Vegas Free-for-All - Splitting tens

Splitting tens

CowboyKell

Aug 24, 2016
2:59pm

Quote

Originally posted by: forkushV

Quote
Originally posted by: CowboyKell
Bryce Carlson wrote the book 'BlackJack for blood'. It is a pretty complicated book where he puts forth his Omega II card counting system. The system is considered one of the best but it is complicated and takes a deep mathematical understanding to implement. What I do like is his very methodical approach to the game. He just doesn't give a statistical analysis of the basic play but goes deep into the math and tackles all the variables.
He shows that splitting tens is a good move. Certainly better than all the bad connotations people seem to have with it.

You're claiming that Bryce Carlson or ANY other legitimate blackjack author recommended that non-counters split tens? I don't believe that for a nanosecond. Has Rob Singer written a blackjack book by the way?

And the stupid goes even deeper. You claimed that when the casino allows doubling down after splitting, that is an incentive to split tens. Pray tell what hand would you EVER double down on after splitting tens. On a soft 21? Or on a twelve, a thirteen, a fourteen, a fifteen, a sixteen, a seventeen, an eighteen, a nineteen, or a twenty?
Those are your only options- so name one time it's smart to double after splitting tens.

But if you're looking for a playing method that will keep those nice folks at the Golden Gate treating you well, I think you've nailed it. Congrats.

What ever happened to you? You used to be one of the smarter people on this forum. While I rarely agreed with your opinions at least you used to put forth a viable argument. For sometime now all you put forth is angry rhetoric.

I would imagine all of the 'advice' given by the published experts is for card counters since that is the basis of their books. In Bryce Carlson's book he differentiates between the actual math of a single play/hand and that of a counted shoe per the current count. On his statistical analysis of the deck(s) he also refers to the floating advantage as it applies to an un counted shoe as it gets down to the last cards.

Everyone I have read so far starts their math analysis of each scenario as if it were the first dealt hand. And splitting tens has a 64% chance of winning, and that's just for the one split. No one is disagreeing with that. The only explanations given by the experts for not splitting tens is that standing pat is a safer play, in the long run, for ONE SPLIT. Others are that it attracts less attention to the player.

The Ace-ten after a split pays even money. So, yes, I am going to double down on that 11 against a 5 or 6 every time. Does anyone NOT double down on an 11 against a dealer 5 or 6?
I guess Forky doesn't.

IndyBoilerman

Aug 25, 2016
12:01am

Block User

Someone recently sent me a "private message" suggesting that Billy and Forkie are very angry. This person concluded that they need to get laid. Should we pitch in and buy one of them a plane ticket so they can visit with one another?

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Quote

Originally posted by: CowboyKell

Quote
Originally posted by: forkushV
Quote
Originally posted by: CowboyKell
Bryce Carlson wrote the book 'BlackJack for blood'. It is a pretty complicated book where he puts forth his Omega II card counting system. The system is considered one of the best but it is complicated and takes a deep mathematical understanding to implement. What I do like is his very methodical approach to the game. He just doesn't give a statistical analysis of the basic play but goes deep into the math and tackles all the variables.
He shows that splitting tens is a good move. Certainly better than all the bad connotations people seem to have with it.
You're claiming that Bryce Carlson or ANY other legitimate blackjack author recommended that non-counters split tens? I don't believe that for a nanosecond. Has Rob Singer written a blackjack book by the way?

And the stupid goes even deeper. You claimed that when the casino allows doubling down after splitting, that is an incentive to split tens. Pray tell what hand would you EVER double down on after splitting tens. On a soft 21? Or on a twelve, a thirteen, a fourteen, a fifteen, a sixteen, a seventeen, an eighteen, a nineteen, or a twenty?
Those are your only options- so name one time it's smart to double after splitting tens.

But if you're looking for a playing method that will keep those nice folks at the Golden Gate treating you well, I think you've nailed it. Congrats.

forkushV

Aug 25, 2016
12:21am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: CowboyKell

Quote
Originally posted by: forkushV
Quote
Originally posted by: CowboyKell
Bryce Carlson wrote the book 'BlackJack for blood'. It is a pretty complicated book where he puts forth his Omega II card counting system. The system is considered one of the best but it is complicated and takes a deep mathematical understanding to implement. What I do like is his very methodical approach to the game. He just doesn't give a statistical analysis of the basic play but goes deep into the math and tackles all the variables.
He shows that splitting tens is a good move. Certainly better than all the bad connotations people seem to have with it.
You're claiming that Bryce Carlson or ANY other legitimate blackjack author recommended that non-counters split tens? I don't believe that for a nanosecond. Has Rob Singer written a blackjack book by the way?

