Terrible's: Not so terrible opportunity, or not?

bingo
Regarding the challenge: sorry, not going to fall for it. I want a house edge on every single bet just as it is on every casino game.

You know casinos know the math as well as you do. And they know that even when they offer a bet with NO house advantage, they are still more likely to win that bet. Case in point: the odds on the passline in craps. The odds have no house advantage, but the house is still more likely to win.

If you want to do the challenge, lets do it on a real casino game on a real bet. No hanky panky coin flips with an engineered return.

In fact, why dont you do it at craps? and give yourself that extra fraction of a percent by playing the DP. Let me know how you do.
One more question regarding the "flyer." I note the term "qualified play." Is a single bet qualified play? Or must you play for one hour, two hours, or longer to qualify for the rebate?

I recall a friend of mine who a couple of years ago was playing craps with me. His budget for the weekend was $25-thousand. He lost it all in less than two hours of play. At the end of the weekend he was not compled. And the reason: he did not play the required four hours per day. Imagine that-- a twenty-five thousand dollar loss in less than two hours of play but no comps because he didnt play for at least four hours a day.

I really wonder if a single bet qualifies for the rebate. Did anyone ask?
Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Regarding the challenge: sorry, not going to fall for it. I want a house edge on every single bet just as it is on every casino game.

You know casinos know the math as well as you do. And they know that even when they offer a bet with NO house advantage, they are still more likely to win that bet. Case in point: the odds on the passline in craps. The odds have no house advantage, but the house is still more likely to win.

If you want to do the challenge, lets do it on a real casino game on a real bet. No hanky panky coin flips with an engineered return.

In fact, why dont you do it at craps? and give yourself that extra fraction of a percent by playing the DP. Let me know how you do.


The casinos know the math better than I do. I'm not embarrassed to admit that. Any knowledgeable craps player knows that true odds have no house advantage. They make their money on the vig of your initial wager at the start of the "hand'. Taking the odds does reduce the House Advantage because it dilutes the original bet advantage.

Since you asked me to let you know how I do, I'm guessing that means that you are not offering the loss rebate bet anymore. Good decision. I am happy you realized the error of your statement along the lines of offering large rebates to losers because you only reduce your profit.

OK, this should be quick and painful for you.

Our "hypothetical" bet will be me (Villain) vs you (House). The house will rebate 10% of Villain's losses. House "advantage" before rebate: 1.36%

Villain will bet $10.00 on every roll of the dice, on either the Don't Pass, or Don't Come for a total of 1,980 rolls.

Results:

Villain Wins: 949 @ $10.00 = 9490.00

Villain Pushes: 55 @ $10.00 = 0.00 (Damn that Bar 12)

Villain Loses: 976 @ $9.00 (after 10% loss rebate) = $8784.00

Villain WINS a NET profit of: $706.00 or $0.36 per roll of the dice @ $10.00 bet.

Total of rebates: 976.00

Now, you're probably wondering how the above numbers were determined.

I used the Don't Pass Return Table from the Wizard of Odds site, https://wizardofodds.com/craps and I am assuming it is accurate. Results shown are based on the "Don't Pass Return Table" located on the linked page.

Did you say "Ouch" ?




Before I say "ouch" I'd like to know how the casino determines what it advertises: "Receive up to 10% cash rebate with qualified play." There are a lot of "ifs" in that and I would like to know the fine print.

Do you need to play for four hours or longer? Do you necessarily get the full 10% on your loss? Or is the percentage of the loss based on your average bet, total amount lost, hours bet, number of hands bet, types of bet? Is the pass, DP excluded perhaps?

I am very familiar with the comp system and rating system at Caesars for craps. Many players dont know this, but a player who limits himself to the pass and dp with or without odds actually gets a lower rating than a player who bets the numbers. If you bet the hardways you can get a higher rating. Bet the hardways and the one-roll bets (horn and field) and your rating zooms up. So if you were to have at risk $1,000 on the passline, and another player spreads his same $1,000 action on only the hardways and field, the passline bettor will have a much, much lower rating than the "action player." The "numbers bettor" will be somewhere between those two.

I'd like to hear from someone who has actually played at Terribles, gotten the rebate and found out how the rebate actually works.

Then we can talk about a challenge here. Im betting on Terribles.

There is an old saying in the "consumer protection biz" -- "when something is too good to be true, it probably is."
Well, I couldnt wait, so I called the blackjack pit at Terribles and I got their rules for the rebate. youre not going to like this, because it blows all of your math out of the water. As I suspected their rules protect the casino. Here they are.

Rule number one. The maximum bet that earns a rebate is $500.

Rule number two: You must lose a minimum of $1,000 (at least two bets at the $500 level) to get a 10% rebate.

Rule number three: If you bet $500 or less and lose you only get a 5% rebate.

Now the "killer" rule: While the rebate is good once in a 24-hour period, you had better be away from the table for more than 24 hours before you make another bet. This is because if they find ANY WIN during the previous 24 hours, they will use that win to reduce your rebate on subsequent losses. In effect what they are doing is forcing you to spread out your bets over longer than a 24 hour period. And don't forget that two bet minimum totaling at least $1,000 to get the 10% rebate.

Now, let's see your math??
Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Well, I couldnt wait, so I called the blackjack pit at Terribles and I got their rules for the rebate. youre not going to like this, because it blows all of your math out of the water. As I suspected their rules protect the casino. Here they are.

Rule number three: If you bet $500 or less and lose you only get a 5% rebate.
Now, let's see your math??


