Yeow! It sounds like you may have been yanked around by deals like this in the past. This type of offer is always vulnerable to fine-print finagling, but that's not the case here. Simply stated, you keep what you win and get a refund on what you lose. We'll discuss below how good this offer really is, but first we need to explain what this question is about.
Las Vegas Advisor members get special offers that we negotiate for them. Most are in our Member Rewards Book (MRB), which contains 130+ coupons for savings on everything from buffets to rooms. But we also release MROs (which stands for "Member Rewards Online"), and a recent online offer from Terrible's that rebates slots or video poker losses over a 24-hour period up to $100 is what's being discussed here. Despite the fact that this is a fantastic play with an expected value of between $37 and $84 (depending on how you play it), there's been quite a bit of confusion about how it works.
The common misunderstandings are thinking that you're allowed to play $100 through only one time (e.g., 80 hands at $1.25 each), that you have to lose the full $100 to get a rebate, and that you should get a rebate on your losing hands even when you cash out a profit. All of these assumptions are incorrect.
This is a straight loss rebate up to $100. That means you can put any amount of money into the machine and play as long as you like. There's no counting winning hands, losing hands, or anything for that matter -- if you lose, you get your money back; if you win, you keep the profit.
The power of this promotion is in the freeroll on losses, in that you get several opportunities to hit something big without risk. Think about how it typically works when you play video poker. You either lose your money, or you hit something big that makes you a winner for that session -- a quad, multiple quads, or even a royal. It works the same way here, only you get your money back if the good result doesn't materialize.
One way to simplify things (and make the accounting easy) is to put exactly $100 into the machine. Then only three things can happen: 1) You lose the entire $100; 2) you lose a portion of the $100, or 3) you win. In the first case, you return to the booth and get back $100 (in free-play). In the second, you return to the booth and get back the amount below $100 that you lost. In the third, you walk away with your $100 intact, plus the extra that you won. It's a powerhouse offer.
So now that you know how to play it, here's how to play it to your best advantage.
The most important thing is to make sure that if you lose, you lose the entire $100. The power of this promotion is in taking it to the limit for the rebate. But how you lose the limit requires a decision. Way back in 1998, the gambling mathematician (and author of our books The Theory of Blackjack and Extra Stuff) Peter Griffin provided an excellent analysis of this proposition. It doesn't apply perfectly here, because the promotion he analyzed allowed only one hour of play (it's 24 hours at Terrible's), but it's close enough. The analysis shows that playing the highest possible denomination yields the greatest expected return, but also reduces your chances of making any profit at all.
The difference is significant. The expected profit for playing 25¢ video poker is $37.50, compared to $84 for playing at the $5 level. However, the probability of finishing ahead (as opposed to just getting the rebate) drops from 41% at quarters to only 13% at $5. It comes down to what's more important to you: time on game or maximizing expected return. Most players are more interested in the former, so it makes sense to play this offer for your normal stakes.
Again, the important thing is not to get caught in the middle of the rebate. If you're playing quarters and find yourself down $60 or $70, switch to dollars for a better chance to hit big or lose it all. And don't forget to stop playing and get your rebate once you're down $100.
This is an excellent deal with very little risk and a very high upside. You can get it, along with many addtional casino-related perks, by becoming and LVA member. Click this link to read more about LVA membership and to sign up for a subscription at ShopLVA.com.
