because that is their business. They are like an independent contractor and that is their day job or maybe a second job. They can calculate the precise odds of success or failure for every decision they make rather than trusting their gut and experience. You are more comfortable trusting your gut. They are more comfortable trusting their calculator. I'm not saying either is more correct than the other.

There thousands if not millions of people with the ability to fully understand AP, myself included, and yet only a relative handful of people are AP.

Too much risk for me. It doesn't fit my personality.

I understand it but I don't do it.

Being an "AP" @ VP is a lot of work. One must learn perfect strategy for a variety of pay tables and games, than time spent scouting for the best CB, promos, contests, etc to calculate if something is playable. Long hours at the machines, and must be at the top of their game, playing mistake free.

I consider myself an "AP", yet do not play VP very often. But I do "work" at poker, spending time scouting rooms and promotions, and deciding when and where to play. Than on arrival scouting tables and games to pick the one or two I think would be best. Between "cash back" for live play, and poker room promotions, I'm able to calculate a per hour figure based on expectation without considering my potential win rate.

I base my choices strictly on promotions & rewards to determine where I'll play, than play. Of course, I expect to win, but it's the rewards and promotions which may total up to $8.00 - $12.00+ per hour +EV that influences my decision. That money is what I consider I am paid to play. If I only break even at the table, I'll still earn that. LONG TERM. I may go a month or more without hitting a promo. Than hit multiple times in one day. It's happened plenty of times to me. :::shrug:::

I don't calculate anything for the potential "Bad Beat Jackpot" which is usually well over $100K. The odds on that are 2.6 million +, and although I've possibly played than many hands lifetime, I don't "expect" to hit one. I also do not calculate casino drawings, although I've won a few of those. Found money. :::shrug:::

I spend about 15 - 30 minutes per day telephoning each poker room for info. Plus another couple hours per month marking my master calendar for promotions, etc. I consider it a job. My "guarantee" is really sub minimal wage. I average must better than that.

But, I also do not get to "work" as many hours as I would like, and the times I do work are "bad", since promotions are designed to get people to play when the rooms are usually slow.

Still, I do like it.

Snidely well said. I understand it also but because I also understand the risk I don't even try it. It all goes back to hearing dancer say he plays triple line $25 per coin DW to win $250000 per year. That $375 push of the button on a strategy with at best a 2 percent advantage isn't my idea of "advantage anything.".

What you are talking about is getting out of your comfort zone. That is also what snidely mentioned. That has nothing to do with the reality of advantage play. I have a feeling you like to think of yourself as a high roller. When you see someone else playing at much higher stakes than you would consider, you feel like that can't be good. Well, it can be for that player if it is within their comfort zone.

I'm sure most gamblers would consider $5 DDB to be out of their comfort zone. Yet, you play it without any expectation of making money.

BTW, if a 2% advantage was available at any casino on $25 triple play, the casino would go out of business in a few weeks. Guess who would be making a fortune.

Arc, where did this come from? does it matter to you if I play $5 DDB? Does it matter to you if I am a high roller or not? Never was my play level or financial status or betting patterns mentioned before in this discussion. Why are you raising it now?