Super Bowl
The Super Bowl line opened Seattle Seahawks -4.5 over the New England Patriots, quickly moved to -5 and touched -5.5 before settling back at Seahawks -4.5, where it closed. The total opened at 46 and went to 46.5, then dropped to 45 at game time. When Seattle won 29-13, Seahawks and under bettors got the money.
Nevada Win—Nevada sports books won $9.9 million; however, it was a big drop from last year’s record $22.1 million. The decline was primarily the result of a betting handle of just $133.8 million, the lowest since 2016.
U.S. Handle—The American Gaming Association estimated before the game that $1.76 billion would be bet legally in the U.S., a 27% increase over last year. We haven’t seen a number reported, but that sounds unlikely given the Nevada result, unless the rise of the prediction markets had an effect.
Prediction Markets—Last year we called them exchanges. Now they’re the apparently more palatable prediction markets. Regardless, as we predicted in last year’s Super Bowl summary, market-based wagering was much more prominent this year. The major players were Kalshi and Polymarket, with some reports indicating that Kalshi had more than $1 billion in trading volume the day of the game, a 2,700% increase over last year. Some of Las Vegas’ traditional bookmakers cited the prediction markets as prime culprits in the decline of Nevada’s numbers.
Reduced Juice—South Point and Boomer’s dealt -105 for bets on the side only.
Props—The proposition bets again took center stage, with the different sports books and prediction platforms battling it out to be first and most compelling. Even the Westgate SuperBook moved up its prop reveal by a day to Wednesday the week before the game, though it didn’t matter, as multiple online platforms had already put up their numbers. Bettors backing the QBs to win the MVP were disappointed, as it went to Kenneth Walker III at 8-1, the first running back to win MVP since Terrell Davis in 1998. A.J. Barner scored the first touchdown at 14-1. The Pats’ Drake Maye looked dead in the water for reaching his passing-yards total of 224.5 when he threw for just 48 yards in the first half, then went wild in catch-up mode for an easy over of 295. Despite five field goals being kicked, all by the Seahawks’ Jason Myers, the longest was only 41 yards, which was a loser by 1 vs. total points scored in the game. There were no overtime and no safety, which were lined at -1100 and -1000, respectively. “Will the final score match a previous Super Bowl” was a No, cashing at -375. We saw the coin toss lined at -101 on both sides at a couple of books. In cross-sports props, the Knicks’ Karl Anthony Towns, averaging 19.9 points per game, scored only 11 vs. the Celtics to lose to the Patriots total points; Scottie Scheffler’s 4th-round score in the Phoenix open crushed Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s receiving yards straight up, 64 to 27 (and JSN was -23.5); and Real Madrid scored two goals vs. Valencia to beat Sam Darnold’s one TD pass, bumming out those who bet the tie at +350 on a 3-way line. Among the crazy offshore props, there were no “doinks” on kicks (-800); Bad Bunny’s first song during the halftime show was “Titi Me Pregunto” (-250); he didn’t come out in a hat (+150); Dave Portnoy was not removed from the stadium (this was a Yes only prop at +1000 and +2000 if he was dragged or handcuffed); replacing the Kelce/Swift proposal prop, Stefan Diggs did not propose to Cardi B after the game (another Yes only prop at +1000); and the Gatorade poured over Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald’s head was yellow/green, paying +275. This year’s controversy was over the appearance of Cardi B, who was a dancer behind Bad Bunny. But did dancing and not singing qualify her as a “performer”? Some pointed out that she was mouthing the songs. Oy! It came down to semantics and interpretation of the rules and reportedly resulted in at least one complaint being filed against Kalshi with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A supposed leak of Charlie Puth’s rehearsal of the National Anthem resulted in the over/under prop plummeting from 1:59.5 to 1:56, but all the unders still won easily thanks to a quick-moving rendition that came in at 1:51.
Viewership—The game had an average of 124.9 million viewers, down 2% from last year’s record, but still the second highest ever. Data from Nielson indicates that the audience peaked at 137.8 million in the second quarter, .1 million more than last year.
Room Rates—The LV Review-Journal reported that Las Vegas’ average room rate over Super Bowl weekend was $138.88, about 25% below last year. The survey didn’t factor in resort fees.
YouTube Special—Our second annual Super Bowl special featuring Frank B. and Steve Fezzik on the LVA YouTube channel scored big for those that watched and followed, as the guys got just about everything right. We’re gonna try to get them together again this month before the NCAA Basketball Tournament.
