Terrible's: Not so terrible opportunity, or not?

Roadtrip, you lost me on this one. What we are taling about is a rebate on the loss, right? So all the math means nothing. If you lose $1,000 they give you $100. If you don't lose, they dont pay. If you gamble and win, there is no rebate. If you lost a thousand you get $100 back. What does this have to do with house advantage or anything else? I think you are "over thinking" this. when the casino wins a thousand dollars it has won a thousand dollars -- so it will give you 10% back so youll come back to lose more money.

I am/was looking to exploit this promo offer.

Off the top, it seems clear that betting $900 on an "even" game to win $1000 is an automatic winner.

But when you look at this as a "long term" offer and play, and factor in the true expectation, it appears to not be profitable when 100 trials are used.

Look, Im not a math guy, but explain to how a 10% rebate on any loss can be profitable no matter what game you are playing and no matter what the odds or player advantage is? A loss, is a loss. Isnt it?

In theory, once every 24 hours, you would "bet" 900 to possibly win 1000.

Your profit is earned when you win the bet. You collect $1000.00

You collect your profit when you lose the bet. You pay $900.00 after rebate.

If you play 10 times, and split evenly after the 10 trials......

You will have won $5,000.00 after 5 trials
You will have lost $5,000.00 after 5 trials, and than collected a total of $500.00 from rebates.
So after 10 trials, your profit would be $500, even though you did not have a new win, or loss on the game itself.

Losing LESS, because of an advantage, equates to a win, IF the exact same scenario will repeat itself often enough.

Losing $9.00 to Win $10.00 is a winner every time, if the trial will be long enough for expectation to reach "norm". There is an expectation.

But, I forgot you are not a "long term" player.

I admit, I dont have a clue as to what you are talking about. But let me lay it out for you this way:

Day one: You start with and bet $1000 and lose. You collect a $100 rebate. Your net loss is $900.

How can you possibly break even or make money from that?

Okay, we move on to day 2:

You have $100 rebate money plus you take $900 out of your savings, so you now have $1000 to bet. You bet $1000 and win $1000. Of the $1,000 you just won, you replace the $900 you took out of your savings, leaving you a $100 win on the session.

Over two days, you now have an $800 loss.

Day 3: You still have to take $900 out of your savings to have $1,000 to bet. If you have the same luck on day 3, you will replace the $900 you took out of your savings and you will have a $700 loss.

And if you have the same luck on day 4, you will have a $600 loss.
And if you have the same luck on day 5, you will have a $500 loss.

And on day 6, a $400 loss.
And on day 7, a $300 loss.
And on day 8, a $200 loss.
And on day 9, a $100 loss.

And if by some mirace you go nine days of winning youll finally break even.

Is that what you are talking about?

I think it's more like: you are going to bet $1000 in a single bet every day for 10 days on an even odds game (No house or player advantage).

You would expect to win 5 times for + $5000.
You would expect to lose 5 times for - 5000.
You get $500 in Loss Rebate, so your expected return over 10 days is $500.

Now, we know there are no actual casino games where the house edge is 0....but that brings up a question...

Question: How small would the house advantage have to be for you to actually have the odds in your favor when the loss rebate is considered?

Answer: 5%

So, this would be an unprofitable strategy at roulette where the normal house edge is 5.26%, but a profitable one on the Craps Pass line where the normal house advantage is 1.41%. In that case, your actual advantage with the rebate is 3.59%

No, NONONONONO.

Look again. On Day 1, you lose $1000.

On day 2, you win $1000.

So, If you win on day 2, you have $2,000 in your hands. The $1,000 you bet and the $1,000 you won. Plus you have the $100 rebate. A total of $2100.00 Your NET profit at this point will be $100, because your original bankroll was (in this instance) $2,000. (The amount bet on Day 1 & Day 2)

If you continue to win, on Day 3 you will have $2,000 after your win in chips, plus Day 2 money. You will be ahead a total of $1,000, plus you will have collected a rebate for day 1 of $100. You won 2 days for a $2,000 "win", and lost on day 1 for a $1000 loss minus rebate.

On Day 4, your 3rd winning day in a row, you will have $2,000 (again your original bet plus winnings) at the cage. Your total profit will be now be 2,000 on the wager (You won 3 of 4 bets) for a total "Win" at this point of $2,000, plus the rebate for day 1 for a net profit of $2100.00

You "forgot' that when you win, you get your wager, plus the same amount as your wager as profit on that bet. When you bet $1,000, when you go to the cage your will do one of the following:

1: Collect a $100.00 loss rebate OR
2: Cash out $2,000 in chips.

IF 1, your $1000 bet becomes a $900 bet.
IF # 2, your $1,000 bet wins $1,000, for a net profit of $1,000. By coincidence, the same amount you lost on day 1.

I don't think I can explain it any better than that.

roadtrip, I have to ask this again: If you lose $1000 on the first day and get a $100 rebate, you now have only $100. Are you saying that on the second day you are turning $100 into $2,000?

If on the second day you are betting $1,000 to win $1,000 where is the other $900 coming from (since you have the $100 rebate money)??? OR are you telling me that you are starting with a $2,000 bankroll?

If you start with a 2,000 bankroll this is what happens:

Day 1. You start with a 2,000 bankroll. Bet 1,000 lose 900 after the 100 rebate.

Day 2. You start with a 1,100 bankroll. If you win 1,000 you would have 2,100 but you would only have a net profit of $100 because you started with 2,000.

There you go. $100 is a 5% return...which is exactly what's expected with this strategy (assuming an even odds game).

Sounds kind of like sports betting. Except instead of the casino getting 5% vig, the player is getting a 5% rebate.