At the time when this question was submitted, a matter of weeks ago, the future still seemed relatively promising for the so-called bullet train. What a difference a few weeks can make. First off, for all who aren't familiar with this project, here's the background.
A group called the California-Nevada Super-Speed Train Commission (CNSSTC) was formed in 1988 with a vision of a 269-mile-long "bullet" train between Anaheim and Las Vegas. The train would run on an electrically generated magnetic field, propelling it along a pathway beside I-15. Known as a "maglev," the magnetically levitating cars ride atop a magnetic cushion a fraction of an inch above the elevated track, reducing friction and achieving speeds of upwards of 300 mph. The maglev could complete the one-way trip between Southern California and Southern Nevada in a mere 90 minutes, which would compete with airplanes for elapsed time between destinations.
Initially, the train's massive price tag (estimated at $9 billion in 2005, but revised upward to first $12 billion and then $40 billion) and other issues caused many to dismiss this "Gambler's Special" or "Sin City Express" as a high-tech pipe dream. Perhaps the the most pressing problem is that the maglev is proposed to be publicly funded. The Bush Administration had no interest in that and rejected a $1 billion plan to build a first leg of the maglev between Primm and Las Vegas.
However, as part of the economic recovery package, Congress and the Obama Administration have budgeted $8 billion to pursue the best railroad proposals, which has resurrected interest in some kind high-speed connection. In April, the maglev’s proponents met with federal Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and requested $1.8 billion to develop the segment between Vegas and Primm and to plan the rest of the line to Anaheim, promising to complete the 40-mile segment before the next election.
From 1988 till 2008, the maglev commission raised $10 million, more than $7 million in federal allocations and more than $2 million in state and local funding. Also during its tenure, the maglev has been supported by virtually all Nevada politicians, especially Senator Harry Reid (who was instrumental in bringing home the federal pork). Last year, Reid secured another $45 million, though it required matching funds of $11 million, which were raised earlier this year, freeing up the federal funds.
The maglev would be competing with dozens of other rail proposals. Two of them involve magnetic-field technology (one in Pittsburgh and another that would link Baltimore and Washington, D.C.,), though most employ the old steel rail and wheel tech. In fact, the Vegas-Anaheim maglev now has direct competition: the DesertXpress. This high-speed steel-rail train, which would achieve speeds of 150 mph and connect Vegas with Victorville, Calif., has been gaining steam lately.
DesertXpress backers raised $25 million to produce an environmental report, taking the lead in the paper race. In addition, Sen. Reid has recently and very vocally switched his allegiance from the maglev to the Xpress; Sig Rogich, Nevada’s pre-eminent Republican power broker who’s backing Democrat Reid’s 2010 reelection campaign, is a main supporter of the DesertXpress alternative) and in a statement on July 2 Reid rejected the maglev plan as ultimately unrealistic. "We simply don't have the money," he said.
He went on to deal a series of even more crushing and presumably definitive blows to the project, proposing that the $45 million allocated (thanks to his lobbying) in a 2008 federal transportation bill for the magnetic levitation train project be used on other unspecified efforts.
"Maglev is going nowhere. I have personally arranged the appropriation of millions and millions of dollars, and it has gone to pay salaries and studies," he added. It was in this same statement that he upwardly revised the estimated final cost to a colossal $40 billion. He still supports the proposed DesertXpress project that would connect Las Vegas and Victorville, Calif., which, with its nearly $4 billion price tag, seems almost cheap in comparison.
And true to Las Vegas form (think Las Vegas Strip Monorail), DesertXpress is the only train proposal submitted to the Federal Railroad Administration that would be privately financed. Backers, however, recently announced that they’re considering applying for low-interest government loans, aiming for 30% private funding and 70% debt. Experts can point to only one or two passenger rail projects that are profitable without public financing (think Las Vegas Strip Monorail).
DesertXpress’ main drawback, however, is pesky Victorville, a high-desert town 85 miles northeast of Los Angeles. Proponents claim that "the Vegas experience" could begin there, checking into their hotels, turning over their luggage to baggage handlers, and riding a luxury train through the desert. Critics, however, say that most potential passengers will either fly from L.A. to avoid the two-hour drive to Victorville, or drive another two hours all the way to Vegas. The problem is that unlike the maglev, DesertXpress can’t climb Cajon Pass (and blasting out a tunnel to level the grade is too costly).
To address the Victorville naysayers, DesertXpress is also proposing a 50-mile spur to connect Victorville with southern California’s north-south rail line at Palmdale, where passengers could connect to Los Angeles. If the overall plan is approved this year, DesertXpress claims it can raise private funding and break ground in 2010.
One thing that was an important (if not essential) precursor for either line to get built was for the White House to designate Nevada-California as a priority high-speed rail corridor, which happened earlier this month. When making the announcement U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood called the congestion on Interstate 15 "very bad for business, very bad for safety, and certainly very bad for the environment."
With nine other rail routes vying for the federal funds, the importance of the designation should not, however, be overrestimated. California will not include the Las Vegas leg in its application for federal money and as Federal Rail Administration spokesman Rob Kulat put it, "If they're going to apply for a loan, they can apply whether or not they're a designated corridor. It doesn't matter. It depends on the quality of application."
Watch this space for updates, but as this whole high-speed rail-link scenario has been rumbling on for three decades now, we recommend you don't hold your breath.
