Will someone explain to me...

why Wall Street is doing so well in spite of soaring gasoline prices and the general gloom-and-doom being spread by the likes of DonDiego? (nothing personal, DD, you are a likable person)
Quote

Originally posted by: INdianapaddler
Will someone explain to me . . . why Wall Street is doing so well in spite of soaring gasoline prices and the general gloom-and-doom being spread by the likes of DonDiego? (nothing personal, DD, you are a likable person)
Why yes, . . . yes, someone will, . . . and it is DonDiego himself.

[n.b.The reply to INdianapaddler's inquiry is not intended to be political; no one political entity is to blame; if the reader objects to the facts, DonDiego has no remedy. If the reader cannot believe it, DonDiego understands. That's the thing about "magic".]

o. BigBanks behaved badly for a long time. The collapse of 2008/2009 left BigBanks in perilous condition. Someone had to come to the rescue.

i. Someone did. The Federal Government bought a lot of the "toxic assets" which had been on the Wall Street Banks balance sheets; that's what the TARP "Bank Bailout" was all about. The Government, i.e. the taxpayers, paid full-price for mortgages and other loans most unlikely to return full value. The Banks are no longer on the hook for these bad loans. The taxpayer is.

ii. The Federal Reserve's "low-rate policy" now allows BigBanks to borrow money from the Federal Reserve Discount Window at very-near zero%. Banks can then buy US Treasury Bonds yielding ,say, 3% to 3.5% or so with no risk, so long as the US Government is solvent.

iii. The BigBanks, while collecting 3% to 3.5% on the Treasuries, can then leverage this income by also using the Treasuries as collateral for whatever deals they enter into. Zero interest loans parlayed with 3% interest bonds leveraged by collateralizing the bonds means Wall Street is doing well, indeed.

iv. But, back to that Federal Reserve Discount Window thing, . . . where does that money come from? (Hmm, . . . this is where the real magic happens.) The Federal Government issues bonds to pay for things for which it doesn't have the money. Normally BigBanks and Foreign Sovereign Banks and Big Investors of all types buy these bonds; but lately the demand for these financial instruments has been lagging a mite; there's so many out there already and as the dollar is falling the value of the bonds is questioned by potential buyers. S-o-o-o-o, the Federal Reserve buys lots of these new bonds; and once the bonds are on the Fed's balance sheet the Federal Reserve can then, . . . this is where the magic comes in, . . . create money out of thin air. This, in fact, is one of the Federal Reserves main functions - controlling the money supply. This is the money the Fed loans to the BigBanks at near zero%

v. Money out of thin air means prices go up; this is essentially the definition of inflation. The stock market may well be rising mostly based upon the increasing money supply; DonDiego and the reader should find out for sure if/when it slows or stops. Anyway, for now the banks' stock market investments are rising too.


About this time, the thoughtful reader might be wondering how he can partake from this horn of plenty.
Well, here's the recipe:
*First, make lots of questionable loans to lots of untrustworthy borrowers.
*Second, become too big to fail.
Or it could be that regular people are putting money into companies they believe in. With banks paying around 1% interest, mopney that would normally be in CDS has to go somewhere, and stocks are percieved as the best option right now.
Where do you want your money? A bank that gives you 1%? In real estate? If your answer is no, then your options get fairly limited and stocks become more viable.
With the growth of low cost do it yourself internet web trading sites like mystock.com and others,buying and selling stock is cheap and easy.
One might also argue that equities became undervalued at the time of the panic of 2008 and the growth in stock prices reflects a return to more normal market valuations.

Quote

Originally posted by: DonDiego
Quote

Originally posted by: INdianapaddler
Will someone explain to me . . . why Wall Street is doing so well in spite of soaring gasoline prices and the general gloom-and-doom being spread by the likes of DonDiego? (nothing personal, DD, you are a likable person)
Why yes, . . . yes, someone will, . . . and it is DonDiego himself.

[n.b.The reply to INdianapaddler's inquiry is not intended to be political; no one political entity is to blame; if the reader objects to the facts, DonDiego has no remedy. If the reader cannot believe it, DonDiego understands. That's the thing about "magic".]

o. BigBanks behaved badly for a long time. The collapse of 2008/2009 left BigBanks in perilous condition. Someone had to come to the rescue.

i. Someone did. The Federal Government bought a lot of the "toxic assets" which had been on the Wall Street Banks balance sheets; that's what the TARP "Bank Bailout" was all about. The Government, i.e. the taxpayers, paid full-price for mortgages and other loans most unlikely to return full value. The Banks are no longer on the hook for these bad loans. The taxpayer is.

ii. The Federal Reserve's "low-rate policy" now allows BigBanks to borrow money from the Federal Reserve Discount Window at very-near zero%. Banks can then buy US Treasury Bonds yielding ,say, 3% to 3.5% or so with no risk, so long as the US Government is solvent.

iii. The BigBanks, while collecting 3% to 3.5% on the Treasuries, can then leverage this income by also using the Treasuries as collateral for whatever deals they enter into. Zero interest loans parlayed with 3% interest bonds leveraged by collateralizing the bonds means Wall Street is doing well, indeed.

