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Originally posted by: arshaleign
This challenge would have been a smart advantage play for Dan and a stupid one for Singer, but it wouldn't have proved a thing, because the 30 hour sample size was so small.
Making some assumptions - 18,000 hands of NSU with Singer's return in the range of a horrible 98% return - Singer's EV would be an 1,800 coin loss but one standard deviation is almost double that. So Singer would still have had about a one in three chance of coming out positive.
Originally posted by: arshaleign
This challenge would have been a smart advantage play for Dan and a stupid one for Singer, but it wouldn't have proved a thing, because the 30 hour sample size was so small.
Making some assumptions - 18,000 hands of NSU with Singer's return in the range of a horrible 98% return - Singer's EV would be an 1,800 coin loss but one standard deviation is almost double that. So Singer would still have had about a one in three chance of coming out positive.
You're spot on correct. This is exactly the conclusion that I came to. The 30 hours is too small a sample size. My primary objective was to discredit his system. I make a typo error and said 30 hours and meant 300. In the end, I figured if I opened my big mouth I'd live with it. I still had a 2/3rd's chance of winning and it would only cost me even money if I lost....in itself the best advantage play that I've had in a while.
It seems that he's posturing on this so instead of wasting any more time, I further clarified what I thought would make sense. If he's not prepared to accept it, both critics and followers of his can come to their own conclusion.
As I see it, he claims that he's a 80-85% favorite walking in to the casino. Why would he not take this advantage to win both casino money and MY money at the same time? I don't know about you but I don't know many (any) people who earn $1k/hr. It's unlikely that this is too paultry an amount, would you agree?
I know this sounds like BS but I'm not doing this to get into a pissing match with him. If any of his followers wanted a similar deal, I'd do this same thing in a heartbeat. It's just simply a good bet. Being Singer, it just becomes icing on the cake.
I continue to ask if one was able to go into a casino and walk out with a minimum of $2,500 80-85% of the time as he claims, how often would YOU do it? I'm thinking that anyone in this country shy of Warren Buffett or Bill Gates would be all over it. There'd be a line at the front door of every casino with standing room only trying to get in. It's simply not believable.
Anyway, it seems that he's posted something yet again. I don't want to continue with banter....let's either agree this thing or move on.
Dan