Vegas Free-for-All - Two Interesting Headlines related to Global Warming

chefantwon

Mar 25, 2015
11:04am

The Universe is somewhere in the neighborhood of 15+billion years old, the Sun about 4+ billion, the Earth 3.8 billion, mankind 2 million and measurable temp data a bit more than 100 years. Pj opined that this year was the warmest winter on record. In what state? The folks in Boston might have a few words to say about it.

Can PJ tell me what was the average temp on Dec 31 1 billion bc? How about a more modest 25,000 bc or maybe 1 bc?

Measurable data doesn't have much merit if the data points are grouped together in a very small sample size. (IE where the hell is the other 3.8 BILLION years of winter data?)

A bit of picture stuff, back in the 1600's the Thames was typically frozen over and people ice skated on it while attending a yearly festival. Does PJ remember watching news reports of people ice skating there, live?

Btw, how many US weather measuring stations are there in the US since the 1880's?

Boilerman

Mar 25, 2015
10:34pm

Block User

For some reason, climate nuts assume that increasing temperatures are bad. Does that mean that decreasing temperatures are good? Are we magically at the perfect temperature today?

History tells us that humanity flourished in times of warmth, and struggled during cooler times.

Quote

Originally posted by: chefantwon
The Universe is somewhere in the neighborhood of 15+billion years old, the Sun about 4+ billion, the Earth 3.8 billion, mankind 2 million and measurable temp data a bit more than 100 years. Pj opined that this year was the warmest winter on record. In what state? The folks in Boston might have a few words to say about it.

Can PJ tell me what was the average temp on Dec 31 1 billion bc? How about a more modest 25,000 bc or maybe 1 bc?

Measurable data doesn't have much merit if the data points are grouped together in a very small sample size. (IE where the hell is the other 3.8 BILLION years of winter data?)

A bit of picture stuff, back in the 1600's the Thames was typically frozen over and people ice skated on it while attending a yearly festival. Does PJ remember watching news reports of people ice skating there, live?

Btw, how many US weather measuring stations are there in the US since the 1880's?

hoops2

Mar 26, 2015
12:48am

Block User

According to liberals the optimal temperature was reached in 1880 and man has been destroying the climate since then.

Of course they get to pick what the optimal temperature is

Don

Mar 26, 2015
12:58am

Block User

DonDiego is neither a supporter nor a denier of Climate Change [the climate is always changing] or even Global Warming.

What DonDiego has counseled on the LVA Fora for pr'bly more than a decade is that there has been and is now no need for panic and irrevocable political decisions which might do more mischief than the climate change itself. And he has suggested that many of those in the forefront of defending the world against imminent destruction may have motives beyond humanitarianism, . . . like Government funding of their chosen vocation and even a desire to achieve political power and money based on generating undue fear. [DonDiego supposes the reader may know to whom he refers.]

So here's the bottom line.
Those advocating immediate and expensive global solutions base their decision on expected runaway temperature rise. These expectations are based upon climate models which assume that there is no negative feedback mechanism within the environmennt which can slowdown anticipated exponential rise in temperature, and that positive feedback mechanisms will lead to catastrophe.

However, the overwhelming majority of of the predictions of the aforementioned climate models have significantly overestimated the temperature rise.

The chart shows many of the available models (the lines) versus actual temperature data (the points).

It may well be that there are negative feedbacks within the Earth's climate which do slow, and in fact have slowed, the predicted temperature change. Something has anyway. DonDiego suggests again that thoughtful prudence remains preferable to distraught action.

Boilerman

Mar 26, 2015
1:06am

Block User

75 models, and 75 huge over predictions. Yet, the climate nuts tell me that I'm dumb for not believing those who've proven that they don't know their ass holes from a hole in the ground.

Quote

Originally posted by: DonDiego
DonDiego is neither a supporter nor a denier of Climate Change [the climate is always changing] or even Global Warming.

What DonDiego has counseled on the LVA Fora for pr'bly more than a decade is that there has been and is now no need for panic and irrevocable political decisions which might do more mischief than the climate change itself. And he has suggested that many of those in the forefront of defending the world against imminent destruction may have motives beyond humanitarianism, . . . like Government funding of their chosen vocation and even a desire to achieve political power and money based on generating undue fear. [DonDiego supposes the reader may know to whom he refers.]

So here's the bottom line.
Those advocating immediate and expensive global solutions base their decision on expected runaway temperature rise. These expectations are based upon climate models which assume that there is no negative feedback mechanism within the environmennt which can slowdown anticipated exponential rise in temperature, and that positive feedback mechanisms will lead to catastrophe.

