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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Arc, we can go around and around on this forever. My feeling is that there is no guarantee youre going to win if you play by the correct strategy. You SHOULD play the correct strategy, but it doesnt guarantee you will win. And I know you agree with that.
I dont know all about Singer. The way I understand Singer is that he also follows the math, but he is willing to take a chance to score a big enough win that he meets his win goal and stops playing. He doesnt do it ALL the time. He makes his "special plays" sometimes.
I think there is no way to predict video poker over the long term. you seem to rely on the "math" which says over xxxx number of hands, this should happen.
I dont see that. Hell, Ive played over 81,000 hands of VP just this year without a royal. The "math" says I should have had at least one.
You said youve been dealt 4 to the royal more than 200 times without getting the royal card on the draw. the "math" says you should draw the royal card one out of 47 times.
the "variance" of the math means you could get lucky and hit back to back royals, or draw the royal card 47/47 times.
but thats the gamble. and that's why I can't bank on the math coming through for me in the long term or the short term. And so I play VP hoping for the best and accepting that it is a gamble.
And with that said, let me add -- AND THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT -- we should follow the best plays which are based on the math, but following the math does not guarantee a win.
Singer isnt selling a con. He's accepting that video poker is a gamble and he is taking a chance within that gamble. what is a "con" is trying to tell someone that they can beat the casino.
Singer doesnt try to beat the casino. He sets a win goal and leaves.
Sorry Money, you once again are completely confused. You use the word guarantee like it's important and I've explained the math to you many times. Just because you choose to ignore it does not change the facts.
Of course nothing is "guaranteed" ... so what? It's not "guaranteed" you will wake up tomorrow. Does that mean you should do go out and drive 200 mph down the freeway today? That is basically what you are saying. Since nothing is absolutely guaranteed then why not do something crazy?
BTW, I did hit on back-back 4RF after my 208 straight misses. They were about 2 hours apart. And, the math DOES NOT say you should hit once in every 47 tries like clockwork. That is pure nonsense. In fact, if one did that the machines would not be random. Your use of illogical examples only demonstrates you still can't accept the reality of randomness. Good luck with that.
Finally, your description of Singer is amazingly naive. You clearly know nothing of his continual lies. He must sit back and laugh at how gullible you are.
