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Poll : 05 April - 10 May 2017

Q:

The original suggestion by a Friend of LVA was to do a poll on card counting, but we thought that was a little narrow, so we opened it up to this survey on blackjack skills. There's a lot of debate in the market about how good blackjack players are, so we figured we'd get a good honest gauge of player bj expertise by running the question in the world's largest gambling poll. You may select as many choices as apply.

 

A:
1031 Total Votes
I play perfect basic strategy
22% (226)
I never play blackjack
19% (198)
I play the abbreviated basic strategy
13% (134)
I've read several books on card counting, but I haven't practiced enough for them to do me much good
9% (96)
I'm a dyed-in-the-wool seat-of-the-pants player (hunches)
7% (77)
I play my own version of basic strategy
6% (66)
I haven't memorized basic strategy, so I use a strategy card
5% (51)
I kinda watch for aces and high cards and move my bets accordingly
4% (40)
I've been backed off blackjack games at more than one casino
3% (36)
I keep the running count, but figuring the true count is a little beyond me
3% (34)
My advantage-play techniques are way beyond card counting
2% (25)
I've been read the Trespass Act and 86'd from at least one casino
2% (18)
I'm an expert card counter
2% (17)
I scout for and take advantage of hole-carding situations
1% (13)

Analysis

This was kind of a strange one all around. It was the transition poll between the old website and new; originally, you had to be logged in to vote, before we corrected that; and the statistics are ... ambiguous.

The first thing we see is that something like 25%-30% of respondents don’t even play the game. The poll says 22%, but the allowance of multiple selections depresses that number.

For the same reason, the 7% tally of those winging it from the seat of their pants is also understated, and we suspect grossly so, due to respondents either not wanting to cop to doing it, or more likely, not realizing that they are.

Not to cast aspersions on the 22% who claim they play perfect basic strategy, but ... according to play-of-the-public statistics and our own empirical evidence, this is also likely to be highly overstated. Perfect basic strategy isn't that easy to learn and apply, so the perception of playing perfectly often doesn't match the reality -- as expressed by the player who commented, "I play almost perfect basic strategy." That we can believe. It’s a fact that many players jump to counting cards even before they’ve completely mastered basic, which is a mistake.

On the other hand, 5% of respondents say they use a strategy card, which certainly bumps up the “perfect” total.

As for the expert players, we imagine the same 1%-3% answered the bottom six questions about card counting and advantage play. Even this low number seems somewhat inflated, although it could be a product of the caliber of player who comes to our website.

In summary, we’d guess that players have a generally inflated view of their playing abilities, a perception that casinos have nurtured and profited from for years. Props to the 9% of respondents who say they’ve read books on the game, but never got into it enough to achieve expert status, both for trying to improve and also realizing that simply reading one book does not an expert make.

Our somewhat skeptical stance notwithstanding, the results paint an interesting picture of a collective playing level that will sustain the game and allow casinos to continue offering it indefinitely.

Thanks, as always, to everyone who voted and left comments, which you can read below.

 

No part of this answer may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, without the written permission of the publisher.

Comments

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  • Ray Apr-05-2017
    ??? What is wanted here?
    Nothing quite fits, I play basic strategy to the best of my ability, I HAVE read and practiced card counting, but without the necessary practice to be great, but even so, my bankroll doesn't allow me to afford to vary my bets as much as would be needed to make the odds tilt in my favor.

  • Daryl Apr-05-2017
    Raysue305's comment
    I agree with raysue305's comment on how he plays.  I play that way also.

  • Texas Transplant Apr-05-2017
    Basic Strategy
    I tried counting but I am not persistent (smart?) enough to do it well.  Also it was too much work for me.  I don't gamble a lot and don't depend on gambling winnings. I want to enjoy my playing...but not be foolish about my bets.
    
     I quit trying to count and now play basic strategy but occasionally notice that when the aces, 10's jacks, etc. are coming out a lot I change my bet accordingly.

  • [email protected] Apr-05-2017
    Blackjack poll
    I clicked "I am an expert card counter" although expert may be a little strong.  I play the Uston simple plus/minus, I keep the running count, and convert to the true count, but I make only a few of the actual playing changes (like knowing when to stand on 16 vs. dealers 10, hitting 12 against a 4, etc.).  The biggest advantage, of course, is varying bet size.  I estimate that I have a 1/4 to 1/2% advantage over the house, which isn't much, but keeps me from being a loser!

