"Winning"???

Just got back.

Is the Alex Lifeson in this thread actually the real one from RUSH? It is my favorite band of all time. Just wondering.

~FK

A few times when "gaming" on slots I have hit various jackpots ($1200) being the largest. I tell the wife who is usually playing BJ that I hit a $100 jackpot or whatever it is. But, I ALWAYS tell her that I deposited a hundred and cashed out at $125 or what ever it is.
It is very easy to "tell yourself" that you are ahead because you have made a "decent hit"! The real reality comes when you add up what is in your wallet upon exiting the casino! Typically I have lost alittle more than I thought. The "accounting" at the end of the night tells the true story.

Welcome back.

Let me expand on this idea. True, a single touchdown does not make you a winner. But you can win that game, but still be behind for the season. In football, and most sports, the teams with the best records for the season go on to play each other post season for the best of the best at which there is one overall winner. Next year everyone starts at zero and plays again.

Baseball takes it even further where two teams will meet for a series of a few games. You can have a winner for that series separate from the division winner. You can win your division, but lose world series. There are many levels of winning for the year. And then you start over again next season with all scores reset to zero.

The recreational gambler has sessions and trips that are analogous to the baseball series and season. A recreational gambler may win a session but be behind for the trip. A recreational gambler may have a winning or losing trip, but just like the sporting season, all scores reset to zero for the next trip.

There is no concept in sports for wins or loses from last year to carry over to this year. Likewise for the recreational gambler, there is no reason to have lifetime totals. If the Braves beat the Mets 10-2 in one game, the Braves do not start off with an 8 run lead in the next game. Both teams start off at 0 again. If a recreational gambler loses $200 in one session, and wins $100 in the next session, the overall score is 1 win and 1 loss. The dollar value of the wins/loses are no more important to the recreational gambler than the number of runs in a baseball game. Let me restate that. The financial results are not important to the recreational gambler. It is a means to keep score. If I hit megabucks I may revise my opinion on the financial results being meaningless.

I do not have personal lifetime totals. I only started keeping detail records ten years ago, so that is as far as I can go. Until this thread came up I never even thought about running a report to show totals beyond a single trip. Although I was not surprised to find that I am behind over those ten years, I was pleased to find that my average loss per session was $20. I can not think of a more economical way to go out for an afternoon or evening of fun and drinks for only $20.

To summarize, gambling is like a sporting event to the recreational gambler. We only care if we are winning the current game, series, or season. The score resets to zero the next time we meet on the field.

You make a very good point. And I believe you are absolutely correct. Recreational gamblers do indeed apply spots like logic to their all their gambling and trips, complete with regular result resets and starting over with clean slates as often as possible. I had not seen the connection until you mentioned it.

Here's the thing:
Runs earned in baseball and touchdowns made during a football game are somewhat related to each other because the game has a defined beginning and end, and the tallied totals at game's end determine who wins. Also, sports is not random and based on a cycling clock to generate the seed number which is passed to a randomizing algorithm. VP is.

Video Poker and Slot play is a series of independent random events with no two or more trials being any more or any less related to each other because of when they occurred. People record "today's results" for today because they occurred in a row. When dealing with random events "in a row" has no meaning beyond the artificial meaning people ascribe to it. Video Poker play has no beginning, or end, since random events are not related to each other even if the occur sequentially. You might just as well keep records of only your odd or even numbered hands and reset the tally after each bowel movement.

This is almost impossible for people with linear minds to comprehend.

Certainty, you are welcome to tally together the results of a particular day or trip as long as you understand it is all smoke and mirrors. A convenient illusion, which is good for tax filling, but serves no other purpose beyond that other than to conceal the truth.

You said, "To summarize, gambling is like a sporting event to the recreational gambler."

I have little doubt of that, the problem is that gambling is actually nothing like a sporting event in anyway, and treating it as though it was can be ill advised.

Try to remember back to what your high-school statistics teacher said about random sampling. The larger the sample the better. Small sample sizes tell you nothing other than what you want to hear. Today's play is neither a win or a loss, it is a random sample set within a larger whole.

Look I completely get that people think this way because it is normal, natural and more fun than thinking logically. What I need you to understand is that what might be a small component in an innocent pastime FOR YOU, is the crux of a crippling addiction FOR OTHERS.

