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Setting Win Limitations

FrankKneeland
FrankKneeland
Aug 15, 2011
11:24am
Block User
My next thought provoking post will be entitled, "Catching the Tabula Rasa Fairy". Feel free to conjecture on what that will be about???
Random
Random
Aug 15, 2011
11:51am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
My next thought provoking post will be entitled, "Catching the Tabula Rasa Fairy". Feel free to conjecture on what that will be about???


It's nature not nuture. Being a parent of two and now blessed with two grandchildren thus far, I have seen the evidence first hand. Funny how they are how they are pretty much from the start.
arcimedes
arcimedes
Aug 15, 2011
12:27pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: KayPea
More information to confuse your logical brain.

I am a recreational player. I strictly play only -EV games.
I am by trade an engineer. As such, I completely understand the math and logic behind AP.
Yet I reject AP and +EV games in favor of -EV games.

There is another variable missing from the equitation that I'll call F.
Game one (G1) has EV of +.05 and F of -5.
Game two (G2) has EV of -.2 and F of +3.
G1 = .05 + -5 = -4.5
G2 = -.2 + 3 = 2.8
G2 > G1, thus, in spite of being -EV, G2 is a better game to play.

So once I apply my subjective value of F to the +EV of games favored by APs, the -EV games are a better play for me.

A: deciding to play
B: deciding to stop playing
C deciding to play again (when nothing has changed between now, and when you decided to stop playing)

A is determined by having a game (G1, G2, etc) with a value > 0. An available game with the highest value will be played.
B is determined by the game value dropping below 0.
C occurs when the game value goes positive again.

The value of F gets applied to each of the above decisions. Since F is subjective it can vary over time and even from one bet to the next so I can freely float between the three states with nothing else changing other than the value of F. The amount won/lost during a session can impact the value of F, thus willing $100 can drop the value of F to the point where the game value drops below 0 and a transition from state A (play) to state B (don't play) occurs. An hour later F may start to grow again to the point where a game has a positive value and we enter state C (play again).


What's really great is when both G and F are positive.
oobiedoobie
oobiedoobie
Aug 15, 2011
12:32pm
Block User


What you say would be spot on had we been testing general reasons for arriving and leaving a casino. We were not. You have come in late I'm afraid. This particular thought experiment was set up only to test leaving as a result of being up $100.

A + $0 = Play
A + $100 = Leave

Sorry, my bad, I read but forgot winning $100 must be part of the reason to leave. Emotional reasons aside, I'd be surprised if there is a reason to set a win limit except for rare situations ($100 short on rent, due tomorrow morning, evicted if you don't come up with it and this is your best shot to get it). However as I stated in a previous post human beings have emotions and those emotions shouldn't be ignored. Here's the scenario: You're spending 5 fun-filled days in Vegas. You've decided that if you lose or if you win less than $1000 you'll "punish" yourself by staying away for 1 month, if you win $1000 or more you'll come back in 2 weeks. After 4 1/2 days you are exactly $1000 ahead. Do you continue to play?

FrankKneeland
FrankKneeland
Aug 15, 2011
12:32pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: Random

It's nature not nuture. Being a parent of two and now blessed with two grandchildren thus far, I have seen the evidence first hand. Funny how they are how they are pretty much from the start.

Good guess, but no it's not about nature vs nurture. It is gambling related, like all my posts.
Random
Random
Aug 15, 2011
1:05pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
Quote
Originally posted by: Random

It's nature not nuture. Being a parent of two and now blessed with two grandchildren thus far, I have seen the evidence first hand. Funny how they are how they are pretty much from the start.

Good guess, but no it's not about nature vs nurture. It is gambling related, like all my posts.


Frank,

I figured it was related to the study, but that is the first thing that popped into my head when reading your title. My daughter is a school psychologist and we have talked a lot about nature/nurture, while the problems she deals with are often tied to home lives, she is now experiencing with her own kids the other side of the equation.

