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Question of the Day - 20 January 2010

Q:
We hear that whales can sometimes make or break a week, month, or even a quarter when it comes to a casino's gambling revenue. Is it possible, or has it ever happened, that a casino underperformed in a quarter due to one or two huge losses to a few whales, and in turn, its stocks dropped? Would the company inform the stock holders that it wasn't due to lower visitation or gambling volume, but simply due to some good luck by a few people?
A:

What you've heard is correct, although there aren't many super-high rollers ("whales") in the world whose play can have that kind of effect.

In Whale Hunt in the Desert, which came out in its second edition last year, it was estimated that there were seven to eight mega-whales globally who could fade $250,000/hand action at the tables, with maybe fifty more who could play at the $150,000 level, and another hundred worldwide who could afford $100,000 per hand.

That was written before the economic downturn and numerous high-level financial scandals that put some real cats among the pigeons over the past year or more, so we'd bank on some of those whales having been reduced to somewhat more sturgeon-like proportions these days, if not actually minnow-esque, while some of the survivors are doubtless less inclined to throw six-figure sums around in the name of recreation and complimentary fruit baskets (albeit very exotic ones).

Back in the aftermath of 9/11, Arnold Synder wrote a lead in the summer 2002 issue of Blackjack Forum, noting the direct effect that the terrorist attack had on the major Strip casinos, with depended-upon whales either unable or unwilling to travel:

"As an example of how much these big players can mean to the carpet joints, consider the fact that virtually every major casino on the Strip — except for Bellagio — reported a dramatic reduction in table-game win for the month of September, 2001. Why did Bellagio have a great month? Because noted whale of whales Kerry Packer happened to be staying at Bellagio the week of September 11, and he was unable to leave when all international flights were canceled! Bellagio cleaned up on his extended vacation there. Come October, like the rest, Bellagio was hurting too."

Which brings us to your specific question and the most notorious incidence of the exact scenario you outline, which involved a less welcome visit from Mr Packer to the MGM Grand, before it became part of MGM Mirage.

For those of you unfamiliar with Kerry Packer, he was a major Australian business tycoon and the richest man in that country, who died in 2005 at the age of 68. He was worth an estimated $5 billion from his media and gaming enterprises, which, with his fondness for blackjack and baccarat, definitely put him in that rariefied echelon of top-tier whales. And, over a six-day stay at MGM Grand in 1997, he experienced somewhat better luck than during his later sojourn at Bellagio: Betting a reported six hands of $200,000 at a time, he beat the house out of some $26 million. That's what you call a good run. Also a legendary "george" (big tipper), Packer's largesse on that trip included a $130,000 toke to a single-mom cocktail waitress.

But not everyone fared so well. Yes, that $26 million score was enough to sink MGM Grand's quarterly earnings report and yes, the stock price went down. Several executive heads rolled over the incident (which seems somewhat unfair), including president Larry Woolf, whose final job was to fly to Australia and inform Packer that he was banned from the property at the request of the shareholders, who had indeed been informed as to what had transpired and no longer welcomed his business. The latter move was not so smart since, on his next trip to Las Vegas, Packer was forced to stay elsewhere and picked Bellagio, where he reportedly dropped $20 million, not to mention the rumored $29 million he lost there during that subsequent extended 9/11 stay. No one lost their job over that.

Along the same lines, earlier this week gaming stats were released for the the latter months of 2009 and revealed that credit for the Strip's first increase in reported gambling revenue since 2007 was principally due to the action of high-rolling baccarat players. Baccarat is a high-stakes card game with a low house edge that's favored by Asian gamblers and is only offered in their high-limit areas by those big casinos that can afford to fade the level of potential short-term damage that a lucky streak at $100,000/hand can result in.

Last November's baccarat play accounted for a whopping $690.8 million in action and a $92.7 million win. The latter constituted nearly 20 percent of the Strip's total gaming revenue and a 136 percent increase from the previous year. According to the Las Vegas Sun, it's thought that this major score was due to the success of the major Las Vegas casino brands who've branched out to Macau and were responsible for luring Chinese whales to the Strip.

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