In the second of our scheduled "Fezzik Fridays," the LVASports.com handicapping guru responds:
The answer is college sports totals (specifically football and basketball).
In order to have an advantage in sports betting, a line has to be "off" what the correct line should be, typically by at least a point, and preferably by a lot more. The problem with betting sides (picking the winner, either against the pointspread or a money line) in major professional sports like the NFL and NBA is that the power ratings and strengths of all teams are pretty well known, so it's not that difficult to make lines on these games that are fairly close to the "correct" numbers. In college sports, though, the turnover in coaches, players, and other personnel makes it difficult to set accurate lines on sides and almost impossible to set good totals. It's not unusual, for example, for a low-scoring "under" team to suddenly become an "over" team when an offense switching to a spread all-of-a-sudden begins to understand how to run it.
The best evidence that the books know they're dealing soft numbers is when you see low betting limits. A typical book in Las Vegas might take a $10,000 bet on an NFL side and be happy about it. But that same book will limit a college total to $500 or $1,000 (and still not be happy about it). Remember, the books will adjust their lines once the bettors indicate which way they're betting and it's not uncommon to see the closing number on college totals wind up 3-7 points away from the opener. This almost never happens in a typical NFL game.
Most touts and pundits focus on sides, not totals, because sides are sexier and more fun to promote. But it's the totals that those aspiring to win at sports betting should embrace as the easiest way to get an edge.
