Contributing expert Fezzik writes:
First, let's distinguish between the money line (ML) and the run line (RL):
A money line is the most common baseball bet, where differences in the relative strengths of opposing teams are compensated for by the amount you wager. For example, you might bet $100 to win $105 on an underdog or lay $115 to win $100 on the favorite. With this bet, your team simply needs to win for you to collect.
With run lines, a pointspread is introduced (the added or subtracted runs) and the final score plus or minus the runs specified determines who wins -- just like points in a football game.
The fact is, 95% of the time you're better off playing a money line than a run line. The reason for this is that the house vig against a random bettor is often twice as high when betting run lines, since bettors typically have to play against the standard -110 pricing (20 cents total juice) when betting run lines but have easy access to "dime-lines," which is -105 pricing (10 cents total juice) with money lines.
Example: Run line (-110-style pricing): Reds +1.5 -160, Padres -1.5 +140 Money line (dime line = -105-style pricing): Reds +105 Padres -115
Whether betting the Reds or the Padres, the money line is the preferred bet here, as the "spread" between the take and lay prices is narrower.
Some bettors argue that you should use run lines on dogs where you think there's a good chance they may lose, but only by one run. The problem here is the data shows that when bookmakers convert money lines to run lines, they do an exceptional job of adjusting, simply by using a chart based on what teams are home/away and the total on the game. All things being equal, road teams in low-totaled games often lose by 1. But the books force the road-team bettors to pay through the nose for that extra 1.5 runs.
When looking at huge favorites (-200 and higher), run lines no longer carry the same clear disadvantage, since money lines are typically no longer offered with -1.05-style pricing and often you see even -120-style pricing on high favorites (40-cent-vig spreads).
Example: ML: Cards -240 Dodgers +200 RL: Cards -1.5 -110 Dodgers -110
Here an RL bet could well be the preferred side for either the Cards or the Dodgers vs. the ML.
The above are just guidelines. The best pros have charts, not so much on individual teams but rather on ML conversions to run lines based on the ML, who's home, and the game total. If the run line is mispriced at a select shop, at times the RL is superior.
Additionally, sometimes certain teams just gravitate to 1-run-victory games at home, like the Dodgers (when Eric Gagne was healthy and their all-star closer), so sometimes you need to look at individual team trends. But typically, the conversion chart is the way to go. Especially for non-pros, stick with the money line.
Fezzik is a professional gambler who hosts our popular (and free) message boards at fezziksplace.com. This year, after four consecutive winning seasons, he will be posting his picks here for free.
