I was asked by a member to explain my thoughts on the market both where we have been and where we are currently. Below was my response and I decided to post it here for others to read as well as I thought it my be helpful for others trying to research the Las Vegas real estate market. I thought it would be helpful to recap and summarize someof the milestones into one thread. Please feel free to comment or discuss anything Las Vegas real estate related. Thanks!
"In regard to the Las Vegas market, we have stabilized over the past 6 months. To give you a quick recap of inventory here are some important milestones:
-mid 2011- we had almost 15,000 available homes for sale and we were in a strong buyers market. Low balls were still being accepted and values were flat. We had reach home values of the early 1990's.
-Oct 2011- Nevada AB284 was passed in attempts to protect consumers from the fraudulent foreclosures associated with the "Robo-signing" fiasco. For many reasons this caused banks to stop foreclosing. We saw a 95% decrease in available REO's hitting the market each month. From 5,000 a month to 500 a month. As you can imaging this drastically affected the supply side of the market causing prices to begin to increase.
-Jan 2012- after AB284 causing prices to increase and supply to decrease hedge funds and mom and pop investors started coming out of the wood work and buying properties up like hot cakes. With this huge increase in demand combined with the drastic drop in inventory levels appreciation started to sky rocket, bidding wars were beginning to drive prices up and sell for above appraisal value.
-December 2012- people were expecting the annual holiday slowdown in the market but were surprised when December sales soared and continued to drive up prices.
-Q1 and Q2 of 2013- bidding wars were still in full swing (sometimes seeing 20-30 offers on a property.) Inventory levels were are insane lows of only about 3,000 available listings. Appreciation was still soaring around 25%-30%. We were still in a very strong seller's market. Homes selling on average of about 10%-15% above appraisal value. Cash investors were driving this demand and often times out bidding owner occupants that did not have the extra cash to be competitive.
-Summer of 2013- Inventory began to increase, bidding wars were still around but seemed to be not as intense or as frequent. I attribute the increase of inventory to the fact that investors had either already jumped back into the market and were now in the "hold" phase of their buy and hold strategy, as well as many hedge funds and investors had moved their focus of acquisition to other parts of the country where they could still get higher cap rates. The days of 10-12% cap rates of 2009-2011 were gone due to increase property values on rentals that maintained the same rental rate. So basically you are paying more for something but renting it for the same rate.
-Q3 and Q4 of 2013- Inventory was surging week after week and there was a lot of talk about the market switching from a seller's market to a buyer's market in Q1 of 2014. Since the inventory was already increasing (April 2013 to November the inventory almost tripled) we were expecting the Holiday season to really send a spike of inventory and throw us into a buyer's market Q1 2014. To our surprise December actually decreased in inventory. This prevented us from going into a buyer's market and killing the appreciation of recent years.
-Since December 2013 to present- we have maintained an over all inventory level only fluctuating by a few hundred homes up and down. This tell me that the homes are moving about he same pace they are hitting the market. We were not in a healthy market in 2011 with 15,000 homes for sale. We were not in a healthy market with 3,000 homes for sale. It is not healthy or sustainable to have 30% appreciation. No market can maintain that long term. Now that we have balanced out around 8,000 (This includes SFR, townhomes, and condos for all of the Vegas Valley as well as Boulder City which is just outside of Henderson) I am expecting to see a healthy 10-15% appreciation this year. I do not see us going into a buyer's market yet. Investors can still get 4-5% cap rates, flippers can still find good deals now that inventory has risen, and the owner occupant that was getting out bid all the time is now driving the demand side of the market. I would also like to mention that I am not expecting a huge crash like the bubble due to the fact so many of these investment properties were bought with cash rather than leveraging with financing like the in the bubble.
-Present- The good listings that are priced right still sell within a week and may have 2 or 3 offers. Homes are selling for appraisal value or slightly below. If you want 80% of FMV than you need to think outside the box to find deals. It will be very difficult to find 80% of FMV on the MLS right now.
I hope this is helpful and I look forward to doing business with you."
"In regard to the Las Vegas market, we have stabilized over the past 6 months. To give you a quick recap of inventory here are some important milestones:
-mid 2011- we had almost 15,000 available homes for sale and we were in a strong buyers market. Low balls were still being accepted and values were flat. We had reach home values of the early 1990's.
-Oct 2011- Nevada AB284 was passed in attempts to protect consumers from the fraudulent foreclosures associated with the "Robo-signing" fiasco. For many reasons this caused banks to stop foreclosing. We saw a 95% decrease in available REO's hitting the market each month. From 5,000 a month to 500 a month. As you can imaging this drastically affected the supply side of the market causing prices to begin to increase.
-Jan 2012- after AB284 causing prices to increase and supply to decrease hedge funds and mom and pop investors started coming out of the wood work and buying properties up like hot cakes. With this huge increase in demand combined with the drastic drop in inventory levels appreciation started to sky rocket, bidding wars were beginning to drive prices up and sell for above appraisal value.
-December 2012- people were expecting the annual holiday slowdown in the market but were surprised when December sales soared and continued to drive up prices.
-Q1 and Q2 of 2013- bidding wars were still in full swing (sometimes seeing 20-30 offers on a property.) Inventory levels were are insane lows of only about 3,000 available listings. Appreciation was still soaring around 25%-30%. We were still in a very strong seller's market. Homes selling on average of about 10%-15% above appraisal value. Cash investors were driving this demand and often times out bidding owner occupants that did not have the extra cash to be competitive.
-Summer of 2013- Inventory began to increase, bidding wars were still around but seemed to be not as intense or as frequent. I attribute the increase of inventory to the fact that investors had either already jumped back into the market and were now in the "hold" phase of their buy and hold strategy, as well as many hedge funds and investors had moved their focus of acquisition to other parts of the country where they could still get higher cap rates. The days of 10-12% cap rates of 2009-2011 were gone due to increase property values on rentals that maintained the same rental rate. So basically you are paying more for something but renting it for the same rate.
-Q3 and Q4 of 2013- Inventory was surging week after week and there was a lot of talk about the market switching from a seller's market to a buyer's market in Q1 of 2014. Since the inventory was already increasing (April 2013 to November the inventory almost tripled) we were expecting the Holiday season to really send a spike of inventory and throw us into a buyer's market Q1 2014. To our surprise December actually decreased in inventory. This prevented us from going into a buyer's market and killing the appreciation of recent years.
-Since December 2013 to present- we have maintained an over all inventory level only fluctuating by a few hundred homes up and down. This tell me that the homes are moving about he same pace they are hitting the market. We were not in a healthy market in 2011 with 15,000 homes for sale. We were not in a healthy market with 3,000 homes for sale. It is not healthy or sustainable to have 30% appreciation. No market can maintain that long term. Now that we have balanced out around 8,000 (This includes SFR, townhomes, and condos for all of the Vegas Valley as well as Boulder City which is just outside of Henderson) I am expecting to see a healthy 10-15% appreciation this year. I do not see us going into a buyer's market yet. Investors can still get 4-5% cap rates, flippers can still find good deals now that inventory has risen, and the owner occupant that was getting out bid all the time is now driving the demand side of the market. I would also like to mention that I am not expecting a huge crash like the bubble due to the fact so many of these investment properties were bought with cash rather than leveraging with financing like the in the bubble.
-Present- The good listings that are priced right still sell within a week and may have 2 or 3 offers. Homes are selling for appraisal value or slightly below. If you want 80% of FMV than you need to think outside the box to find deals. It will be very difficult to find 80% of FMV on the MLS right now.
I hope this is helpful and I look forward to doing business with you."