However, the overwhelming majority of of the predictions of the aforementioned climate models have significantly overestimated the temperature rise.

jphelan

Mar 26, 2015
1:34am

Block User

Well said DD - I agree whole heartedly. If this makes me a denier, so be it. Maybe instead of calling people deniers, we should call Global warming zealots "alarmists".

pjstroh

Mar 26, 2015
2:49am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: Boilerman
For some reason, climate nuts assume that increasing temperatures are bad. Does that mean that decreasing temperatures are good? Are we magically at the perfect temperature today?

History tells us that humanity flourished in times of warmth, and struggled during cooler times.

Quote
Originally posted by: chefantwon
The Universe is somewhere in the neighborhood of 15+billion years old, the Sun about 4+ billion, the Earth 3.8 billion, mankind 2 million and measurable temp data a bit more than 100 years. Pj opined that this year was the warmest winter on record. In what state? The folks in Boston might have a few words to say about it.

Can PJ tell me what was the average temp on Dec 31 1 billion bc? How about a more modest 25,000 bc or maybe 1 bc?

Measurable data doesn't have much merit if the data points are grouped together in a very small sample size. (IE where the hell is the other 3.8 BILLION years of winter data?)

A bit of picture stuff, back in the 1600's the Thames was typically frozen over and people ice skated on it while attending a yearly festival. Does PJ remember watching news reports of people ice skating there, live?

Btw, how many US weather measuring stations are there in the US since the 1880's?

If rising sea levels wipe out entire countries like Vietnam is Boilerman going to embrace those refugees coming to AMerica? Can we use his thoughtful disposition on Mexican immigrants as a point of reference?
Its already begun in Bangledesh.
link

There is going to be huge political, geographic, economical, and ecological consequences resulting from climate change. The defense department already started planning for them under the Bush Administration even as that administration publicly touted he same BS we hear from our resident conservatives who measure climate change by looking out their window.

jatki

Mar 26, 2015
3:22am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: pjstroh
Scientists have measured this past Winter to be the warmest on record since temperatures have been recorded. But the chairman of the Senate Environmental committee chair (Jim Enhoffe) laughed it off by producing a snowball on the Senate Floor. The crux of his argument is that it snowed in the Winter time. This is the IQ brought to the debate by birthers.

I don't know but it was the coldest winter by far here in Va. Froze my ass off Jan-Feb.

forkushV

Mar 26, 2015
4:08am

Block User

Quote

Originally posted by: DonDiego
...However, the overwhelming majority of of the predictions of the aforementioned climate models have significantly overestimated the temperature rise.

The chart shows many of the available models (the lines) versus actual temperature data (the points)...

Ooh, impressive looking squiggly lines that came from an "independent climate researcher." You know what an "independent climate researcher" is? A guy with a blog! And - I kid you not - a tip jar on his homepage. Can't you just smell the scientific integrity?

Although at least this guy actually has a last name. And he has a penchant for writing open letters to celebrities like Lewis Black, George Clooney, and Jon Stewart. Although at least he didn't feel the need to put quotes around "Stewart" and point out that Jon's real last name is Cohen or Levy or Liebowitz or something like that. So good on him; maybe someone should donate to his tip jar.

Does DonDiego have the knowledge to evaluate his squiggly lines? No. Do I? Of course not. So, who ya gonna trust? Me I trust folks like the National Academy of Sciences. Or the American Meteorological Association. Or the American Geophysical Union. Or overwhelming scientific consensus.

DonDiego? He trusts the blogger who matches his pre-determined political position.

hoops2

Mar 26, 2015
4:27am

Block User

• In 1990, the IPCC’s mid-range prediction of the near-term warming trend was equivalent to 3.5 Cº per century.
• The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to 1.4 Cº per century – two-fifths of what the IPCC had then predicted.
• In 2013 the IPCC’s new mid-range prediction of the near-term warming trend was for warming at a rate equivalent to 1.7 Cº per century – just half its 1990 prediction.
• Though the IPCC has cut its near-term warming prediction, it has not cut its centennial warming prediction of 3.7 Cº warming to 2100 on business as usual.
• The IPCC’s prediction of 3.7 Cº warming by 2100 is more than twice the greatest rate of warming lasting more than ten years that has been measured since 1950.
• The IPCC’s 3.7 Cº-by-2100 prediction is more than three times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950.
• Since 1 January 2001, the dawn of the new millennium, the warming trend on the dataset of five major datasets is zero – 0.0 Cº per century. No warming for 13 years 3 months.

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