Expert contributor Bob Dancer answers:
Your question is looking in the wrong direction. The amount of money you’ve won or lost in the past 15 minutes is no more relevant to whether you should play a particular machine than: Are you wearing thong underwear today? Or did your favorite candidate win the last governor’s election?
The decision on playing a machine should be based on the following five factors:
• How much does the machine return? For example, 9/6 Jacks or Better machines return 99.54%, 9/5 Double Double Bonus returns 97.87%, and full-pay Deuces Wild returns 100.76%. Each of these should be adjusted according to your accuracy level.
• What is the denomination of the machine? If you’re a nickel player, obviously you want to stay away from the $100 machines. And vice versa.
• How much does the slot club pay? Every slot club is different. Some give cashback (and you need to figure out how much). Some send you bounce-back cash in the mail (and you need to estimate how much). Some give you free hotel rooms. Some buy you meals (and you need to decide whether the food at that casino is appetizing), etc.
• What promotions are going on? Is it double-slot-club-points day? Do you get a drawing ticket for something valuable for every 500 points? Do you get a date with Paris Hilton if you hit a royal flush? (Can you get out of the date if you hit two royal flushes?)
• Can you afford the game? The issue of the exact amount of bankroll you need for a given game is complicated, both mathematically and psychologically, and will wait for another day. Experienced players know "about" how much they can lose in a session if things go bad, because they’ve played many times, and some of those times they've lost.
If the amount you’ve lost in the past 15 minutes comes close to wiping out your bankroll, then clearly you’re playing for stakes that are too high. And if it doesn’t affect your bankroll all that much, you’re left with the factors cited above of how much the game returns, how much the slot club pays, and what promotions are going on. If none of those things have changed, there’s no reason to believe that changing machines will affect anything relevant.
Finally, however, there’s the "chicken-soup" factor. Even though it doesn’t help to change machines, it doesn’t hurt either. If it makes you feel better to switch machines, go ahead and sit down somewhere else.
Bob is author of Million Dollar Video Poker, the Winner's Guides to Video Poker, and the novel Sex, Lies, and Video Poker.
