Super Bowl XLIX Odds

The Pats are claiming it was natural that the balls deflated (yet it didn't happen with the colts). I think back to my days of probability, statistics, and the bell curve. If this truly happened, then we reached the very end of one side of the bell curve, meaning the probability of such a thing happening was almost nil.

For those brushing aside the cheating when practices were filmed, I'm sure Mr. Belachick would have protested more if it wasn't a big deal. He had to pay a cool half million for a supposed non-incident.

It will never happen. A video could surface today of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick breaking Jerry Sandusky out of prison to molest the game balls and they would still be playing in the superbowl Sunday. The NFL is all about the money and nothing more. Money will always come before integrity in the NFL.

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Mark McGwire would like to express their approval of this statement and remind everyone that steriods were widely used by MLB players in the 90s.

I can help you with that... Stats is one of my things.
Here's the Chi-Squared table

..................... deflated ..................... not
Pats................... 11 .......................... 1
Colts .................. 0 .......................... 12

The X^2 statistic for this distribution is 20.308. That's associated with a probability of 0.000007.

Patriots fans on this forum will surely remind you that this means it could have happened by chance. Just slightly less than one out of 1 million trials.

The video version is here.

So..You're saying Brady is lying and covering up about his cheating ways. I thought so.

Yes, Brady is lying.

Interesting charts showing how the Patriots fumble percentage dramatically changed starting in 2007....

So what changed in 2007? Well, there was a rule changed that allowed Away Teams to use their own balls.

Who was the man behind this rule change? None other than Tom Brady...Himself.



Stats show New England became nearly fumble proof after rule change proposed by Brady

Boldface added by herbrawt for emphasis

If we look at just the data collected as part of investigation recently conducted by the NFL, we can consider the validity of this claim. 11 of 12 New England balls were outside of the legal range. 12 of 12 Indy balls were inside of the legal range.

The following statements are consistent with these data:
1. Every team but one doctored their footballs.
2. Every team but one did not doctor their footballs.
3. Every team that is the Patriots doctored their footballs.
4. Every team that is not the Patriots did not doctor their footballs.

The following statement is inconsistent with the data:
1. Every team does it, every game.

Maybe Brady is smarter than he lets on. Of course, that's just another reason to dislike him even more.