Actually #3 is the only one that's relevant. If you have to wait 24 hours, you wait 24 hours. A 5% rebate on losses equates to a 2.5% player advantage. Subtract out the craps house edge of 1.47% and it's still slightly (1%) profitable. I'm sure there's a way to vary your bets to get up to the 1K level and add at least another 1% to that....but that's not the point...

You said:

Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
but no amount of rebate, unless it is more than 100% of the loss, would increase a player's edge or advantage.


Have you now changed your tune on that? Hopefully it should be clear now that any loss rebate in excess of 2 times the normal house advangate can turn the game positive for the player. If you can't see that yet, then rebate me my 75% on losses and I'll play you any standard casino game you choose (including the Big Wheel or Keno) and I'll guarantee that EVENTUALLY you'll end up broke.
Quote

Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Well, I couldnt wait, so I called the blackjack pit at Terribles and I got their rules for the rebate. youre not going to like this, because it blows all of your math out of the water. As I suspected their rules protect the casino. Here they are.

Rule number one. The maximum bet that earns a rebate is $500.

Rule number two: You must lose a minimum of $1,000 (at least two bets at the $500 level) to get a 10% rebate.

Rule number three: If you bet $500 or less and lose you only get a 5% rebate.

Now the "killer" rule: While the rebate is good once in a 24-hour period, you had better be away from the table for more than 24 hours before you make another bet. This is because if they find ANY WIN during the previous 24 hours, they will use that win to reduce your rebate on subsequent losses. In effect what they are doing is forcing you to spread out your bets over longer than a 24 hour period. And don't forget that two bet minimum totaling at least $1,000 to get the 10% rebate.

Now, let's see your math??


Let me correct your semantics, as I believe you misspoke.

The maximum bet on a game is $500.00, except blackjack where you can play two hands.
And I previously have mentioned that the rebate offer is for losses greater than $1,000, and than a loss of $500.00 - $999.00 is qualified to receive a 5% rebate.

And, if you play BJ @ $500 for your first hand when you first start to play, catch and split 8's, than catch a 2 and double after split on the first hand, and a similar double after split on the original split hand, and lose, you ARE qualified for a loss rebate on your total loss, in the example I just described, a total loss of $2,000.00 translates to a $200.00 rebate.

I have repeatedly indicated in this thread that the offer to received the rebate is once per 24 hours, and indicated that I would be playing at max level, fewest bets possible to qualify, either winning or losing $1,000 (or more) and quitting for 24 hours plus a few minutes. I outlined the qualifiers carefully, since I also telephoned a few days ago, and outlined my conversation with pit critter Tommy.

I think I was very clear with the information and outline I provided in this thread.

So, since my premise during this entire thread was clearly based on a result that was a "minimum" of $1,000 won or lost, to earn the maximum rebate if qualified, how does your message blow the math out of the water?

I admit it does affect the math some in the hypothetical results being discussed for simplicity, but not by enough to affect the potential profitability of the offer since the end result per day will always be + or - $1,000 or more, and than wait 24 hours for the next session.

And THAT is also the reason why I limited my musings to 100 "sessions", or 24 hour periods during this thread.

I have repeatedly mentioned that if I did this, it would be to exploit the offer, and done for profit from an "advantage players" approach. To maximize the rebate yet have a stop loss of $1,000 (and willing to lose more with doubles, splits, DAS, etc) or to win $1,000 or more. But to make, and play the fewest number of trials or decisions as possible for the maximum allowable.

You spoke, offered a challenge, and were responded too. You than changed the rules of your challenge. You were responded to and once again proven incorrect. Your challenge was not the Terrible's rebate offer, and I responded to what you offered, the way you offered it.

And yes, a single bet could qualify for a rebate. And when I spoke to a pit critter, I was told that a person did not need to qualify with hours of play, and that a person could make one wager, lose with a double on BJ and original bet of $500, therefor losing $1,000 and collect the rebate.

And the loss rebate would applies to total net losses. So if you take, or laid odds, those losses also apply.

Really?

YES, really.

Of course, a different pit critter may give different information. But when I telephoned, it boiled down to any NET loss of $1,000 per 24 hours would receive the rebate if asked for.





Once again, I telephoned Terribles, specifically asking about the loss qualifier, and spoke to a different pit critter than the other day. I confirmed my understanding of the offer and it's terms, conditions, and qualifiers.

I asked if I bet the DP at craps, and laid the odds, and lost $1,000 or more, on one hand, would I receive the rebate. YES.
If at BJ, and bet $500, doubled and lost a $1,000 on that hand? YES I would receive the rebate.

He went on to tell me that he probably gives 20 rebates per day on his shift. It was 7:30 am LV time when I telephoned.

And once again, outlined the "visit every 24 hours, win or lose $1K" and end the session, to return again next day scenario. And once again was told that player would be welcome.

Look -- your whole point is about this promotion. It's not about any bets with me. And this promotion is not what you think it is based on my conversation. So... Go there, bet and lose and see what you get. See if they offset your rebate with previous wins. See if you really get 10%. Go ahead, lose your money and see what you get.

My point is this and I stand by it: casinos don't lose money giving rebates on losses. And believe me-- they have this promotion structured so they can reduce the rebates you think you are going to get. And with the house edge on each bet -- and their offseting of the rebate with wins -- and with the limits on bets -- theyre not going to lose.

Sure, I'll take whatever challenge you want using the casino's rules. You go ahead and beat the casino at this promotion. Im betting on the casino.
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