Terrible's: Not so terrible opportunity, or not?

Allrighty then...Now you claim this doesn't work because of the casino edge. Ok, we'll simulate that in our coin flip bet. On bet #15, you will automatically win. That gives you an edge on the entire 30 days of 3.33 percent...somewhere between craps and roulette. Now you're the Casino, Money. You have better odds than a craps game...but you have to rebate 50% of my losses. Are you game?

Come on Money...you have the 'edge'...you just have to give me a rebate on my losses. You claim you could rebate 90% and only lose some of your Profit Margin. You claim this is 'silly math'. When do we start?

I already wrote "the match" in a message above, using "perfect expectation for results, and 100 trials which ended up showing a $700 loss.

My original intent was to find the perfect strategy, if one exists, to exploit this offer, if it is indeed an opportunity, either short term, or long term.

That strategy could be one decision per day for $1,000, or perhaps several decisions, looking for a profit of 2x,3x,5x or loss. The player would always collect the rebate on losing days. The bankroll should be significant, not case money.

It is possible, and I now almost expect that the "optimal" strategy for this offer is to "use" it one time only, on a short session. As soon as a decision is reached, quit. The fewer bets made, the better the expectation should be.

Either lose $900, or win $1,000.

The "player advantage" would than be at it's maximum.

My thinking has evolved that his offer is exploitable or very beneficial, favoring the player, on a one time basis. On a daily or frequent basis, it should end up being a loser in the long run. (see previous post)

The larger the number of decision, the smaller the player "advantage" becomes until it evolves into the house being favored.

Incidentally, I telephoned Terrible's and spoke with a Pit Critter named Tommy. I asked about the offer, it is still in effect, and he said there is no objection to using it every 24+ hours. Maximum bet is $500 on Table Games. He said playing two or more hands is fine with them.

He also indicated that table gaming has become busier.

One thing is certain. This offer is not for the "low rollers" among us. You must be willing to risk $900.00 to win $1,000 on a wager where you, as the player, have an edge in what, for simplistic purposes of explanation, is essentially a 50-50 game.

Would you flip a coin for $900 to win $1,000 one time only? If you answer yes, than this could be an offer your should look at more closely when in Vegas.

I now think my original "math" may not be correct. I was looking for expectation, and did not take into consideration the game rules and expected results, although they are considered into the 0.47% house advantage on that game with those rules.

With $500 wagers, and 100 "sessions", there will be several naturals paying 3-2, there will be splits, doubles, DAS, etc.

So a session win, or loss could be significantly more, since "perfect strategy" must be employed.

I went to the Wizard sites and hopefully will get better information and still think this offer may be profitable.

I just do not know. And I want to find out the "true" math and expectation.

you are correct, roadtrip, you"d have a big advantage over the house short term, long term, any term as long as you kept your sessions as short as possible. doubling and splitting strategies would probably change a bit. your original calculation of a $700 loss over 100 days, as you may have noted, was way off.

I am no longer convinced my calculations were "correct", nor that this offer is profitable in the "long term" of 100 sessions.

First, remember that at blackjack, there are a variety of hand distributions. Doubles, splits, re-splits, DAS, naturals, etc. And pushes.

Second, any knowledgeable Blackjack players and counters will acknowledge, the player will lose more hands than they win. Profit at Blackjack comes from natural 3-2 payoffs, doubles, splits, double after splits, etc. Those hands where the player may increase their bets.

Any deviation from perfect basic strategy, (assuming no card counting) should/could be costly. Long term making the wrong play should cost. I do not think there are any "Special Plays" situation in blackjack.

I hope this statement will not evolve into an argument of math vs short term, etc. I started this topic to find what should be the expected result using perfect strategy, and receiving random but perfect distribution of hands and results according to expectation. The reason for this is I am ONLY seeking the EV for this offer.

I do know my original math is flawed, and will probably put up "better" math, stats, and more shortly.

But, at best, I'm currently leaning toward the probability that this offer will not be profitable long term, presuming results for xxx plays fall exactly on the expectation numbers.

I am also leaning toward the probability that this offer should be beneficial to an advantage player on a very short term and very limited number of plays.

Here...I can make it really easy for you. No reason to play blackjack. Just put your $1000 on the pass line at craps every day. The normal house edge is 1.41%. The loss rebate is worth 5% to you. Your advantage is 3.59% or 35.90 average profit a day with $1,000 a day risked. Is it worth it? If you could do it a million times, you'd own them.

tsk tsk.... The dark side is lower.

Betting the don't is also an option with slightly higher yield.

But BJ does offer the "best" at .47%.

Well that's true, but then you have to deal those pesky splits and doubles. I wonder if the loss rebate includes craps odds bets you lose. Then you could put $333 on the pass $666 on the (double) odds. Talk about the dark side.

Roadtrip, the reason there would be "special plays" is at times you are getting 10-9 odds for the hand you are playing. Correct blackjack strategy is based on 10-10 odds. I don't know what changes, or their frequency but I'm sure some exist if you want to maximize profitability. Trust me, the player has the advantage under these ground rules unless this particular blackjack game has horrific rules (e.g. ties lose).As with any proposition where one has an advantage, the longer one does it, the closer one will come to that positive expectation.

The splits, doubles, etc are where the profit at blackjack come from. And those are calculated into the house advantage.

I did not ask about odds, but the promo is "losses" so should apply to all losses.

Still, even if it were 10x odds, the reduced house advantage would probably not equal the .47% @ BJ.

I'll check later. Victoria Secret fashion show is on, so it's "hot babes" time here for awhile.