Terrible's: Not so terrible opportunity, or not?

Do you stand by this statement or are you going to admit you were wrong?

You are correct. My point when starting this thread, is the loss rebate. I have actually spoken with Terrible's 3 different times, speaking with pit supervisors on two occasions, and asking every appropriate question related to the promotion, the qualifiers, and the scenario's as I have previously outlined.

I KNOW the promotion fine print, and have asked specifically many of the things you seem to have misunderstood.

They do offset your losses with wins, during a specific 24 hour period. So if you go on Monday and win big, and return on Tuesday, (more than 24 hours later) and lose $1,000, you WILL qualify for a rebate on your Tuesday losses. You may than return on Wednesday (again after 24 hours) and begin a "new session" again, and every subsequent 24 hours. Those are the "Rules", as I received them from Terrible's Pit Supervisors I spoke with. AND, I spoke with two different supervisors.

Since I am looking to "exploit" this offer, maybe I ask better questions and get better details than you do. They do not offset losses with wins, if those wins occurred more than 24 hours prior to the losses. The key point is 24 hours periods, starting when you begin betting.

I find it rather amusing that I have a different take on the rules of this than you do. I am not saying unequivocally, yet, that with the correct strategy and bets that this promotion will prove profitable to the player "long term".

But I am very clear on the promotion rules, stipulations, and qualifiers. Unless both pit supervisors, and the Player Club person I spoke with have all lied to me, and intentionally mislead me, there is NO DOUBT IN MY MIND that the rebate is paid. The rebate is 10% of your NET LOSSES during a 24 hour period of your choice if those losses are $1,000 or more. If those losses are $500 to $999, the rebate is 5%. But that is not an option with my scenario, and my hope that is offer is profitable long term.

There is no doubt in my mind that I can walk in, bet a $500 on Pass, or Don't Pass, take or give the odds so that my total bet on that one roll total $1,000 or more, and if I lose, I could ask for and receive a 10% rebate. I have asked about that specific scenario. And about return visits, again making one "play" (or more if 7, 11, or 12 are rolled)

There is no doubt in my mind that I could walk in, sit at BJ, bet $500.00 on one, or play two hands, split, DAS, double, and if I were to lose $1,000 or more on that one round, collect the rebate. Or I could sit and play several hands until a goal of $1,000 won or lost was reached. If a loss, I could collect a 10% rebate. I could collect a 5% rebate if I chose to stop, and lost between $500 - $999.00.

I am a casino "whore" who is always looking for opportunities that give the player the advantage, even if only temporary.

Match play coupons are a good example. I know that in the long run, I will be a significant winner by using them. But I do not continue to gamble when my advantage is gone.

This rebate program, to me, appears to be an opportunity for profit. I have repeatedly stated that it may not be in the long run. I have had difficulty "proving" the math, have sought advice from others better equipped and far more knowledgeable, to try to determine the EV of this offer, and the best strategies to exploit it, if it does have a +EV long term.

It may be that it only offers a short term +EV.

But I consider myself pretty damn knowledgeable when it comes to promotions and offers, and look at the EV to determine if it is worth the time and expense to participate. And before participating, I do the research and make certain I fully understand the terms and conditions.

I just do not understand how you can have a different understanding based on your brief single conversation. I have no idea whether you even asked the right questions. I know I did. More than once.

The casino could very well be making money with this offer. But they may not have any players that participate regularly who would take the approach I would, or have the ability, guts, discipline and perseverance to make the one, (or several if necessary) bets to maximize the potential win or loss rebate with the sole goal of profiting from their play.

It is possible I could be backed off, or banned after several sessions. That is their right.

But, in the beginning, I stand by what I have said. The offer should be profitable to a player willing to take the mathematically "correct" approach to gaining an advantage.

Whether that advantage is worth the time, effort, and energy to gain is another issue. Some people are delighted to "win" a few dollars, others scoff at the idea.

