We like this question for two reasons. First, it’s a succinct (and amazing) roundup of new Strip properties, under construction and planned, along with their vitals. And second, it’s a question that’s been asked, in one form or another, for more than 50 years (since, by our reckoning, 1955).
The year 1952 marked the first time that more than one major Strip hotel-casino opened in the same year. The Sahara and the Sands debuted, in fact, within two weeks of each other in December.
But 1955 was Las Vegas’ first true Big Bam Boom. That spring, the $10 million Riviera, the $6 million New Frontier, the $4 million Dunes, the $1.5 million Moulin Rouge, and the $2.5 million Royal Nevada opened in quick succession. In addition, the $4 million Hacienda and the $6 million Fremont were under construction, the former at the south end of the Strip and the latter downtown; they would both open a year later in 1956. Plus, the Tropicana was going up for an unheard-of $15 million and the Stardust was under way (it finally opened in 1958, with 1,000 rooms).
Coincidentally, and fortunately for history, one of the best books ever written about Las Vegas, Las Vegas -- Playtown U.S.A. by Katherine Best and Katherine Hillyer, was also written and published in 1955. Back then, the "two Katies" were asking the same exact questions about the nine new hotel-casinos opening in their own era, worth in total the outrageous sum of $50 million, with a whopping 2,300 or so rooms: Is Las Vegas overbuilt? How many visitors can be counted on to support this unprecedented growth? Where will all the employees live? When will the water run out? The only question they didn’t pose was about parking; the desert surrounding the Strip was still vast, though downtown was starting to become a bit congested.
Anyway, the same worries surfaced a decade later, when the Aladdin, Caesars, Circus Circus, Landmark, Four Queens, and the big International (now Las Vegas Hilton) were coming onto the scene. And again in 1993, when Treasure Island, Luxor, and MGM Grand all opened within six weeks of each other. And again in 1998, with the Reserve (Fiesta Henderson), Bellagio, Mandalay Bay, Paris, and the Venetian all opening in an 18-month span. Etcetera. Etcetera.
Which brings us to the latest Big Bang. It’s a monster, to be sure. Totals? From the above list alone, which doesn’t include neighborhood joints like Aliante Station and Cannery East, and a score of high-rise condos, it’s seven mega- and metaresorts opening in the next four years, worth $35.6 billion, with 75,100 jobs.
The answers, of course, remain to be seen; perhaps when our grandchildren are writing QoD, they’ll tackle a similar question and use the results of this "fourth wave" as an example.
But we can peer into our crystal ball and take a stab at it.
Parking. The trend is heading underground. Palazzo dug one of the great pits in southern Nevada history for its garage. The construction costs and complications of Cosmopolitan’s underground parking helped put it in financial straits. Meanwhile, Fontainebleau’s huge structure is already bugging the lower-floor residences of Turnberry Place next door. CityCenter has 18,000 spaces planned! All the parking lots of yesteryear will eventually become parking structures, both above and under the ground.
Getting Around. The express bus lane down the middle of the Strip will be built. The Monorail will be extended to the airport and downtown, as well as to the west side of the Strip and even into the suburbs. Taxis will proliferate -- the further Manhattanization of Las Vegas. Hell, maybe they’ll even build a subway system. But yeah, traffic’ll be ever more ferocious in the future than it is now.
Employees. Job seekers have been flocking to Vegas, pretty much non-stop, for decades. They’ll continue to flock to Vegas for decades to come. And why not? This is where the jobs are -- second-chance city. Not to mention a pleasing climate (nine months of the year, anyway), a reasonable cost/standard of living, no state income taxes, and amenities (and comps) galore.
Residences. The commuter area will spread far to the north and south. MGM Mirage already has Jean, 30 miles down I-15, wired for a huge new residential development. The new airport will be built nearby, with, perhaps, a high-speed train linking it to the city. Upwards of 15,000 houses in the valley are currently vacant and for sale. That won’t last. All of you QoDers who submit questions about Las Vegas’ real estate investment potential take note: Now’s the time. (See our Las Vegas Real Estate blog by Robin Camacho, linked from the home page.)
Water. If anything is certain in this world, what Las Vegas wants, Las Vegas gets. It’ll get the water. It’ll get it from Pahranagat Valley. It’ll soon be coming from Coyote Springs. It’ll buy more Lake Mead allotment from Arizona and New Mexico. A 1,000-mile pipeline from the watershed of British Columbia. A 1,500-mile pipeline from the icefields of the Yukon. A 300-mile pipeline from the Sea of Cortez, with desalinization plants along the way (sucking up fish in the process for all the new seafood restaurants…).
Alternatively, the whole thing could crash from the weight of its own bloat. If, for example, Las Vegas becomes gridlocked by traffic or faces a ruinous shortage of qualified personnel, or water shortages become common, or it takes eight hours a day to find a parking space, or gasoline rises to $10 a gallon, or the dollar for continues its slide into oblivion, or any number of potential disasters come to fruition, the current $35.6 billion could turn out to be a very bad bet indeed.
(In fact, Best and Hillyer, in Las Vegas -- Playtown U.S.A., weren’t too far off the mark, short-term anyway, when they questioned the efficacy of the 1955 boom. The Royal Nevada quickly went bankrupt; the Moulin Rouge closed for reasons unexplained; the Dunes failed and the casino closed for six months till it was resurrected; and the Stardust was delayed years due to death and taxes -- see QoDs 5/6-7/06.)
What do you all think? Got any predictions for how it’ll all transpire? Let us know. As always, we’ll compile and post them in an upcoming QoD.