And the stupid goes even deeper. You claimed that when the casino allows doubling down after splitting, that is an incentive to split tens. Pray tell what hand would you EVER double down on after splitting tens. On a soft 21? Or on a twelve, a thirteen, a fourteen, a fifteen, a sixteen, a seventeen, an eighteen, a nineteen, or a twenty?
Those are your only options- so name one time it's smart to double after splitting tens.

But if you're looking for a playing method that will keep those nice folks at the Golden Gate treating you well, I think you've nailed it. Congrats.

You keep doing that and the pit crew at the Golden Gate will start kissing you on the mouth.

No, a soft 21 is not the same as an eleven for doubling purposes. And your "64% chance of winning" when splitting is meaningless unless you compare it to the outcome of standing on a pat 20. As long as you were speaking as a recreational player, I have no problem whatsoever with you making the above plays if they add to your enjoyment. But as soon as you start recommending that play to others with an uncounted deck and invoke math and respected authors like Bryce Carlson, I'm calling you out.

Don't get me wrong. I seriously LOVE players who split tens and hit soft 21's after doubling. If enough players did that, casinos would be able to offer 3:2, single deck, unlimited doubles and splits, early surrender, dealer stands on soft 17 games. And still make a ton of money. So please, by all means spread the word, start a website, give seminars, write a book.

Make blackjack great again!

melonhead

Aug 25, 2016
12:45am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: CowboyKell

Quote
Originally posted by: forkushV
Quote
Originally posted by: CowboyKell
Bryce Carlson wrote the book 'BlackJack for blood'. It is a pretty complicated book where he puts forth his Omega II card counting system. The system is considered one of the best but it is complicated and takes a deep mathematical understanding to implement. What I do like is his very methodical approach to the game. He just doesn't give a statistical analysis of the basic play but goes deep into the math and tackles all the variables.
He shows that splitting tens is a good move. Certainly better than all the bad connotations people seem to have with it.
You're claiming that Bryce Carlson or ANY other legitimate blackjack author recommended that non-counters split tens? I don't believe that for a nanosecond. Has Rob Singer written a blackjack book by the way?

And the stupid goes even deeper. You claimed that when the casino allows doubling down after splitting, that is an incentive to split tens. Pray tell what hand would you EVER double down on after splitting tens. On a soft 21? Or on a twelve, a thirteen, a fourteen, a fifteen, a sixteen, a seventeen, an eighteen, a nineteen, or a twenty?
Those are your only options- so name one time it's smart to double after splitting tens.

But if you're looking for a playing method that will keep those nice folks at the Golden Gate treating you well, I think you've nailed it. Congrats.

From Ken Smith at blackjackinfo.com:

"Splitting Tens costs you money.
Assume we are playing a 6 deck, H17 game and we are dealt a pair of 10s against a dealer 6. Our initial bet is $10.
If we stand with 20, we’ll win our $10 bet 78% of the time. We’ll push with a dealer 20 about 11% of the time, and lose to a dealer 21 another 11% of the time. On average, we’ll win $6.77 by standing.
If we instead split the tens (only once) and put a $10 bet on each hand, what happens? On average, each of these hands is still a winner, but the average win on each hand is only $2.78. Our total expected win on both hands combined is just $5.56, which is more than $1 less than the value if we had just stood on the 20. Despite having twice as much money bet in a favorable situation, we are now expected to win less overall.
If it’s bad to split tens just once, it is of course worse to resplit them. If your strategy is to split tens and resplit up to the usual three times allowed, your total bet will be either $20, $30 or $40. Over all of these possibilities, your expected profit drops further yet to a grand total of only $4.51, more than $2 less than the value of your initial single $10 bet on a pat 20."

By all means, though, keep splitting your tens. If I'm playing at a table with you I will defend you against anybody jumping your shit. It is your money, your cards, your decisions. I enjoy anything that makes the game more fun, and keeps the heat off those of us who only split them on a "hunch."

OddsWrkin

Aug 25, 2016
5:12am

Block User

You spelled "hunch" wrong.

OddsWrkin

Aug 25, 2016
5:15am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: vegasdev

Quote
Originally posted by: OddsWrkin
This is exactly the reason that I prefer pitch games. I pay far less attention to what the other players do.

I like your user name (oddswrkin). I never hear that anymore.

On my last trip in May, I had odds working many times after a made point. I did not have a positive result on any of them, lost my odds way too many times.

I will never do that again . . .

until the next time.

CowboyKell

Aug 25, 2016
5:04pm

Block User

All of your responses are so typical of you. You are the smartest person in the room. Everyone else is a complete moron. Only you know what you are talking about.
This is what makes you such an ass.

You never "get" what anyone else says, or worse, you do but purposely change the meaning. You always twist a comment around, take things out of context, take things too literal or not literal enough, whatever suits your purpose. Sadly, I really think you believe yourself.

Your need to feel superior over others is palpable in your text. It used to be funny, lately it has just gotten sad.