I do not believe you when you say: "My point is this and I stand by it: casinos don't lose money giving rebates on losses. And believe me-- they have this promotion structured so they can reduce the rebates you think you are going to get. And with the house edge on each bet -- and their offseting of the rebate with wins -- and with the limits on bets -- theyre not going to lose."

You are right, they will not lose in the long run, but only because all their customers will not take the correct approach. Perhaps many will think they do, but than, so do people who play VP according to strategy and math, until a special play comes along.

Did you really have to ask?

Road trip, this is one of the essential points which you got correctly: "The key point is 24 hours periods, starting when you begin betting."

Since your betting periods must be more than 24 hours apart (24 hours and one second) it requires multiple trips and it requires at least two bets. I was told the max bet in the casino is $500 for this promotion.

Yes, you might be collecting those rebates for each loss.

Now you are being forced to play a martingale over multiple days-- and the casino still has its edge on successive martingale bets. You are not flipping coins.

You dont live in Vegas, do you? Okay, how many days are you going to spend in Vegas, sustaining losses potentially of 900 per day, making any negative expectation bet, using a martingale? And what about the limit of $500 bets? What does that do to your potential martingale?

Regarding your challenge? Yes, I could lose based on your challenge. Please tell me what casino offers it and I will be there.

when is this offer getting reset for Dec ? ???

Again, I have repeatedly answered this. My answer is not going to change. To once again refresh your memory, and summarize what I've previously said:

The goal of each day is to bet the maximum allowed, ($500.00 per bet) and continue until either a win or loss of $1,000 (or more when proper plays result in larger wins or losses) results. IF a loss is incurred, the rebate would be claimed, and no additional action given for 24 + hours. If a win is incurred, no additional action would be given for 24 hours. This approach meets the qualifications of the offer, and allows for the 10% rebate to be collected.

All I originally wanted from this thread was the EV of this promotion for their BJ game which is 0.47% and suggestions for a proper strategy.

My original inquiry has not been answered "properly", yet.

And although many have said it it to the players advantage if properly approached, I am still not fully convinced, although I am leaning somewhat in that direction.

I seek facts, not rhetoric. I suspect my math may have been flawed. It is possible this is not a long term +EV offer. Unlikely in my mind, but possible. But the +EV could be very very small.

Eventually I will get better information, because I have sought the answers from those with a much better understanding of the odds, EV, distributions, etc than I have. And better math skills when it comes to game theory.

And when I get the accurate info on the EV of this promotion. Someone is actually running computer simulations with millions of trials to help determine the accurate EV for BJ, & for Craps. I may also be acquiring some software which would enable me to run the simulations.

I prefer not to guess, or make up answers that are not correct.



FYI:

Incidentally, and for simplicity I have not mentioned this before in this thread.

A player could walk up to the crap table, and buy/place all the numbers for $3200 ( $600 on the 6 & 8) with this promotion, if they so desired, or lay all the numbers up to the amount that they would receive the $3000.00 ($500 per number) payoff. I believe that is $6800 but not certain at the moment, and don't really care. I also confirmed this scenario with the pit critters, although it is not an approach I would use.

roadtrip, I dont want to discuss this anymore. I wish you the best. I hope you play at the casino of your choice and after two weeks they call you "Boss." But the only reason why I mentioned the $500 limit per bet is because early in this thread was the strategy of making a single bet for $1,000 per day. then I found out that the max bet was $500. that's all.

good luck. win a million.

Your EV is $40.12 per day. You will, on average, bet bet $2086 per day. I will re-iterate, EV is a constant, it is the same short term or to infinity. I don't need no stinkin' computer trials.

Perhaps not enough EV to warrant a trip to Vegas, and the risk-reward is high for other considerations.

But, if this promotion were available in many casino's, and the player had a sufficient bankroll to withstand deviation, it could certainly be a major advantage play, as long as it lasts.

IF I return to Vegas in 2011, it will definitely become part of my daily coupon runs.

"Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing." ... unknown

"You miss 100 percent of the shots you never take." ...Wayne Gretzky

What welfare check promotion are you referring to at Southpoint?

Rob