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Originally posted by: melbedewyQuote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
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Originally posted by: RoadTrip
I started this topic to find what should be the expected result using perfect strategy, and receiving random but perfect distribution of hands and results according to expectation. The reason for this is I am ONLY seeking the EV for this offer.
Here...I can make it really easy for you. No reason to play blackjack. Just put your $1000 on the pass line at craps every day. The normal house edge is 1.41%. The loss rebate is worth 5% to you. Your advantage is 3.59% or 35.90 average profit a day with $1,000 a day risked. Is it worth it? If you could do it a million times, you'd own them.
Absolutely. Which is why I recommend everyone burn this out because this promotion will be gone quicker than those oversized welfare checks at Southpoint.
This promotion has been in effect since at least mid December, 2009. Perhaps earlier. I happened to "find" it mentioned on a different forum I visit infrequently, went back and read the thread which started in December, 2009, and became interested in the potential EV of this as an additional weapon in my arsenal, to add to my coupon runs and casino offers "advantage" taking.
My conversation with a pit critter yesterday makes me believe it is not going anywhere, and that, so far, there are no "issues" with it.
As many of you know, my Vegas visits are predicated solely on the EV of offers and coupons. If that EV exceeds my actual trip costs, it's likely I'll visit again. If I do not have enough +EV to "pay" my trip expenses, I will not return.
Since I do not want to be obligated to "gamble", I prefer to pay for my "frugal" accommodations, and a 7 night visit will cost me less than $500 complete with travel. Some meal comps, poker cash back, etc reduce my costs. But I will only return if I can project enough +EV to pay all my anticipated expenses. And although I can get some room comps, I do not want to gamble and be obligated, so would not "use" them.
Still, the math, to me, seems to indicate that the "grind" of the house advantage will catch up and provide a long term loss in theoretical expectation.
The house advantage of .47% means they theoretically win $47.00 for every $1,000 bet. That is regardless of the result and includes pushes.
Although I do know my original math projecting $700 loss after 100 sessions is inaccurate, I am somewhat convinced that there is a point where a long term loss is expected.
Since this offer has been in effect for almost a year, perhaps longer, I suspect that the people at Terrible's know they are not losing $$ with it on a long term basis.
If it truly favors the player, they would have been swamped, lost a bunch, and withdrawn it by now.
But I'm still looking at it, and planning to work the math and proper expectation correctly to verify.
I am, however, convinced that for the first $2,000 ish "coin in" wagered at tables games, the player will be getting the best of it.
