As promised in the September issue of LVA, throughout football season LVASports handicapping phenom Fezzik will be sharing his tips and expertise in a regular "Fezzik Friday" QoD, so be sure to send in your sports-betting questions. This is the first. Fezzik writes:
Great question!The answer is that the only thing that really matters is the first half of the games in Week 3 (it was the weekend of Aug. 27 this year). Look at the box scores of all the games' first halves and take note of the teams that were particularly impressive or unimpressive. That one half is a good indicator of how teams will perform at the start of the regular season.
Week 3 is known as the "dress rehearsal," because it's the only pre-season game in which teams play their starters for the entire first half to ensure they're ready. Prior to that, they play their scrubs and the guys trying to make the team. And for Week 4, the scrubs are back in, because teams don't want to risk their starters getting injured.
Some examples of good information coming from Week 3 first halves from this year include Green Bay vs. Indianapolis, where there score was 28-17 Green Bay in the first half. From this we can take that Green Bay is going to be a big-time "over" team, at least early in the year, consistently scoring high with a suspect defense (the Packers won the game 59-24). Conversely, the Chicago Bears looked terrible. When a team looks weak in Week 3, you should look back at Weeks 1 and 2 to confirm the diagnosis, which generally tallies with the Week 3 result. That was the case with Chicago this year, so we'll be looking to bet against the Bears early in the season.
Using Week 3's first-half results as a yardstick is a tried and true technique. You'll see the effects in the reaction of the betting markets, and you'll see them fast! In the Bears example, Detroit was getting 7 points in its regular-season opener against Chicago. But because of the analysis just discussed, the line is now down to 6 points. And the effect was even more pronounced in the Packer example, as the Green Bay/Kansas City total in Week 1 immediately skyed from 44.5 to 47! So while drawing the proper conclusions is valuable, you also have to make your bets quickly. And one more note: None of this applies to the Colts, because they just don't care about the pre-season.
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