Convincing themselves that loss reductions are really "wins" is considered to be one of the top three risk factors for pathological gambling. If I only succeed in getting across one point it is this: The medical community (not me) is saying this can be really dangerous thinking for some people.

Current studies find this cognitive distortion in nearly 100% of pathological gamblers. What does that tell us???

It doesn't tell us that if you think this way you will develop gambling problems (no base rate information available).

However one conclusion is that if you don't have this cognitive distortion, your chances of developing gambling problems drops to near zero.

That's enough for me to feel quite justified in championing the cause of lifetime record keeping as the only way to go. Is that less fun? YES! That's the point. If clear thought and knowledge of reality ruins the fun in something, it was never really worthwhile in the first place.

~FK

Please Note: Nothing in this thread posted by me is talking about people who knowingly lose small amounts of money gambling for recreational purposes...and chalk it up to a vacation or entertainment expense.

This is specifically for people that convince themselves they are "winning" when they are in fact down money overall in casinos.

If you know you are losing and don't sugar coat loss reductions as wins. Nothing here applies to you.

Baseball has several innings. Each inning is an independent trial. You start of with nobody on base and no outs. At the end of each inning each team did or did not score any points. The next inning starts over. At the end of a preset number of these independent trials, based upon total points accumulated, you declare a winner (or you add on innings until you have a winner).

I play VP like a baseball game. I'll play 5 innings. For each inning I'll start by inserting a $20 bill into the machine. I'll play until I hit double (or more) or nothing. Then I cash out (hopefully) and start the next inning. At the end of 5 innings I quit. If my tickets total more than $100, then I won. After dinner, I may play the second game of a double header. Does it make any sense to play this way? Not really, but I find it fun, plus it is a way for me to arbitrarily define the beginning and ending of a game.

Another way I define a win is if I can spend X hours in a casino, while having Y drinks, and it ends up costing me less than the same amout of time+drinks in a pub. So, yes, I can walk out with $20 less in my pocket and think I'm a winner because I saved $30 over what would have been a $50 bar tab down at the pub. Is that cognitive distortion or smart shopping?

I'll answer your last question first: If you succeeded in reducing your bar tab by getting free drinks gambling briefly, that would be smart shopping...absolutely.

Your reference to baseball innings being independent trials seems to belie your knowledge of statistics. Baseball is not a random event and cannot have independent trials per-say. One can randomly sample baseball results, but that isn't the same thing as the pseudo-randomness generated by RNGs in VP. In VP each individual hand is independent and random, and any assortment of multiple hands is a random sample of the entire data set. They are not close to being comparable or similar, and the math to describe each is very different. Surely you understand that games involving people are not "random"?

Your statement, "a way for me to arbitrarily define the beginning and ending of a game" would lead me to believe you have a good handle on just how arbitrary any tally of gambling results that includes some but rejects others really is. Good job...and keep up the good work.

Just don't think that everyone is as realistic as you are, and don't promote a dangerous way of thinking simply because it is not a problem for you.

It seems like every time I bring up this subject, people come out of the woodwork to proudly state how this doesn't apply to them. Never said it did. No need to be defensive. The discussion was supposed to be for the people it does apply to. I find it odd that they are conspicuous by their absence.

Even if this is not a problem for YOU, can you at least see how it could be an issue for others???

~FK

So, lets say you spent $1000 on a SuperBowl ticket. At halftime they call out your seat number and you were randomly selected to get a prize of $200. Did you win $200 or did you lose $800?
Perhaps the correct phrase is to say you "came home" with $200.

Some people set aside $100 for a spa treatment. Other people set aside $100 for video poker. In either case the expectation should be to bring home zero dollars of that money...but with gambling there is a chance you will in fact bring home some of that money - or more. As long as you obey the fundamental rule of gambling you are ok - never bet money you cant afford to lose in its entirety.

I have a friend that gambles quite frequently.He does manage to get a "nice" win of say $500 or more and then tells everyone he knows that he won that amount.I have had people comment that "Jack",not his real name, always wins.
It is kinda fun to note that alot of people can't wait to tell you about their "win",but NEVER tell you that they lost $600 or a grand. Bob

Yes good example. Thank you!

And even scarier, some may not even remember their losses and truly believe that they are winning or that momentary loss reductions are the same as profit. It is human nature to filter our memories and hold on to only that which stands out.

As so many in this thread have pointed out, for some this is deliberate and harmless. It is not for them that I started this thread.