So, you are going to try to find some subjects for your study that have not been exposed to gambling. That will be difficult with an adult age group, but you may find some that don't know much at all about video poker. Since a lot of things in life involve a risk/reward system, the basic approach that one takes when exposed to a new gambling game may already be in place.
KayPea
KayPea
Aug 16, 2011
3:50am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
Your logic is flawless but incomplete, because we need to know what factors influence the value of F and why it changes over time. The passage of time should not be able to, by itself, alter a logical decision unless during the passage of time your information changes.


A: deciding to play
B: deciding to stop playing
C deciding to play again (when nothing has changed between now, and when you decided to stop playing)

Several factors can affect the value of F to cause a transition from state A (play) to state B (stop). The two main ones that affect me are boredom and drunkenness. After 2-3 hours of playing VP I start to get bored so the value of F drops to the point that it is time to go do something else. Also, by that time, I've had a few drinks and starting to feel them. Knowing that as D (drunkenness) increases that EV decreases, also causes F to decrease.

Getting back to win goals, when playing -EV games, luck is the only way to walk away a winner. Once you're up $100, the value of F may drop if you begin to sweat the money. In this case it is better to cash out as a winner and strut around a while. Past experience shows that staying leads to giving back the winnings which causes F to plummet. This is where a win goal can cause a transition from state A (play) to state B (stop).

Transitioning from state B (stop) to state C (play again) requires F to rise back to its original value. If F dropped due to boredom, then a break will relieve the boredom and F will rebound. Likewise if F dropped to a significant rise in D, left alone the value of D will naturally fall over time allowing F to rise again. Lastly, if F dropped in association with a win goal and the fear of not being a winner, then as the level of adrenalin drops in your body, the fear dissipates, and the prospect of winning again drives up the value of F.

Several other factors can cause F to drop and rebound. Hunger can be abated with a meal break. Fatigue can be remedied with a nap. Sexual urges can be cured by a trip to the desert.
FrankKneeland
FrankKneeland
Aug 16, 2011
4:36am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: KayPea
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
Your logic is flawless but incomplete, because we need to know what factors influence the value of F and why it changes over time. The passage of time should not be able to, by itself, alter a logical decision unless during the passage of time your information changes.


A: deciding to play
B: deciding to stop playing
C deciding to play again (when nothing has changed between now, and when you decided to stop playing)

Several factors can affect the value of F to cause a transition from state A (play) to state B (stop). The two main ones that affect me are boredom and drunkenness. After 2-3 hours of playing VP I start to get bored so the value of F drops to the point that it is time to go do something else. Also, by that time, I've had a few drinks and starting to feel them. Knowing that as D (drunkenness) increases that EV decreases, also causes F to decrease.

Getting back to win goals, when playing -EV games, luck is the only way to walk away a winner. Once you're up $100, the value of F may drop if you begin to sweat the money. In this case it is better to cash out as a winner and strut around a while. Past experience shows that staying leads to giving back the winnings which causes F to plummet. This is where a win goal can cause a transition from state A (play) to state B (stop).

Transitioning from state B (stop) to state C (play again) requires F to rise back to its original value. If F dropped due to boredom, then a break will relieve the boredom and F will rebound. Likewise if F dropped to a significant rise in D, left alone the value of D will naturally fall over time allowing F to rise again. Lastly, if F dropped in association with a win goal and the fear of not being a winner, then as the level of adrenalin drops in your body, the fear dissipates, and the prospect of winning again drives up the value of F.

Several other factors can cause F to drop and rebound. Hunger can be abated with a meal break. Fatigue can be remedied with a nap. Sexual urges can be cured by a trip to the desert.


Well I certainly can't dispute any of what you said because none of it is related to the machine or the game you are choosing, or not choosing to play. It all relates to your desire to play and other factors which wax and wane independent of the games return. I would say that this argument is in support of our conclusion that there is no logical reason to leave as a result of being +$100.

Many reasons yes. Logical ones, no.

Am I missing something?
KayPea
KayPea
Aug 16, 2011
5:57am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: FrankKneeland
I would say that this argument is in support of our conclusion that there is no logical reason to leave as a result of being +$100.

Many reasons yes. Logical ones, no.


I agree.
The reasons are all emotional as there is no logical reason to play a -EV game in the first place except for fun.
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