iv. But, back to that Federal Reserve Discount Window thing, . . . where does that money come from? (Hmm, . . . this is where the real magic happens.) The Federal Government issues bonds to pay for things for which it doesn't have the money. Normally BigBanks and Foreign Sovereign Banks and Big Investors of all types buy these bonds; but lately the demand for these financial instruments has been lagging a mite; there's so many out there already and as the dollar is falling the value of the bonds is questioned by potential buyers. S-o-o-o-o, the Federal Reserve buys lots of these new bonds; and once the bonds are on the Fed's balance sheet the Federal Reserve can then, . . . this is where the magic comes in, . . . create money out of thin air. This, in fact, is one of the Federal Reserves main functions - controlling the money supply. This is the money the Fed loans to the BigBanks at near zero%

v. Money out of thin air means prices go up; this is essentially the definition of inflation. The stock market may well be rising mostly based upon the increasing money supply; DonDiego and the reader should find out for sure if/when it slows or stops. Anyway, for now the banks' stock market investments are rising too.


About this time, the thoughtful reader might be wondering how he can partake from this horn of plenty.
Well, here's the recipe:
*First, make lots of questionable loans to lots of untrustworthy borrowers.
*Second, become too big to fail.


So, poor old DonDiego knows all of this, and the poor suckers pouring money into stocks and bonds and wall street do not? Unfortunate.

Actually, most of the big bank money that was loaned out from the tax payers has already been paid back with interest. It is a different story for the Mortgage Insurers who are no more likeable.

But that is irrelevant to Paddler's question - the answer to which is simple:

Banks invest in the world economy which is booming. Citizens of the US work in the domestic economy which isn't. Banks can make billions of dollars off COnstruction projects in Beijing. But those Construction projects dont employ US construction workers.
Corporate earnings are very good right now,and they have huge amoumts of cash on hand. Fixed costs are way down because of the cutbacks, and sales are up because all corporations are multi-national.If things aren't great here, there are China, India,and Brazil to pick up the slack. bob
Agreed on a couple points. The market went through a knee-jerk reaction in 2008 and dropped well below what it should have to self-correct. We are now at the approximate point where the market should have been if the pre-2008 growth would have been healthy.

The Fed keeps printing more money and USA credit is horrible. The dollar isn't worth much compared to some currencies in the world - compare the US dollar to the Euro - the same Euro that years ago many were confident was going to go under. Where the US dollar compares is scary stuff. Takes more of the US dollar to buy things from overseas - big reason gas prices are so high.

I fear the continued rise in gas prices will tip the very fragile US economy over into a dramatic downward spiral. We don't need anymore politicians trying to fix this mess as they continue to add fuel to the fire. We now need true leaders. Let logic rule.
Quote

Originally posted by: INdianapaddler
So, poor old DonDiego knows all of this, and the poor suckers pouring money into stocks and bonds and wall street do not? Unfortunate.
Quite the contrary, . . . DonDiego has already poured most of his money into stocks as well. And his investments are all doing very well, indeed. He has concentrated on gold mining, agriculture/fertilizer/food processor and coal/oil companies, . . . all of which will prosper in inflationary times. He is making money faster than at any time in his life! Faster than when he held a full-time job!

DonDiego holds no bonds; he expects interest rates to rise eventually, and bondholders will suffer losses.

But hey! INdianapaddler asked a question and DonDiego answered it as best he could. Why is INdianapaddler mocking poor old DonDiego. DonDiego is offended.
The BigBankers and DonDiego and lots of investors are making lots of money. Laissez le Bon temp rouler!

DonDiego notes that during the debacle in the Zimbabwe currency, the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange was the best performing stock market in the world, . . . but only in terms of the Zimbabwe Dollar. DonDiego suggests one consider diversifying one's investments.
Here's an example why: DonDiego's gold mining company is in Canada. But it is traded on a Canadian Exchange in Canadian Dollars and on a US Exchange in US Dollars. Over the last 3-months the stock on the Canadian Exchange has risen about 92% or so (in Canadian Dollars); on the American Exchange it has risen 100% (in US Dollars). DonDiego is benefitting from the exchange rate as well as the stock price.

Here's where the Gloom and Doom comes in:
The problem will come when the Quantitive Easing, as described above, ends and interest rates rise. And then the economy goes into the tank.
Or the problem will come when Quantitive Easing is continued, and interest rates remain low, and inflation arrives in force.

Here's a simpler explanation of Quantitive Easing and how the BigBanks are "doing so well": Quantitive Easing Explained
If INdianapaddler has offended DonDiego, he begs forgiveness. It was not his intention. INdianapaddler is also poor and old, and his investments are not doing nearly as well as DonDiego's. As a matter of fact, when INdianapaddler retires, it may be to the hills of Appalachia to hunt possum to eat, where he may run into DonDiego and shake his hand.
Already a LVA subscriber?
To continue reading, choose an option below:
Diamond Membership
$3 per month
Unlimited access to LVA website
Exclusive subscriber-only content
Limited Member Rewards Online
Join Now
or
Platinum Membership
$50 per year
Unlimited access to LVA website
Exclusive subscriber-only content
Exclusive Member Rewards Book
Join Now