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Question of the Day - 20 February 2007

Q:
With the rapid growth of Las Vegas, are there concerns that the city will reach a saturation point, bringing room rates, shows, meals, etc. prices down? What do you think that saturation point is?
A:

In 1955, the Riviera, the Dunes, the Royal Nevada, and the Moulin Rouge opened in Las Vegas. The old Last Frontier building was demolished as the new New Frontier building opened.

A year earlier, the Showboat had opened.

The 15-story Fremont was being built downtown; when it opened in 1956, the Fremont was the tallest building in Nevada. The Tropicana (1957) and the Stardust (1958) were under construction on the Strip.

1955 was the first major boom year in Las Vegas and people have been wondering if Las Vegas would reach a saturation point ever since. That was more than 50 years ago.

Las Vegas did go through some doldrums between 1973, when the original MGM Grand (now Bally's) opened, and 1989, when the Mirage launched the New Las Vegas. (The low point of the 16-year period was reached, in our opinion, on November 21, 1980, when 87 people died and nearly 800 were injured in the fire at the MGM Grand; see QoD 1/20/07.) But since the Mirage initiated the current boom, it's been full speed ahead and at this moment in time, not only is there no end in sight, but it all keeps getting grander and grander.

As for prices coming down, we think not. In fact, we've chronicled the rise, sometimes dramatic, in prices for many years. In Las Vegas, the demand is so strong that it's not only driving the supply, but the supply side can pretty much write its own ticket: $1,200 dinners for two; $450 for two good tickets to Celine Dion; $300 a night for a standard room at Wynn Las Vegas; $68 for two dinner buffets at the Wynn; $1,200 a square foot at Donald Trump's condo tower; and perhaps most amazing of all, $30 admission to the Playboy Club's casino.

Sure, there are still a few bargains left in Las Vegas; Las Vegas wouldn't be Las Vegas without a 99-cent shrimp cocktail or a $4.95 steak dinner. But a Las Vegas vacation for the typical tourist couple or family is getting as expensive as any other major urban destination in the country.

There's no predicting the future, of course, and a big downswing in the economy could be in the offing; if so, the conventional wisdom holds that Las Vegas will be one of the first places to suffer. But if things keep going the way they are, this place will continue to lead the country in growth, the way it has for decades.

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