Next Year—The futures line for next year’s Super Bowl has the Seahawks favored at 7.5-1, followed by the Rams at 8-1, the Bills at 11-1, and the Ravens at 13.5-1. The long shots are the Jets, Cardinals, and Dolphins, all at 250-1.
Gambling Notes
Jackpots—A player at the Venetian made the $5 side bet and was dealt a royal flush in spades on the Three Card Poker Millionaire Progressive to win $1,661,451. It was the 17th million+ jackpot since the progressive was introduced in 2018. A player at The Rose casino in Virginia won $1,014,879 on a 25¢ historical horse racing machine. It’s being touted as the largest ever HHR jackpot.
Circus Slots—In conjunction with the opening of its bingo room, the only bingo on the Strip, Circus Circus has installed coin-operated slots on the casino floor, joining Slots A Fun as the only casinos on the Strip to offer the vintage games.
Rio Keno—Along the same lines, the Rio has added live keno. When the room closes at 8 pm, you can continue to play on EZ Keno kiosks on the floor.
Plaza Livestream—The ever-creative Plaza has partnered with Vegas Live Casino Network (VLCN) to debut a live-dealer streaming channel where you can watch customers gamble, or gamble there yourself so others can watch you. The livestreams run Sun.-Thurs. from 1 to 7 pm and Fri. & Sat. from 6 pm to midnight. During off hours, you can watch archived videos. Check it out here.
Sports Books—A Caesars sports book has opened at the Resort at Summerlin (formerly Rampart). A Boomer’s Sportsbook is expected to open this month at the Bonanza in Reno. It will be the sixth of 12 planned. As an aside, in LVA and in our books, we’ve always used “sports book,” as in a “race and sports book.” However, “Boomer’s Sportsbook” is the official name of the company; hence, we use the single word Sportsbook in Boomer’s references.
WSOP 2026— The 57th annual World Series of Poker has released its schedule for this year’s meet. The 100 live bracelet events will be contested May 26-July 15, with the Main Event played July 2-13. The playing of the final table will be delayed for an as-yet unspecified period. The tournament will again be held center Strip, with events at both Horseshoe and Paris.
Video Poker Lost and Found
Tuscany has removed its 9/7/5 Double Bonus games, making the new best game in the casino 9/6 Double Double Bonus (98.98%) from 25¢ to $1. If you’re at the bar, you’ll have to settle for 6/5 Bonus Poker (96.87%).
If you want to play for ribs at Silverton (see dining), the good options are drying up. According to the online database vpFREE2.com, the best game remains 8/5 BP (99.17%) from 25¢ to $5, but the 8/5 BP progressives have been removed. The 7/5 BP progressives remain at 25¢ (breakeven $1,900), $1 (BE $7,525), and $5 (BE $37,600). All machines have been removed from the Mi Casa bar.
Also from vpFREE2, Green Valley Ranch has added $5 8/5 BP progressives at the bars in both high-limit rooms. The breakeven is $27,950.
There’s been a big change in the “Young @ Heart” promotion at Eureka. It’s no longer $25 in free-play for ages 55 and up. Now you have to earn 300 points to get into a drawing of one name once per hour to win $100 FP if you’re 55 and $50 FP if younger. The 300 points also earns a $10 food comp. You might back into it if you find a good progressive and want to play a while. If you’re 55, be sure to use the MRB offer for $10 in FP, and if you’re a new member, there’s also a play-$25-get-$25 bonus.
In addition to the play-$100-get-$20 deal that runs from 10 am to 4 pm at El Dorado Cantina Sunset and Cantina Sky Pointe, both also run a $500/$50 on Tuesdays from midnight to 8 am.
Though not confirmed at press time, every year the 6500 Tavern at Sammy’s Woodfired Pizza (6500 W. Sahara) runs a March Madness promo where everyone gets to pick a team in the tournament. It’s not first-come first-served to get the best teams; you simply pick the team you think will go furthest and get free-play every time it advances, up to about $150 for winning the championship. It’s an excellent freeroll and you can parlay with an instacomp for 50%-off food when you load a machine with $60 and play. If you’re not already a club member, there’s a $20/$20 sign-up bonus. These deals are also available at Sammy’s Tavern (1501 N. Green Valley Parkway).
Check out Bob Dancer’s Tuesday blog at LasVegasAdvisor.com.
These promotions change frequently, check for updated information here.
