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Originally posted by: arcimedes
The reason Singer claims he has a 80% chance of winning is due to the Martingale like progressive system he uses. If he plays all 5 levels then he does have an 80% chance of winning any single session. However, when you factor in 30K hands that means he will need to play 5-10 sessions. Since his losses at 5 levels will likely be in the $40-50K range just one loss can lead to losing overall. He would need to win just about every session to come out ahead unless he hits a big winner at the top two levels.
Originally posted by: arcimedes
The reason Singer claims he has a 80% chance of winning is due to the Martingale like progressive system he uses. If he plays all 5 levels then he does have an 80% chance of winning any single session. However, when you factor in 30K hands that means he will need to play 5-10 sessions. Since his losses at 5 levels will likely be in the $40-50K range just one loss can lead to losing overall. He would need to win just about every session to come out ahead unless he hits a big winner at the top two levels.
Arci, I had a loose idea of his "system" which is why I wasn't interested in doing this on a simulator. If he doesn't win early, he needs to test his "psychological bankroll" to see if he can stomach playing $500/push to dig out of hole. If you're not playing with real money, it's easy to keep pushing up the denom until you hit on a winner. With real money it's a double whammy...you lose to both me and the casino.
I haven't vascilated on my offer and simply outlined the terms. It's in his court to decide if he wants to do this or not and if he does pass, people can draw their own conclusions as to why.
Dan