what is long term video poker play?

Is it true that to play for the long term you must play thru 19,933,230,517,200 hands?

No.

19,933,230,517,200 is just the number of different possible card combinations for a five card dealt hand from a 52 card deck. You could expect 440,202,756 natural royals if you played that many hands. It would take several lifetimes of constant play. Let us know when you get to your first billion.

I got that from the probability charts on Wizard of Odds. Please explain the definition of long term play if what the Wizard has is not it. Thanks.
I think alanleroy has made the point that long term play is impossible.

I just reached long term so there's no need now to record my play.



Don't even ask how many Sharpies and tablets I've used.

If you want to precisely hit the expectation of a game then mathematically you have to play an infinite number of hands. 19 trillion is not enough because you can repeat certain results and miss out on others. However, if you want a good chance of being within a few tenths of a percentage point, then the number of hands can be quite low (in comparison). For many games were talking just a couple hundred thousand hands. Something I play every year. Remember this page I have posted previously.

https://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO.htm

Actually I said nothing about 'long term play'. I said you couldn't play 19,933,230,517,200 hands in several lifetime. You're the one incorrectly equating 19,933,230,517,200 with 'long term play'. 'Long term play' is just the number of hands you'd have to play to approach a statistically normal result with a certain confidence level....it's far less than 19 trillion.

Gee, I'm getting conflicting info now:

alanleroy, the Wizard makes it very clear: to reach 100% certainty you have to play these 19-"gazillion" hands:

19933230517200 = 1.000000 is what he has on his probabity tables.

Now that seems to me to be "long term play" to reach what you guys have been talking about... 99.5% returns or 100.7% returns or whatever.

I guess what you're saying is that you can be "close" with a few gazillion less hands. OK. Thanks.

Arc, says you need an "infinite number" of hands... well that's even more than the 19-gazillion hands that the Wizard says.

I just want to be clear about what "long term play" is all about? Since "long term play" is such a vital issue in various regards.

The first thing to understand with statistics is nothing is 100% certain, hence the reason it takes an infinite number of hands to reach 100% certainty.

The wizard's 19 trillion number is just the total number of possible draw/deal combinations. Nothing in that number implies you won't see duplicates or miss out out some of them in normal play. It's just a mechanism for computing ER. You're getting hung up on the mathematics of doing computer analysis.

The reference I gave you shows the number of hands to have an 84% chance of winning money on a positive game. The equation is:

Variance/(er-1+cb)^2

So, for FPDW with .25% CB you have .... 25.8/(1.0076-1+.0025)^2 = 25.8/.0101^2 = 252,916 hands.

Arc, I appreciate your comment about "infinite hands" and I can accept that.

Your equation which adds in "cash back" has nothing to do with the question about the number of hands needed for long term play.

getting back to the Wizard: youve made it clear to me now that it takes at LEAST 19 trillion+ hands to see the long term. thanks.