What Would It Take???

A question that seems to be on a lot of people's minds is, "Are VP machine fair and random?"

I answered this particular question to my own satisfaction in the mid 90's when I had access to the enormous sample of hands that being a team manager afforded me. I do not expect anyone to believe me or take it on faith, and I'm a strong supporter of skepticism and personal discovery, so...

It seems like every time someone, anyone, makes a comment about machines not being random or merely shares their beliefs and observations in forum, someone else (myself included) chimes in and points out that their math is flawed, their sample is too small, or their conclusion are wrong. What almost never seems to get discussed is what would be correct math, a large enough sample and a proper method for reaching a good conclusion.

No one is going to be able to do it the way I did, so how then???

I'd like to start this thread specifically for the purposes of discussing what it would take to prove that machines are not fair and random or visa versa as the case may be:

1. What should one record and how?
2. What is a large enough sample? (And how to parse the sample.)
3. What math should they use to dismiss chance as the cause of their results?
4. And perhaps most importantly how do they make the information meet the standard of the scientific method, with peer review and replication of results???

If #4 is not met any study done will only succeed in convincing the person doing the study.

What's been offered so far hasn't convinced anyone that wasn't already convinced and isn't likely to start convincing people anytime soon. What we need is a simple detailed template of the steps required that anyone can follow and prove it to themselves, one way or the other.

I can think of no better way to spend our time on a VP related forum than working on this problem and resolving it once and for all.

And please note: There should be no need for argument in this thread about whether or not VP machines are fair and random. That would be a conclusion. This thread is not about conclusions, it's about how to formulate them.

I'll get you started...

Start with a Hypothesis..."VP Machines are Random. A null Hypothesis: "VP Machines are not random" and an Alternate Hypothesis: "VP machines are rigged"

I don't think you're going to get enough VALID participation to reject the null hypothesis with any level of confidence. You could ask everyone to record how often they hit the royal when drawing one..that's easy to remember and record....but does it really give us the ammo we need to reject the null hypothesis? What if the machines are rigged to give fewer high pairs than expected?

Perhaps there's a way to back into it. Don't casinos publish some statistics on the take of various games? Can this be extrapolated to prove randomness? If you had Coin-In, Payouts and average deviation from perfect play you'd be there. Maybe.

The real questions are:
1. Can they be gaffed;
2. Have they ever been gaffed;
3. Is the vague "loss of license" threat an absolute deterrent.

1. Of course they CAN be technologically gaffed-I think no one disputes this. As easy as switching an 8-5 chip for a 9-6 trip.
2. Yes they have. You yourself Frank once talked here or on Vpfree about irregularities from the Riviera or Sahara and that you spoke to someone and it was straightened out. Secondly-google Larry Volk- and see how hundreds of casinos swindled tens of thousands of people out of millions of dollars-with no sanction from Gaming. Or the Venetian gaffing drawings-with no loss of license. Or my daddy's advice that "where there is money there is cheating".
3. No casino has EVER lost their license for cheating customers. Not the Venetian. Not the Larry Volk casinos. Not anybody. By the way has ANY ONE here ever seen statistics from Gaming telling us how many VP machines they physically opened up last year (or any year) to confirm the kosherness of the chips? Me neither-and I've looked every inch of the internet.

I've seen too many people go on royal droughts of 200K hands or more and lost a bundle. Funny how none of the "Miilion Dollar Video Poker" people ever sell or even talk about the book "License to Steal : Nevada's Gaming Control System in the Megaresort Age" which details how casinos have cheated with near impunity. I was lucky enough to be a net winner over 25 years-and have a whole lot of fun doing it while soaking up everything Nevada, AC, Monte Carlo, Biloxi, Foxwoods, Mohegan and other spots in Europe had to offer..
No more AP for me baby. I play my quarter FPDW or NSUD nice and slow and enjoy those Manhattans and B & B on the rocks.

WISH LIST: Here's what I'd like to see us come up with.

