Funny you should notice.
According to a recent research report by analysts at Deutsche Bank, Las Vegas could be in serious trouble in about ten years -- if the current rate of casino-hotel expansion continues at its current blistering pace.
The report "urges developers to be cautious when planning new rooms and suggests that tourism boosters do more to increase the number of people who come to Las Vegas by car."
Why? Because, just as you say, McCarran International Airport will soon, according to Deutsche Bank numbers, be unable to handle the annual increase in visitor volume -- in terms of both projected visitation and the number of new hotel rooms planned.
The analysts added up a total of just under 42,000 new rooms opening in the next five years. In order to fill them (along with all the old rooms), McCarran would have to be able to handle 46.6 million arrivals/departures, compared to the 44.5 million it handles today. (McCarran is the fifth busiest airport in the U.S.) The report extrapolates a 2.1 million shortfall in visitor volume in 2012, based on the airport's total capacity.
Five years beyond that in 2017, the shortfall grows to seven million. The year 2017 is the earliest opening date of the all-new county-funded airport, planned for Ivanpah Valley, 30 miles southwest of Las Vegas on I-15 between Jean and Primm, Nevada (see QoD 1/2/06). However, some pundits believe that 2017 is optimistic for a projected completion of the $4 billion project.
Airport officials argue that capacity is growing with demand, that the airport has been undergoing a program of continual expansion since 1981. Between 1981 and 2005, in fact, McCarran has tripled in size and there's no end in sight. Currently, Terminal Three, an entire new terminal for scheduled carriers, baggage claim, ticketing, and parking facilities, is on schedule for a mid-2010 debut. In addition, the D Terminal is adding nine gates that will come on line next year. Terminal One's aircraft apron and concourse are undergoing reconstruction. The entire airport roadway system will be improved concurrent with the development of Terminal Three. And, of course, the new rental-car facility is due to open any day now.
Still, there's no arguing that the airport is fighting an uphill battle with visitor volume. The number of passengers is expected to rise to more than 53 million per year by 2010; that's nearly nine million more than today. And Volume 71, Number 171, of the Federal Register, discussing the potential environmental impact of the Ivanpah Airport (on September 5, 2006) noted, "Although McCarran Airport will be able to accommodate passenger demand in the next few years with the planned expansion and development of new terminal facilities, parking lots, and roadways, FAA forecasts indicate that by the year 2015, activity at McCarran Airport will reach 706,684 annual aircraft operations (takeoffs or landings), representing an approximate 15% increase over existing operations. Without additional airfield, roadway, and terminal capacity, this level of operations would result in unacceptable levels of congestion and delay."
So. Yes, McCarran is congested throughout the year and getting more and more crowded all the time. And yes, given the current projections for visitor volume vis-a-vis the number of new hotel rooms planned for Las Vegas over the next five years, a shortfall in airport capacity could impact occupancy rates and the local economy.
But Las Vegas is nothing if not resilient, as amply demonstrated over the past 17 years of the current boom. And by hook or by crook -- improvements to interstate highways into the city; bullet trains from L.A. or even Chicago; an entirely new airport southwest of town; and other ideas that have yet to arrive -- if they come, this town will build it.
