Rob Singer accepts the challenge.

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Originally posted by: BAGIANT
I just don't see what this "contest" will prove one way or the other. If Rob uses his "regular" system, he will progress upwards until his 30 hours run out. He will hope to hit 4 Aces w/kicker or a royal somewhere along the line. If it comes early, he will hope to hang on until 30 hours is completed. If he hits them late, then he will get a boxcar payout, and depending how much he's stuck, will either makes him a winner or not. But I don't see what it will prove one way or the other. Anyone with a sizeable bankroll could attempt the same thing with varied results.


As I stated earlier Singer will run through 5-10 different progressions in 30 hours depending on how fast he plays. If he decides to play through 6 levels as he has claimed, that means he's risking up to $57,500 on each one. If he lost two sessions he would need to make up between $60 - $100K in losses in his winning sessions. That would require several lucky hits at high denominations since his average win is more likely to be $6-7K or less.

What will the contest prove? Not much. We already know what the expectation will be but the variance is so high that the range of highly possible results is enormous.

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Originally posted by: snidely333
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Unfortunately, even IF the challenge takes place, I'm afraid NO ONE will be convinced. Someone is going to say the "sample was too small" or someone will say "he was lucky" or "he was unlucky."

Gosh, Arc, wasn't it you who said that it is impossible to play "the long term"? Or, didnt you say something like that?

So is 30-thou hands fair to Singer or fair to Dan? Would 300-thousand hands be fair? Would one million hands be fair?


What is there to be convinced of?


Once again, Snidely is smarter than the average bear, poster, LVA participant.

No one has to be confinced of anything. A bet has been made, and thats the only thing at stake here. You can still believe or disbelieve in Singer's system after the bet is resolved.
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Originally posted by: friedmush
I would like to offer to handle the $600,000 escrow account for a mere $9,000 combined. Consider this a charitable "special play" offer. What can I say? I am feeling charitable.


Mush, I'll do it for $1k. That will cover airfare and hotel stay while I'm in Vegas.
So my question now is when is Singer coming back from Hawaii ? This thread got quiet. Funny how since he is supposedly on vacation tomdoug disappeared too.

Funny how that works.

Singer did make a counter offer on the escrow deal. there was no response to what Singer last proposed.
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Originally posted by: loydthelover
So my question now is when is Singer coming back from Hawaii ? This thread got quiet. Funny how since he is supposedly on vacation tomdoug disappeared too.

Funny how that works.

Isn't it amazing that Hawaii is cut off from the rest of the world. No internet service at all, apparently.

And, I believe Singer has been caught lying about his "vacations" in the past right here in LVA.
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Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Singer did make a counter offer on the escrow deal. there was no response to what Singer last proposed.


To be honest, I didn't even read his "counteroffer" as in my mind, this isn't a negotiation.

I've outlined the terms in bullet point form in an effort to cut to the chase. Understand that I've not twisted, altered, or waivered from the original terms. I've conceded to a venue choice (Vegas or Laughlin) and offered to post up $30K as escrow funds.

If all of this wasn't acceptable from the onset, Singer shouldn't have accepted this "challenge".

Either way, the results of this will not validate or discredit his system....the sample size is too small. I knew this from the onset. This is about what I perceive to be as getting the best of it. My theo advantage is greater than the risk so it's a good gamble or me. I never said that I would definitely win (unlike Singer who seems to think so) but that I have a large advantage.

In the event this doesn't happen, people can come to their own conclusion as to why. Here's my "closing arguments" on this....Singer has repeatedly claimed that he can beat any machine and in fact has alluded to a bad paytable not being a deterrent to success for him. While most people accept that on any given day, anything can happen but over the course of time (a definition left for another time), the poor paytable will hurt the player. If you don't believe this, why do casinos continually "downgrade" pay schedules on video poker machines? Like it or not, over time, the math does prevail.

I called BS on Singer. I don't think he, his system or his special plays can alter the long term math. As a subset of this, I call him out indirectly and he accepts. I offer to post a $30K prize pool for what amounts to 30 hours of work by him. Think about it....he in effect claims that a video poker machine is an ATM and he has the casino's PIN #. I'm offering the cherry on top....win the casino's money and mine at the same time. If what he says is honest, correct and realistic, who wouldn't want to take advantage of making an additional $1K/hr. over and above what he's going to haul out of the casino?

This was never done to draw attention to him; especially not on this board. I'm done talking about it. I don't care if he opts to twist this in any way....I'm not going to get into a war of words with him. Once again, if it doesn't happen, people can review the facts and decide for themselves as to why.

I'm here and the offer still stands. Ball is in his court as it has been from the onset.

Dan
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Originally posted by: fedomalley
Either way, the results of this will not validate or discredit his system.


While this is true, nothing is needed to discredit his system. It is discredited by simple math.

The only thing on trial here is Singer himself. If he refuses he will end up being discredited personally because of his fake attempt to claim he accepted the challenge.

I have one question about the proposed 30K escrow. In the very unlikely event that Singer gets on the $100 machine and hits the Royal and finishes the 15,000 hands up a couple of hundred thousand does Dan owe a matching amount (over and above the escrow) or is the escrow a cap on the bet?
Dan wrote: "Singer has repeatedly claimed that he can beat any machine and in fact has alluded to a bad paytable not being a deterrent to success for him." I don't think that is entirely correct. Singer does not claim to beat the machine. Singer claims that he can -- with his system -- reach a win goal and then leave the casino.

Arc wrote: "nothing is needed to discredit his system. It is discredited by simple math." Arc, you are correct that the math says that Singer's "special plays" are wrong... they are wrong because the math says that in the long run the "special plays" will return fewer coins per bet. But Singer says he is not playing for the long term. I like his example about 7/5 Bonus Poker-- he says when he has a full house with three aces he will hold only the aces. The "math" says that is wrong. But Singer would rather use those three aces for a shot at quad aces. BUT Singer also says in 8/5 Bonus he would HOLD THE FULL HOUSE. His different play for 7/5 is because of the value of the full house. The "math" says he's wrong, but if he gets the quad aces he is that much closer to his win goal, or maybe surpasses it.
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