1. The method needs to be completely nonpartisan, unbiased and impartial. In other words it can't be a method for proving machines are random, and it can't be a way to prove they are not. It must have an equal chance of proving either side correct, regardless of which one is.

2. It should be easy enough for anyone, even someone on the low end of math savvy to employ. (I'm considering coding it into a spread sheet and sharing it for free of course.)

3. It should not take a ridiculously large sample of hands to work. It should be something pros and recreational players could both do in perhaps a month (At most) (Less would be better).

4. It should provide 99% certainty.

5. It should work for any game.

6. It should be strategy independent. (Perhaps based on dealt hands and not made hands???) This would keep the human element out of the equation.

I'm hoping our resident math gurus chime in and help.

I don't think you have a good feel for what I'm going for here. I'd like a simple book keeping method and perhaps spreadsheet utility that people can use on their own records (hopefully not a massive sample) to see if chance alone is the most likely explanation for their results, or tell them something is amiss if chance alone isn't the most likely culprit.

You have hypotheses on what you believe to be true, that's fine, but it's off topic. What I'm looking for is ways to prove hypotheses, whatever they may be...and by "ways" I mean something doable for the everyman that doesn't require them believing what someone else tells them. A pre-packaged do-it-yourself scientific home test for VP fairness. That's the goal, lofty though it may be.

At no point in this thread do I want to discuss the fairness of machines. I just want to come up with a simple method for people to test it all by their lonesomes.

First off: what I'm looking for is something for individual to use themselves if they want to.

Second: I'm not trying to prove anything, so no participation is required, except to help me come up with a method.

Thirdly: If you know how to get your hands on casino statistics let's have a look, but again I'd rather this be a method for people to look at their own personal play and draw conclusions from it.

"First off: what I'm looking for is something for individual to use themselves if they want to."


That doesn't and can't exist Frank. That's why we have Gaming.
Why doesn't Gaming partner with you, the LVRJ or somebody and open up a couple of hundred machines to check the chips all in one fell swoop?
At least bust open those progressives at MGM which haven't hit in the 20 years they've been there.

We do know this much: VP machines, keno machines and drawings have provably been gaffed and no one was prosecuted or lost their license. That alone should be enough to dissuade any fool who is thinking of selling his house moving to LV and becoming a "Million Dollar Video Poker" player.

Well the problem is that any method you come up with needs to have underpinnings in statistics...In order for you to set a sample size and have confidence levels and establish the power of the test, you need to to start with the basics....Hypothesis, Null Hypothesis, Alternate Hypothesis, listing out your assumptions. Even if you can dumb the whole thing down to people recording a few things about their actual play, the basis of your conclusions have to be grounded in something...that's why you should start with the basics....but given that, How about the total number of hands vs number of dealt winning hands. That would give you the info you needed....

Or maybe Dealt Hands without a Face Card vs # of Dealt Hands. That would then be game independent. 25.31812725090036 times out of 100. Or about 1 in 4 is what we'd expect.

The test for random sequences has been developed and is readily available. See, e.g. Statistical Theory and Methodology... by K.A. Brownlee.

https://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Methodology-Engineering-reprinted-corrections/dp/0898747481

1. Well I know it doesn't exist, but I think it wouldn't be impossible to create. You might be right, but I hope you aren't since I'm trying to create just that. If it is impossible then I see a lot of wasted time in my future.

2. Because at the end of it what we would have is yet another study done by someone else, in this case me, but that's irrelevant. I might succeed in proving the issue to myself, but I don't expect that to prove it to anyone else...and if we are being honest I don't really want it to. I am pro-skepticism and pro-self-discovery.

3. I have no knowledge of these, nor is it on topic.

4. Casinos and game manufactures have been prosecuted and have lost their licenses for gaffing machines, but again that's nothing I want to discuss here. I'd just like to come up with a do-it-yourself home test people can use on their OWN results.

Proving whether or not machines are fair and random is not something I'm interested in doing at this time. I would like to discuss the METHOD for proving it on a individual and personal level one way or the other. I'll leave the conclusions to others.

~FK