Quote

Originally posted by: forkushV

Quote
Originally posted by: CowboyKell
Quote
Originally posted by: forkushV
Quote
Originally posted by: CowboyKell
Bryce Carlson wrote the book 'BlackJack for blood'. It is a pretty complicated book where he puts forth his Omega II card counting system. The system is considered one of the best but it is complicated and takes a deep mathematical understanding to implement. What I do like is his very methodical approach to the game. He just doesn't give a statistical analysis of the basic play but goes deep into the math and tackles all the variables.
He shows that splitting tens is a good move. Certainly better than all the bad connotations people seem to have with it.
You're claiming that Bryce Carlson or ANY other legitimate blackjack author recommended that non-counters split tens? I don't believe that for a nanosecond. Has Rob Singer written a blackjack book by the way?

And the stupid goes even deeper. You claimed that when the casino allows doubling down after splitting, that is an incentive to split tens. Pray tell what hand would you EVER double down on after splitting tens. On a soft 21? Or on a twelve, a thirteen, a fourteen, a fifteen, a sixteen, a seventeen, an eighteen, a nineteen, or a twenty?
Those are your only options- so name one time it's smart to double after splitting tens.

But if you're looking for a playing method that will keep those nice folks at the Golden Gate treating you well, I think you've nailed it. Congrats.

What ever happened to you? You used to be one of the smarter people on this forum. While I rarely agreed with your opinions at least you used to put forth a viable argument. For sometime now all you put forth is angry rhetoric.

I would imagine all of the 'advice' given by the published experts is for card counters since that is the basis of their books. In Bryce Carlson's book he differentiates between the actual math of a single play/hand and that of a counted shoe per the current count. On his statistical analysis of the deck(s) he also refers to the floating advantage as it applies to an un counted shoe as it gets down to the last cards.

Everyone I have read so far starts their math analysis of each scenario as if it were the first dealt hand. And splitting tens has a 64% chance of winning, and that's just for the one split. No one is disagreeing with that. The only explanations given by the experts for not splitting tens is that standing pat is a safer play, in the long run, for ONE SPLIT. Others are that it attracts less attention to the player.

The Ace-ten after a split pays even money. So, yes, I am going to double down on that 11 against a 5 or 6 every time. Does anyone NOT double down on an 11 against a dealer 5 or 6?...

CowboyKell

Aug 25, 2016
5:51pm

Block User

So, just to make it clear and in case anyone other than the obvious miss understands what I have written.

I have not and do not RECOMMEND splitting tens. I have merely reported my findings and related my experiences. I have given my reasons for what I do.

I have had a renewed interest in reading about the game of BJ and have made my comments on the content of several publications. I DO recommend those interested to read books like "BJ for blood". It has some pretty deep math and promotes a fairly complicated counting system but the statistical analysis of the game is informative.

I believe my interest in the subject is based on my own prior belief that splitting tens is the worst thing you can do in BJ. I did not learn that splitting tens is BETTER than standing pat. I did learn that it is not as bad as I thought.

I guess I should have put it better in my original post. If I am going to play only one hand and I have an 85% chance to win even money on one unit wagered OR a 64% chance of winning even money on two or more units. Well, I am going to take the chance on the later.
No mater what you choose to do I will not be ridiculing you or calling you "simple minded" or believing your type of play will finance the casinos. I'll simply play along, cheer you on and hope you win.

bushman

Aug 26, 2016
5:01am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: OddsWrkin
My understanding is that there are two times when you should split tens. One is when you are sitting at the table by yourself, the other is when you want to be sitting at the table by yourself.

Don't forget to tip the servers.

I agree completely with what you say, but must add a third...If your wife wants to do it. OK, she does not play the game, but watches me. She has played at home, and, of course, splitting the 10s won for her. So, I don't argue (too much). Funny thing is, she won't split that third ten.

billryan

Aug 26, 2016
8:34am

Block User

Since you want to be a math guy,what will you win by standing on 100 soft 21s vs 5-6 vs. 200 hands of doubling down on the same hands?
On the one hand, you have no chance of losing a dime by standing on soft 21.
Compare the percentage of hands a dealer will get a 21 to push you. It's low, less than ten percent, if I recall.So you'll win about 90% of these hands.
Doubling the 11 you have five cards that give you a stiff hand that you'll lose the majority of the time. So of every 13 hands, you'll have less than 50% chance of winning five of them. Throw in the potential pushes with the dealers 17-21 hands and at best you are at about a 65% win rate.
With a $10 bet, the player who stands wins $900. The player who doubles wins $1300 but also losses about $500. For a net win of $800 while putting twice as much at risk.

It's actually much worse than I thought as the percents of hands where a dealer turns a 5 or 6 into a 21 is less than 5%. You are giving away twenty percent of expected value by splitting them.

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