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Why play for the long term when...

Jennifer
Jennifer
May 25, 2011
10:48pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: DonDiego
What an excellent idea ! ! ! DonDiego wonders why no one has ever thought of it before.


i dont type "lol" very often because im not a twelve year old girl texting on a sidekick, but this literally made me laugh out loud.

arcimedes
arcimedes
May 25, 2011
11:05pm
Block User
Playing 9/6 or 9/5 DDB the returns for holding a single high pair vs. two pair are: 7.24 vs. 8.40

You are giving up 1.16 credits each and every time you make that choice. For $1 VP the cost is $1.16.

You are dealt two pair once every 21 hands. In each of these either pair could be a face card with a non-ace pair about 1 out of 4 times. So, about once in every 84 hands you get this choice. That's a loss of $1.16 for every $420 gambled.

Overall this costs about .28% of your ER. That reduces 9/6 DDB from 98.98 to 98.7% all by itself. Whether one considers that a worthwhile gamble for the opportunity to hit one extra 250 credit 4oak every 30K (360*84) hands is clearly up to the person gambling.
snidely333
snidely333
May 25, 2011
11:10pm
Block User
How did you calculate that?
arcimedes
arcimedes
May 25, 2011
11:13pm
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Quote
Originally posted by: MoneyLA
Is it true that the only VP game in which you don't hold two pair is deuces wild?


You hold two pair if the FH and 4oak pay the same. If 4oak pays more you don't hold two pair.

In 6/5 DDB the difference between two pair and holding a high pair is only .045 credits. So, if the 4oak had a progressive meter it would almost always be correct to hold only the high pair.

In 6/5 and 7/5 DD Aces and Faces the correct hold would always be the high pair. So, it's not just Deuces games.

arcimedes
arcimedes
May 25, 2011
11:20pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
How did you calculate that?


Not sure which calculation you mean. The returns for the two holds I got from winpoker. The 21 hands I got from the website:

https://videopoker.fws1.com/5-cards-dealt.htm

The rest of the stuff is pretty straight forward. There are 12 non-Ace cards and 3 of them are J-K. That's how I came up with the 1 out of 4 number. The .28% is computed as 84*5 (total dollars bet) divided into $1.16 (the loss by keeping only the high pair.

arcimedes
arcimedes
May 25, 2011
11:24pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: arcimedes
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
How did you calculate that?


Not sure which calculation you mean. The returns for the two holds I got from winpoker. The 21 hands I got from the website:

https://videopoker.fws1.com/5-cards-dealt.htm

The rest of the stuff is pretty straight forward. There are 12 non-Ace cards and 3 of them are J-K. That's how I came up with the 1 out of 4 number. The .28% is computed as 84*5 (total dollars bet) divided into $1.16 (the loss by keeping only the high pair.


Upon further consideration the 1 out of 4 number is probably not quite right. Since there's two pair to consider the calculation is a little more complicated.

Also, the 21 hands contains those with aces so the real number is probably a little higher.
Don
Don
May 25, 2011
11:36pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
Although a better question is: if the game is long term negative why play it at all?
Just so.

The optimal strategy for a game with a negative expectation, . . . i.e. the way to minimize one's negative expectation, . . . is for the player to estimate how much money he is likely to wager on this game over his lifetime, and accumulate this amount, and make a single wager, . . . and then stop.
Of course, the variance inherent in this strategy is significant.

snidely333
snidely333
May 25, 2011
11:43pm
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: DonDiego
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
Although a better question is: if the game is long term negative why play it at all?
Just so.

The optimal strategy for a game with a negative expectation, . . . i.e. the way to minimize one's negative expectation, . . . is for the player to estimate how much money he is likely to wager on this game over his lifetime, and accumulate this amount, and make a single wager, . . . and then stop.
Of course, the variance inherent in this strategy is significant.


But doing it this way, you still only get one free cocktail. The free cocktails are what turns a long term negative EV game into a +EV game for me. The key is to play at the lowest denominations and at casinos that will comp you the cocktails.
alanleroy
alanleroy
May 26, 2011
12:15am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
Quote
Originally posted by: DonDiego
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
Although a better question is: if the game is long term negative why play it at all?
Just so.

The optimal strategy for a game with a negative expectation, . . . i.e. the way to minimize one's negative expectation, . . . is for the player to estimate how much money he is likely to wager on this game over his lifetime, and accumulate this amount, and make a single wager, . . . and then stop.
Of course, the variance inherent in this strategy is significant.


But doing it this way, you still only get one free cocktail. The free cocktails are what turns a long term negative EV game into a +EV game for me. The key is to play at the lowest denominations and at casinos that will comp you the cocktails.

Exactly right. I call it AEV (Alcohol Expected Value) And to further the Snidely Strategy, one should try to select casinos that comp premium booze. Top shelf hootch vs rot gut is the equivalent of 9/7 JOB vs 8/5. Snidely, maybe you could invent a Drinking Man's VP jackpot...When you hit a Royal, you get a shot of Henry VIII as a bonus....Or maybe everyone playing the progressive get's a super premium shot of their choice..

fedomalley
fedomalley
May 26, 2011
12:36am
Block User
Quote
Originally posted by: alanleroy
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
Quote
Originally posted by: DonDiego
Quote
Originally posted by: snidely333
Although a better question is: if the game is long term negative why play it at all?
Just so.

The optimal strategy for a game with a negative expectation, . . . i.e. the way to minimize one's negative expectation, . . . is for the player to estimate how much money he is likely to wager on this game over his lifetime, and accumulate this amount, and make a single wager, . . . and then stop.
Of course, the variance inherent in this strategy is significant.


But doing it this way, you still only get one free cocktail. The free cocktails are what turns a long term negative EV game into a +EV game for me. The key is to play at the lowest denominations and at casinos that will comp you the cocktails.

Exactly right. I call it AEV (Alcohol Expected Value) And to further the Snidely Strategy, one should try to select casinos that comp premium booze. Top shelf hootch vs rot gut is the equivalent of 9/7 JOB vs 8/5. Snidely, maybe you could invent a Drinking Man's VP jackpot...When you hit a Royal, you get a shot of Henry VIII as a bonus....Or maybe everyone playing the progressive get's a super premium shot of their choice..


I wonder if the Snidely Strategy has any "special plays" that he's willing to share? I think there's a book deal, a website and the distain of literally thousands of people on this site that'll go along with it.....oh wait, that's been done already! Maybe you can get a new screen name....you know....like with a pseudonym....how does the name Song&Dance sound?

For giggles I was thinking of just trying this once....sit at a 100 line multi denom machine that offers penny play and play one coin, one line. With my luck, I'd get a dealt RF. I know some places look at it hard before offering cocktails....Hard Rock comes to mind. Tons of young people who drink hustle. The cocktail waitresses are on to them.

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