  • Bill Levine Apr-05-2017
    Blackjack
    I am a recreational blackjack player.  I don't play enough to play perfect basic strategy, but I don't think I make a ton of errors.  I have a rough sense of high cards and Aces as well, if I am well rested and paying attention (definitely not all the time).  I don't vary my bet much, but will increase my base $5 bet to $8 to $15 if the deck seems favorable.  If I am playing blackjack, I am probably as interested in the entertainment and not losing my buy-in too quickly, to I am not interested making large bets and experiencing high variance.

  • Adam Cohen Apr-05-2017
    Old Timer
    I can play and do well with a simple KO system not advance it seems to keep me even and lets me have fun. I play for fun so much of the time I just use Basic Strategy and enjoy myself

  • Roy Furukawa Apr-06-2017
    Basic Strategy
    I voted for basic strategy using a strategy card, but splitting hands are what I usually forget (along with bringing my strategy card) and will usually just ask the dealer or the most astute player at the table that I know is using basic strategy. I usually progress my bets on wins and go back to the smallest bet when I lose which seems to work well for me. The worst thing to happen is when the deck goes win, lose, win, lose endlessly which can suck my session bankroll dry quickly, but thankfully that's not too common.

  • Dennis Eudaley Apr-06-2017
    BJ
    I used to play BJ w/ basic strat. down pretty well.  Would occasionally change my bet size slightly if deck warranted, but seldom changed holds.  I also occasionally used martingale, which I'm still convinced can work w/ BJ.  I agree it doesn't work w/ roulette, etc., but often in BJ, I'd have more money out  & have a BJ, & I'm only doubling when conditions are pretty highly in my favor.  I've asked a few times on various forums about this.  Never really seen Martingale discussed pertaining to BJ.  Actually, I'd kinda like to hear Munchkin's take on that.  Since I've discovered VP, very seldom play BJ. 

  • Roger Williams Apr-06-2017
    Blackjack
    I count cards but only change my bets and change basic strategy some of the time. Many times security people stand behind me, just to let me know not to go to far with my play. I am happy to play for comps and break even when gambling.

  • DAVID_JOHNSON Apr-07-2017
    basic strategy
    i play almost perfect basic strategy.

  • Dave Apr-07-2017
    No advantage for me
    Why no choice saying I'm an occasional/recreational player?
    Also, card counting seems too much like work, particularly since it provides a very slim advantage. 

  • [email protected] Apr-10-2017
    Reader poll - blackjack
    I play basic strategy; however I incorporate a betting strategy also designed to help catch winning run streaks.
    one unit, one unit, two units, two units, four units, four units, eight units, etc. I've never hit table max.  I find this works better then just increase your unit by one after every win. if you increase your bets you would could win, increase, lose - now down one unit.
    Obviously most of the time we are betting, 1, 2, 4 units.  However when hot streak hits - you don't sit there and bemoan the fact you didn't increase your bets.

  • Eric Wicklund Apr-12-2017
    Low roller beer drinker
    I'll only play games with decent rules and low table min.  I spread 1-3 unless I'm drinking, then maybe a little more.

  • Kevin McCormack Apr-13-2017
    Limited 3/2 Player
    I only play off strip 3/2 games

  • Christine Jakubek Apr-21-2017
    I want to enjoy playing and not get stressed by trying to count.  I still use the first strategy card I ever got on my first trip to Vegas in 1987.  My husband laminated it for me and I always have it when I am going to a casino.  Unfortunately if he is sitting next to me I ask him what to do and he gets PO'd knowing I should be checking my card. 

  • [email protected] Apr-21-2017
    Frank Venis 
    I play basic strategy when I am in Las Vegas twice a year.

  • Tim Risch Apr-23-2017
    Card Counting Died Long Ago
    I used be an AP in the late 70's and early 80's, but by the late 80's it just became too difficult for a single player to win without betting a huge amount on each hand and incurring huge risk. By then, the casinos were on to card counters and I wasn't interested in fighting the house thugs. So, I took up poker instead.
    
    I can still play basic strategy, but have lost the speed in counting needed for casino play.

  • Fumb Duck Apr-28-2017
    3:2 and easy parking
    I will only play 3:2 BJ and refuse to pay for parking. I will not play any of the variants like Super Fun (super fun for the casino) or Spanish.