Recreational players should look to play against the sharpest books they can find. In Nevada, that's M Resort and the Las Vegas Hilton.
I know this advice sounds contradictory, but it's not. Many Las Vegas bookmakers have morphed from gamblers to something more akin to "Entertainment Directors." They deal small limits and aggressively back off anyone they even marginally suspect of being a pro gambler. The result is that for a typical Monday Night Football game -- or any major nationally televised game, for that matter -- they get more action on the favorite and the over than anything else on their board ($50 at a time and often in parlays!). This avalanche of recreational money often makes the non-sharp books nervous, causing them to move their side and total numbers higher. Result? You'll find yourself making the bets you want to make into inflated numbers, which is never good.
The sharpest books, on the other hand, take large-volume bets from pros (who tend to prefer underdogs and unders). The effect is that they stay more balanced, which means they don't have to move their lines upward. Result? If your Packers are -7 on the street, there's a very good chance you can lay -6.5 at a book like the M.
Here's a real-life example. In the first game of the year, the Saints closed -4.5 to -5 at the sharpest books, but -5.5 at the "square" books around town. Even though the difference matters only when the game lands exactly on 5 (normally a pretty dead number), it still can, and does, come into play.
Saints 14. Vikings 9.
Yep, that was the final score of the season opener. If you were a recreational player and bet at one of the sharper books, you almost certainly won or pushed playing your Saints. But if you bet at one of the squarer locations, you would have been laying -5.5 (I even saw a 6!) and LOST!
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